If Sunday involves Allen Robinson and Kyle Pitts scoring touchdowns, it will be a weird one. Through Sunday night, Deon Jackson was the RB1 on the week with a 17.2% target share. Just like we all predicted. Mike Gesicki is the TE1. Sure. We don’t need any more of his “Griddy” renditions anyway. Regardless, a wild week will always have a lesson or three. Here are a few of my takeaways after our first fantasy week with byes.
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Week 6 Results: (Projected) 17.0, (Actual) 11.8
To say I felt the Jets would win sounds like I’m hopping on some “anti-Rodgers” bandwagon, but it made sense at the time. And, to be clear, it wasn’t because New York had a strong offense. I did write up Breece Hall last week, which worked out, but it was more about their defense. Sauce Gardner is the truth, and they were fourth in pressure rate. It made me wonder how the Packers’ wide receivers would fare, and Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like an every-week option moving forward.
Advice Moving Forward
Bench Rodgers for streamers with higher ceilings. Green Bay’s passing offense doesn’t have the efficiency or explosiveness for a top-12 outcome.
It’s easy to look at the Packers’ offense and see something is lacking in it. Call it inconsistent. I say there’s no aggression. Regardless, there’s a specific element missing from this offense, and it becomes clear on third down.
It’s tough to quantify the loss of Davante Adams fully. But, his absence is glaring in obvious passing situations. Rodgers’s completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is at a three-low. He hasn’t had 8.1 air yards per attempt since before Adams joined the team. In other words, he’s passing shorter and still missing his targets. And if you look at his options, it’s easy to see why.
After becoming the Packers' primary option in 2018, Adams was top-10 in EPA per target. The Rodgers-Adams connection was impossible to stop. And now, Randall Cobb is their most-efficient receiver on third down. However, he may be out for an extended time.
Green Bay’s wide receivers collectively account for 14 first downs through six weeks. Adams had eight on his own by this time last year. His role in this specific scenario was critical to Rodgers’ success. But the team is yet to find a replacement, and the offense is cratering around them.
The deep-passing game takes a hit without a way to keep drives going. Rodgers’s completion rate on passes of 20-plus yards ranks 26th, and Mitchell Trubisky has more yards on deep throws. Without aggression or consistent efficiency, it’s tough to trust Rodgers in your starting lineup. If you can find better options on the waiver wire, use them while the Packers try to find their identity on offense.
Running Back: Travis Etienne, Jaguars
Week 6 Results: (Projected) 11.7, (Actual) 12.8
I’m still trying to process how Matt Ryan woke up and decided to throw 58 times in a game. Regardless, the divisional game was an unexpected shootout. And, amidst all the chaos, we saw more of Travis Etienne on the field for Jacksonville. He didn’t take over the backfield, but his touches yielded more production in the Jaguars’ comeback attempt. His current usage prompted a closer look, and it might be time to acquire him as the byes put us in tough positions.
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