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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, JANUARY 9th @ 9 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -14.5 | 43.5 | 29 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Buffalo | NY Jets | -16.5 | 40.5 | 28.5 | «« | ««« | ««« |
Kansas City | Denver | -11 | 45 | 28 | «« | ««« | «« |
Arizona | Seattle | -5.5 | 48 | 26.75 | «« | «« | |
Tennessee | Houston | -10.5 | 42.5 | 26.5 | « | «« | «« |
LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -3 | 49 | 26 | « | « | |
Tampa Bay | Carolina | -9 | 42 | 25.5 | « | «« | «« |
Minnesota | Chicago | -4 | 44.5 | 24.25 | |||
Dallas | Philadelphia | -5 | 43.5 | 24.25 | « | ||
LA Rams | San Francisco | -3.5 | 44.5 | 24 | |||
Green Bay | Detroit | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
New England | Miami | -6 | 40 | 23 | «« | ||
Las Vegas | LA Chargers | 3 | 49 | 23 | |||
Washington | NY Giants | -7 | 38 | 22.5 | ««« | ||
Baltimore | Pittsburgh | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | « | ||
New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | 40 | 21.75 | « | ||
Cleveland | Cincinnati | -5.5 | 37 | 21.25 | ««« | ||
Seattle | Arizona | 5.5 | 48 | 21.25 | |||
Detroit | Green Bay | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
San Francisco | LA Rams | 3.5 | 44.5 | 20.5 | |||
Chicago | Minnesota | 4 | 44.5 | 20.25 | |||
Philadelphia | Dallas | 5 | 43.5 | 19.25 | |||
Pittsburgh | Baltimore | 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | |||
Atlanta | New Orleans | 3.5 | 40 | 18.25 | |||
Denver | Kansas City | 11 | 45 | 17 | |||
Miami | New England | 6 | 40 | 17 | |||
Carolina | Tampa Bay | 9 | 42 | 16.5 | |||
Houston | Tennessee | 10.5 | 42.5 | 16 | |||
Cincinnati | Cleveland | 5.5 | 37 | 15.75 | |||
NY Giants | Washington | 7 | 38 | 15.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 14.5 | 43.5 | 14.5 | |||
NY Jets | Buffalo | 16.5 | 40.5 | 12 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Carson Wentz (Colts)
- Running Back: Jonathan Taylor (Colts), Devin Singletary (Bills), Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Darrel Williams (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Michael Pittman/T.Y. Hilton/Zach Pascal (Colts)
- Defense: Bills, Colts, Football Team, Browns
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Josh Allen (Bills), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
- Running Back: James Conner (Cardinals), DOnta Foreman (Titans), KeShawn Vaughn (Buccaneers)
- Receivers: Stefon Diggs/Cole Beasley/Dawson Knox (Bills), Mecole Hardman/Byron Pringle/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), A.J. Green/Christian Kirk/Antoine Wesley/Zach Ertz (Cardinals)
- Defense: Titans, Buccaneers, Patriots, Chiefs
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Justin Herbert (Chargers), Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Austin Ekeler (Chargers), Dalvin Cook (Vikings)
- Receivers: A.J. Brown/Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Titans), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Jared Cook (Chargers), Mike Evans/Cyril Grayson/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Saints, Ravens, Cowboys, Vikings