Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday Night Special
Aaron Rodgers MORE than 15.5 fantasy points
Ryan Tannehill MORE than 14.5 fantasy points
- This is a correlation play taking advantage of the Thursday Night Football boost (3.5X) and targeting a pair of numbers that feel too low despite down years from Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill.
- Even with all of his struggles this season, Rodgers has topped 15.5 fantasy points in 8 of 10 games (80%).
- The Titans are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game (20.2) to opposing quarterbacks.
- The breakout three touchdown performance last week by Christian Watson could prove to be a turning point for the Packers season. For the first time since Davante Adams left, it feels like the Packers have found a legitimate vertical threat.
- Tannehill has topped 14.4 points in 14 of his 24 games over the last two seasons (58%).
4: Spotting Opportunities
Daniel Jones MORE than 18.5 fantasy points
Amon-Ra St. Brown MORE than 13.5 fantasy points
- This is a correlation play featuring two players who rank highly in terms of opportunity this weekend.
- For Daniel Jones, the unique fantasy opportunity this week comes from his rushing ability. Jones is fourth amongst all quarterbacks (behind only Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen) in rushing yards this season (387) and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns.
- The Lions are allowing the second-most rushing yards and most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
- Jones projects for roughly 8.0 fantasy points as a runner this weekend, which means he may not have to do too much through the air to hit his over.
- The Lions have given up the seventh-most passing yards per game and the seventh-most passing touchdowns per game. This is an elite matchup across the board for Jones.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is back to seeing crazy usage. His 11 targets and single rushing attempt last week are strong even at first glance. However, if you watched closely how the Lions were using St. Brown, he had even more opportunity than the target numbers would indicated.
- It was no fluke that St. Brown caught 91% of his Week 10 targets given that most of them were plays designed specifically to get the ball to St. Brown — shovel passes, swing passes to the flat, and wide receiver screens.
- The matchup is strong for St. Brown. The Giants are a blitz-heavy team and St. Brown leads the NFL with 41% target per route run against Cover 0 or Cover 1 looks.
3: Bears-Falcons Part 1
Darnell Mooney MORE than 10.5 fantasy points
Drake London MORE than 9.5 fantasy points
- This Bears-Falcons matchup has the second highest total (49.5 points) of Week 11 and has the potential for above average fantasy performances.
- The Bears offense has come alive over the last four weeks, scoring at least 29 points in each of the last four games.
- Chicago is also playing faster and while the offense is much improved, the defense giving up a ton of points after trading away two top defenders. The Bears have given up 38.3 PPG over their last three.
- The Falcons give up the most fantasy points in the league to opposing wide receivers. Atlanta will be without cornerback Casey Hayward and top corner A.J. Terrell is questionable.
- Darnell Mooney has had at least 50 receiving yards in six of his last seven games.
Bears WR Darnell Mooney since Week 4:— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) November 16, 2022
- 437 receiving yards (13th) on 32 receptions (17th)
- 5 contested catches (t-14th), 0 drops
- 14 explosive receptions (7th)
- 2.06 yards per route run (t-18th)
Chicago is 27th in passing yards over the span, 300 yards below average
- With Khalil Herbert out and both Cole Kmet and David Montgomery banged up, Mooney projects for an even greater share of targets than normal.
- Drake London has cooled off some after a hot start but has at least five targets in three straight games and is the clear WR1 in this Atlanta offense.
- Over the last three weeks, opposing WR1s have 8 catches for 113 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game against the Bears.
2: Bears-Falcons Part 2
Cordarrelle Patterson MORE than 12.5 fantasy points
David Montgomery MORE than 11.5 fantasy points
- As noted in the previous section, this Bears-Falcons matchup has shootout potential and should be ripe for above average fantasy performances from the top players on each team.
- With Khalil Herbert out, David Montgomery projects for a healthy workload as he should return to a true lead back role. This 11.5 point prop is my single favorite over of the week.
- The Falcons have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
- The Bears have been even more generous to opposing backs, allowing the third-most fantasy points.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has scored 18-plus fantasy points in half his games this season.
1: Toney Time
Gerald Everett LESS than 39.5 receiving yards
Kadarius Toney MORE than 37.5 receiving yards
- Gerald Everett has been limited in practice with a groin injury. The read here is that he will be active on Sunday but operating at less than full health.
- In his last five games, Everett has topped 39.5 receiving yards just once.
- Kadarius Toney has shown tantalizing flashes of playmaking ability whenever he has been on the field. If he gets snaps, he is going to rack up yardage and fantasy points.
- In Week 10, he saw his first extended action for the Chiefs (44% of snaps) and had a strong 4-57-1 receiving line on five targets.
- The Chiefs could be forced to give Toney even more snaps this weekend. JuJu Smith-Schuster is in the concussion protocol, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been out with an illness, and Mecole Hardman is out with an injury.