All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.
PSA
Hey everyone, Devin Knotts here as I’ll be doing this article for the remainder of the season. This will be a continued evolving article, so please provide feedback on either Twitter.com/devinknottsfbg or knotts@footballguys.com.
Apologies for the delay in the release, we are targeting to release this much earlier in a given week, however due to some time management items I failed to do that in my first week. This will be an evolving article that much like the Cracking FanDuel article that I do, the intent is to make it as good as possible, and the feedback is absolutely critical.
KNOW YOUR ENEMIES
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Stacks
Top Stack
Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Brandin Cooks
This is a stack that not many are going to have simply because stacking a quarterback and running back in most cases has a negative correlation. However, with Keenan Allen out, the Chargers are going to need to rely on Ekeler as both a runner and receiver in order to move the ball in what is turning into a must win game. The Texans are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs at 29.6 per game. This is a week where running this back with Brandin Cooks who has yet to have a breakout game, but the Chargers have been torched by Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Davante Adams so far this season.
Under the Radar Stacks
Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton, and Davante Adams
Expect Davante Adams to be somewhat popular this week (15-20%), and most people will naturally pair him with Derek Carr as they’ll be looking to pair the more expensive receiver with their quarterback. However, Adams makes for the perfect reverse stack type player as we saw in Week 1 when he had over 50% of the team’s targets. Russell Wilson has yet to really get going thus far this season, and his roster percentage reflects that as it will likely be only 2-4%, but an offensive explosion is likely coming at some point for the Broncos.
Fade Stacks
Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Mark Andrews
There’s a lot to like about this game, but with that comes a significant amount of popularity. Between Mark Andrews (20-25%), Diggs (25-30%), and Josh Allen (10%), the popularity of this stack is just going to be too high. While the Ravens have struggled stopping the pass allowing 366 yards per game, they’re still a defense that on paper should be much better than what they are. The total in this game currently is only 51.5 which is the highest on the board, but not enough to
The other thing to think about when evaluating whether to fade this stack is how you build the rest of your roster. Let’s be honest, there just aren’t a lot of great value plays on a slate to make you feel confident in building with this stack. You’re likely going to be dealing with a significant amount of overlap due to the lack of options that you will need in order to afford this stack.
Position Breakdown
The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as
QUARTERBACK
The quarterback position is really going to be a stars and scrubs type approach this week, as pricing is somewhat difficult this week, so many people are going to be looking at the value type players.
High-End Play
The top-end of the quarterbacks is difficult this week due to the pricing and uncertainty of some of the lower end options.
Josh Allen- $8,400- 9.0%
If you’re taking one quarterback this week, you should strongly consider Josh Allen. The roster percentages are a bit skewed, as some people will see the Ravens name with the price and avoid Josh Allen this week. However, this is a defense that just allowed 321 yards to Mac Jones last week, and are allowing 366 yards passing per game. This is a defense that has had Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters in each of their last two games, so the results are incredibly shocking just how bad this defense has been.
Allen has been magnificent so far this season as he is coming off of a 400-yard passing game, while rushing for 40-yards. There are very few quarterbacks who can provide the rushing and passing combination that Josh Allen provides, and to get him at sub-10% pricing could be a massive differentiator this week.
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