Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Thursday Night Special
Dak Prescott MORE than 19.5 fantasy points
Malik Willis MORE than 10.5 fantasy points
- We are going with a 3.5X correlation play here based upon the belief that the Titans rest key starters on both sides of the ball in a game that is meaningless for their playoff hopes and actually run the offense through Willis, with Derrick Henry getting the night off.
- The Titans defense gives up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and could be without Jeffrey Simmons and other key pass rushers.
- Prescott has topped 20 fantasy points in five of his last eight games and has thrown multiple touchdowns in all but one of those outings.
- This is a great fantasy spot for Malik Willis, and his 10.5-point prop is my favorite of Week 17.
With the #Titans playoff hopes likely resting in the hands of Malik Willis, Mike Vrabel and Todd Downing should use tonight as a laboratory to try out some new, Malik-centric offensive ideas. I took a look at what that approach might look like.https://t.co/i7QE0SWssA
— Mike Herndon (@MikeHerndonNFL) December 29, 2022
- In his three starts this season, Willis has attempted an average of 16.3 passes per game, and the game plan has clearly been to ride Derrick Henry and the defense. That game plan is not an option this week with Henry and key defenders likely sitting out. The Titans should play loose with nothing to lose in this meaningless game the offense should actually run through Willis for the first time in his career.
- Willis put up 10.3 fantasy points just as a runner last week on seven carries and is a virtual lock to run it more this week than he ever has given that Henry is out. It just takes one touchdown run to make hitting the over of 10.5 points a cakewalk.
4: Kansas City Rolls
Isiah Pacheco MORE than 61.5 rushing yards
Latavius Murray LESS than 55.5 rushing yards
- The Chiefs are motivated to finish the regular season strong. Kansas City is two wins away from locking up a Top 2 seed in the AFC (with a bye in the cards if the Bills lose a tossup game to the Bengals Monday night). If last week is any indication, the Broncos have packed it in for the year.
- This is a 3X correlation play based upon a game script in which the Chiefs jump out to a comfortable lead and lean on Pacheco while the Broncos have to throw more than they want to in order to keep up.
Isiah Pacheco has run the ball 62 times when the Chiefs have a double-digit lead. That is the most carries for a player with a double-digit lead this season.
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) December 28, 2022
- We saw this exact game script play out just three weeks ago in Denver. Pacheco rushed for 70 yards on 13 carries as the Chiefs built a 27-0 first-half lead while Murray was limited to just 32 yards on 8 carries with the Broncos attempting to mount a comeback.
- Patrick Mahomes II is 10-0 in his career against the Broncos, and most of the wins have been comfortable.
- Over his last seven, Pacheco is averaging 76.9 rushing yards per game. He has rushed for more than 61.5 yards in six of his last seven games.
- In his last nine games, Latavius Murray has rushed for 50-plus yards just twice.
3: Shootout in Detroit Part 1
Jared Goff MORE than 255.5 passing yards
Justin Fields MORE than 165.5 passing yards
- This is a positive correlation play based upon the belief that this game is as high scoring as Las Vegas expects. The Lions have the highest implied team total of Week 17 at 29.3 points. The Bears have a relatively healthy 23.3-point implied team total that is 15% higher than their season average.
Fun to see the Lions with the highest implied team total for Fantasy Championship week pic.twitter.com/xXNw67e60H
— Dan Hindery (@Hindery) December 29, 2022
- The prior meeting between these teams was a 31-30 shootout in which Justin Fields had 314 total yards of offense and 4 touchdowns.
- This is a spot where the Bears have no pressure but can play spoiler to a division rival trying to make the playoffs for the first time in many years. Since throwing for 254 yards in Week 13 against the Bears, Fields has had a couple of down games as a passer, but those came against the excellent pass defenses of the Eagles and Bills. The task is much easier this week.
- The Lions have allowed the third-most passing yards (4,166) to opposing quarterbacks this season.
- Goff has thrown for 330-plus yards in three of his last four games. The lone exception was 252 yards in bad weather against the elite Jets pass defense. Goff is averaging 303.4 passing yards per game in the five weeks since DJ Chark has been back in the lineup, and the passing offense looks different with a legitimate deep threat to keep defenses honest.
2: Shootout in Detroit Part 2
D.J. Chark Jr MORE than 54.5 receiving yards
Cole Kmet MORE than 35.5 receiving yards
- We are going to double-dip with MORE calls in this Bears-Lions matchup with another positive correlation play on the passing attacks.
- For the reasons we just noted above, we like the upside of the passing offenses in this matchup. One of those reasons is the presence of D.J. Chark Jr, who has had a major impact since returning to the lineup in Week 12.
- Over his last four games, Chark has averaged 79.5 receiving yards. Over that stretch, he has had at least 94 receiving yards in all but one game (a matchup against star rookie Sauce Gardner).
- Chark has averaged 15.9 yards per target over the past month and has made a number of impressive grabs on deep balls.
GOFF TO DJ CHARK WHAT A CATCH #OnePride pic.twitter.com/93cf7kyfof
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) December 24, 2022
- The Bears defense has been vulnerable against speedy outside wide receivers. Just two weeks ago, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 307 receiving yards against Chicago’s banged-up secondary.
- After a string of tough matchups, Cole Kmet is once again in a good spot against a Lions defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
- In his last two matchups against Detroit, Kmet has averaged 9.0 targets, 6.0 catches, and 69.5 receiving yards per game.
1: Last Call for Brady?
Tom Brady MORE than 260.5 passing yards
Sam Darnold MORE than 189.5 passing yards
- With a win, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers clinch the NFC South. With a loss, Tampa’s odds of making the playoffs drop to 33%, and the Buccaneers need help to get in. With Brady possibly set to retire after the season, this could be it for the all-time great. We have 20 years of evidence that Brady usually shows up and plays well in key games like this one.
- While Brady’s efficiency numbers are way down (adjusted net yards per attempt have dropped from 7.41 last year to 5.88 this season), Brady is still putting up solid passing numbers because the volume is massive. He leads the NFL with 671 passing attempts and is easily on pace for a career-high in passes.
- Brady has thrown 40-plus passes 12 times in his last 13 games. He is averaging a whopping 46.9 attempts per game since Week 3.
- In his last seven games against Carolina, Brady has thrown for 290-plus yards five times.
- Sam Darnold has quietly been pretty good since returning to the starting lineup for the Panthers in Week 12. He has led the team to a 3-1 record. For the first time in his entire career, Darnold has gone four straight games without a turnover.
I don’t remember seeing Sam Darnold handle any sort of blitz this well before.
— Jared Feinberg (@JRodNFLDraft) December 29, 2022
Lions went C0 and sent the mansion. Darnold made them pay with a perfect deep ball to DJ Moore.
Darnold is able to get to the top of his drop, hitch…let it fly. In previous yrs, that’s a sack on 14. pic.twitter.com/1GFBWcSV3q
- Darnold has thrown for 225-plus yards each of his last two games on the strength of 10.56 yards per passing attempt and a 114.6 QB rating.
- Darnold has thrown for 190-plus in both of his career starts against Tampa Bay.