Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites. It offers a fun and unique product. There are no salary caps and no need for lineup builders. You do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) plays in the same game, you can use correlation to your advantage. For example, if you assume that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback also is more likely to throw for more yards. This weekly article will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Unders in Buffalo
Joe Mixon LESS than 16.5 fantasy points
Gabe Davis LESS than 12.5 fantasy points
- The Bengals have lost a starting offensive lineman to a serious knee injury in each of their last three games and will be starting three backups against a tough Buffalo defense.
The Bengals projected offensive line (per @PFF) against the Bills this week without La'el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Jonah Williams. pic.twitter.com/pSOhUFKEOO— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) January 18, 2023
- Over his last six games, Mixon has averaged just 44.7 rushing yards on 11.7 carries per game.
- The Bengals offensive line woes have led to fewer snaps for Mixon, who is a less trusted pass-blocking option than Samaje Perine. Perine out-snapped Mixon 31 to 26 in last week’s playoff win over the Ravens.
- The Bills allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
- Gabe Davis has been a boom or bust fantasy option all season. He had just four games with more than 12.5 fantasy points in 15 regular season starts (26.6%).
- The Bengals give up the tenth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
4: WRs stay hot in Philly
DeVonta Smith MORE than 65.5 receiving yards
Richie James MORE than 49.5 receiving yards
- DeVonta Smith has four straight games with more than 65.5 receiving yards. He has averaged 105.3 receiving yards per game over that stretch.
- Over the first half of the 2022 season, Smith had eight-plus targets three times in eight games (37.5%). In the final nine games, Smith had eight-plus targets in 100% of his games.
- The primary weakness of Wink Martindale’s aggressive defensive scheme has historically been a tendency to give up big plays to talented outside wide receivers like Smith.
Jalen Hurts had the best QBR in football this year vs Cover 1--in part because he killed teams with go balls to AJ Brown and Devonta Smith.— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) January 18, 2023
The Giants played a lot of cover 1 in week 14 and got punished for it. pic.twitter.com/EfQJSR8tbC
- In his last five games, Richie James has topped 60 receiving yards three times.
- James was considered important enough to the Giants offense that he did not play a single offensive snap against the Eagles in the meaningless Week 18 game. In the Week 14 matchup against the Eagles, James had seven catches for 61 yards and a touchdown while playing a season-high 91% of the snaps.
- James has averaged 7.8 targets per game over his last five.
3: Value in Dallas
Ezekiel Elliott MORE than 39.5 rushing yards
Brandon Aiyuk MORE than 50.5 receiving yards
- We are getting some value on the MORE side on both of these props. The Footballguys consensus projections have Aiyuk at 58 receiving yards and Elliott at 42 rushing yards.
- Elliott has rushed for 40-plus yards in 13-of-16 games this season (81.3%).
- The 49ers rush defense has been elite this season and held the Cowboys running game in check in the playoffs last season. While it will not be easy sledding for Elliott and the Cowboys running game, the Cowboys are likely to stick with the run game regardless to slow down the 49ers aggressive pash rush.
- Aiyuk has had at least 59 receiving yards in four straight games.
- Since Brock Purdy took over as starter, Aiyuk has had more than 50.5 receiving yards in all but one game.
- With Deebo Samuel’s breakout game against the Seahawks last week, expect him to be treated as the 49ers WR1 this week by the Cowboys defense. That should lead to favorable matchups (and less snaps lined up against Trevon Diggs) for Aiyuk.
The Cowboys’ defense is 32nd in DVOA defending WR2 this season.— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) January 17, 2023
They give up the MOST yards per game to WR2 this season at 63.7 yards per game.
Good luck defending Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
2: Not a ground game
Saquon Barkley LESS than 68.5 rushing yards
Miles Sanders LESS than 65.5 rushing yards
- Expect both teams to have success through the air but struggle to establish a ground game in this Giants-Eagles matchup.
- In their Week 13 matchup, Barkley ran for just 28 yards against the Eagles. He has not run for more than 40 yards in a game against Philadelphia since 2019.
- The Eagles have allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this season.
- While Sanders had a big game against the Giants in Week 14, he has not topped 65 yards since.
- The Eagles have been rotating backs more frequently of late, with Sanders playing just 40% of the snaps in each of the last two.
- The Giants have shown improvement of late against the run. In their opening round win over the Vikings, New York gave up just 61 total rushing yards.
1: Shootout in KC
Patrick Mahomes II MORE than 24.5 fantasy points
Trevor Lawrence MORE than 18.5 fantasy points
- This is a strong correlation play with each quarterback more likely to have a big game if their opponent has success.
- After a disastrous start to his first playoff game, Lawrence rebounded to throw for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns to lead a comeback win.
- In the last three games in which the opponent scored more than 20 points, Lawrence has averaged 324.7 passing yards per game and scored at least four total touchdowns in each game.
- In three playoff games last season, Patrick Mahomes II averaged 352.3 passing yards and 3.7 passing touchdowns per game. He also averaged 39 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game.
- Mahomes threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns in a Week 9 win over the Jaguars.
- Mahomes has thrown at least three touchdown passes in 7-of-11 career postseason starts. He already has the fourth-most postseason games with three touchdowns in NFL history.
NFL QBs with most postseason games with at least 3 TD passes:— McKenzie Nelson (@McKenzieMNelson) January 19, 2023
Tom Brady - 13
Joe Montana - 9
Aaron Rodgers - 8
Patrick Mahomes II - 7