Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly in example and completed dynasty trades.
*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*
Theme of the Week: Bridge the Gap with Geno Smith
Geno Smith is QB11 in points-per-game and one of the great stories of the opening month. Dynasty at large ignored the Seattle quarterback situation overall in the offseason and expected an addition to the depth chart once Russell Wilson was traded. If anything, the dialogue was "Seattle must really like Drew Lock." Instead, Seattle has started Smith with confidence and the results have been staggering. Smith is lapping the league in completion rate (77%) and is among the league leaders in yards-per-attempt (7.9). Smith also has handled pressure well with few turning into sacks. Smith has also fueled top-25 production out of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the two most prominent dynasty assets on the roster. If you have any weakness or lacking of depth in premium formats, Smith is one of the best bangs for the buck as an acquisition. Smith is likely to have job security through this season and rewriting his career arc to have future starting opportunities is within reach. Yet, the trade market is highly skeptical of both.
- Key trade idea: David Bell, 23 3rd for Geno Smith
This is the most expensive trade I could find for acquiring Smith. Bell is off to a slow start and is firmly on your dynasty bench, plus the upside in Cleveland is the WR2 role with Amari Cooper there for now. The key is what Smith provides as a supplement to a team's quarterback depth chart. He has rushing upside (7-49-1 in Week 4) and has a clean passing profile (see above plus his 6:2 ratio for touchdowns and interceptions). Bye weeks are coming, the injuries will keep occurring at quarterback (Patriots, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys, 49ers, Saints are a few already or still affected), and plenty are underperforming expectations (Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields). Offering a 3rd plus a smaller piece is an ideal offer and in line with the marketplace, especially if Smith sits as a team's QB3 or lower, or the team is falling out of the playoff race at 1-3 or 0-4.
Theme of the Week: Javonte Williams, Jeff Wilson
Williams' season-ending knee injury offers an opportunity for contending and non-contending teams to merge in win-win trades. Williams offers production in the future and can pair well with shifting a team's focus towards 2023. With multiple ligements involved, Williams' knee injury clouds his start for next season.
As for Jeff Wilson, the 49ers are among the lowest HLO teams in the NFL, pointing to a small weekly keyhole for Wilson to sharpshoot upside. Deebo Samuel mixed into the backfield and Wilson is sparsely used in the passing game as detriments. Flip the starting running back (for now) before he turns back into an opportunity pumpkin.
- Key trade idea: Courtland Sutton, Tyler Allgeier for Javonte Williams
This is on the low side of what I expect of the market to buy Williams, but the idea is a roadmap. Offering a starting wide receiver with upside in Sutton (mid-career) plus Allgeier has a window of at least a month of starting opportunity (upside from there) with Cordarrelle Patterson out. This is perfect construction of a team adding Williams to a non-contender.
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