Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SATURDAY OCTOBER 23rd @ 11 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
LA Rams | Detroit | -16 | 50.5 | 33.25 | ««« | ««« | «« |
Arizona | Houston | -18 | 47.5 | 32.75 | ««« | ««« | ««« |
Kansas City | Tennessee | -4.5 | 57.5 | 31 | ««« | ««« | |
Tampa Bay | Chicago | -11.5 | 47 | 29.25 | «« | ««« | «« |
Green Bay | Washington | -8 | 47.5 | 27.75 | «« | ««« | « |
Tennessee | Kansas City | 4.5 | 57.5 | 26.5 | «« | «« | |
Baltimore | Cincinnati | -6 | 46 | 26 | « | « | |
Las Vegas | Philadelphia | -3 | 48.5 | 25.75 | |||
Atlanta | Miami | -2.5 | 47.5 | 25 | |||
New England | NY Jets | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | «« | ||
New Orleans | Seattle | -4.5 | 42.5 | 23.5 | « | ||
San Francisco | Indianapolis | -4 | 43 | 23.5 | « | ||
Carolina | NY Giants | -3 | 42.5 | 22.75 | « | ||
Philadelphia | Las Vegas | 3 | 48.5 | 22.75 | |||
Miami | Atlanta | 2.5 | 47.5 | 22.5 | |||
Cleveland | Denver | -1.5 | 41 | 21.25 | « | ||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | 6 | 46 | 20 | |||
NY Giants | Carolina | 3 | 42.5 | 19.75 | |||
Denver | Cleveland | 1.5 | 41 | 19.75 | |||
Washington | Green Bay | 8.5 | 47.5 | 19.5 | |||
Indianapolis | San Francisco | 4 | 43 | 19.5 | |||
Seattle | New Orleans | 4.5 | 42.5 | 19 | |||
NY Jets | New England | 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | |||
Chicago | Tampa Bay | 11.5 | 47 | 17.75 | |||
Detroit | LA Rams | 16 | 50.5 | 17.25 | |||
Houston | Arizona | 18 | 47.5 | 14.75 |
Bye Weeks: Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, LA Chargers
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (Rams), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Darrell Henderson (Rams), James Conner/Chase Edmonds (Cardinals), Darrel Williams (Chiefs), Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers), Aaron Jones (Packers)
- Receivers: Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Van Jefferson/Tyler Higbee (Rams), DeAndre Hopkins/Christian Kirk/A.J. Green/Rondale Moore (Cardinals), Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs),
- Defense: Cardinals
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Ryan Tannehill (Titans)
- Running Back: Derrick Henry (Titans)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Antonio Brown/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Davante Adams/Allen Lazard/Robert Tonyan Jr (Packers), A.J. Brown/Julio Jones/Anthony Firkser (Titans)
- Defense: Rams, Buccaneers, Patriots
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Running Back: Latavius Murray/LeVeon Bell (Ravens)
- Receivers: Marquise Brown/Sammy Watkins/Mark Andrews (Ravens)
- Defense: Saints, 49ers, Packers, Browns, Panthers