Welcome to Week 15 of the 2022 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. Topics are now split into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Long-Term Outlook for Late-Round/UDFA Rookie Performers (see below)
- Fantasy Playoff Lineup Decisions with Guts
- Love/Hate: The NFL Draft Edition
- Fantasy Nightmare: Ravens-Browns
Long-Term Outlook for Late-Round/UDFA Rookie Performers
Matt Waldman: We've had a few rookies show something down the stretch with low draft capital.
- RB Zonovan Knight
- WR Rashid Shaheed
- QB Brock Purdy
- RB Kevin Harris
- RB Jordan Mason
A. Which one of these players would you consider for your starting lineup in a 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 Flex PPR format?
B. Which one of these players will you be considering most for a 20-man dynasty roster?
C. Which one of these players will you be considering most for a 40-man dynasty roster?
D. Which one of these players will you be considering for a 20-man re-draft roster?
Go.
Jason Wood: Knight is a starter right now and for my re-draft format. He's averaged 15.3 carries, 77 yards (5.0 per carry), 3.3 receptions, and 20-plus receiving yards. Head coach Robert Saleh told the media Knight wasn't going anywhere upon Michael Carter's return, and so far, he's kept his word. With the juiciest matchup of the year looming against a sieve-like Lions defensive front, Knight should have a monster game for playoff-bound fantasy teams.
On a 20-player roster, there's little room for developmental players, so it's Knight, and it's not close. Your roster is a redraft roster, with the bench being heavily skewed toward incoming rookies. Although Knight's path to dynastic value is blocked by Breece Hall, we've learned to distrust a running back's return to dominance coming off significant knee injuries. You may be dropping Knight for a hot waiver claim in 2023, but if Hall's recovery lags, Knight could be an every-week starter running behind a powerful Jets line.
40-man rosters require diving deep. While Knight would be the pick, we also should assume he's unavailable in those formats. I would argue that most 40-man dynasty roster leagues also utilize a 2QB or Superflex lineup, in which case the answer is Brock Purdy. Purdy was "Mr. Irrelevant" in the draft, and plenty of scouts doubted his NFL bonafides because of an unusually weak arm. But injuries have thrust him into the 49ers lineup and while he's not lighting up scoreboards like Kurt Warner did stepping in for Trent Green, Purdy has looked capable. A capable signal caller playing for the 49ers has Superflex value.