Draft Strategy: Love, Hate, and Risk-Reward at the Early Turn

Love and Happiness

You'll be good to me, I'll be good to you

We'll be together, yeah

We'll see each other

Walk away with victory, yeah

Soul singer Al Green knows a few things about Love and Hate. We're not going to apply the stakes Green faced with Love and Hate into fantasy football.

We'll keep it at lowercase love and hate. Quotation marks around "love" and "hate." Words used with happiness and frustration, but the feelings are gone no longer after you shared them. 

Fantasy football, not grit ball. Never grit ball. 

This week, I share several drafts from the early turn in 12-team PPR formats. The first set of drafts is one where I adhered closely to consensus views, and it led to results I loved. 

The second set of drafts is where I adhered closely to consensus, and it led to results I hated. In the third set of drafts, I strategically veered away from consensus at various points, and it led to results I liked, if not loved. 

I'll be doing this analysis over the next three weeks with drafts at the early turn, the middle, and the late turn. 

Strategic Thoughts About Drafting

Here's a basic overview of how I approach drafts. 

• I don't enter drafts with a pre-set position-by-round strategy.
• I'm using my rankings, Average Draft Position (ADP) values, and a historical understanding of positional value to guide my decision-making.
• The range of variation with ADP widens as the draft unfolds; my late-round picks will often veer significantly from consensus, regardless of whether I'm sticking close to it in the early and middle rounds.
• I believe in prioritizing upside in the late rounds.
• I have a clearer vision of what I want to do from Rounds 13-20 -- my endgame -- than in the early rounds, and I use that clarity to guide my early and middle games. 

You'll see as this unfolds.

Love: Early-Turn Drafts Adhering Close to Consensus

Here's Draft No.1. All drafts listed are for 20-player rosters with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2-3 RBs, 3-4 WRs, 1-2 TEs, 1 DEF, and 1 K with PPR scoring.

Love Draft No. 1: Opening Rounds (1-6)

Most of the time, I'm seeking safe picks who are at or below consensus value. There will be occasional outliers who I have valued so far above the consensus that my projections still consider them values at the spots where I "reached" within 20-25 picks to take them. 

• Jahmyr Gibbs: Volume, versatility, big-play ability, offensive line, and surrounding skill talent make Gibbs a "safe pick." 
• DeVonta Smith: The clear-cut WR1 in a new offense that should be better than last year's schematic disaster. The OL, volume, big-play ability, and surrounding skill talent make Smith safe. 
• Breece Hall: Hall has been competent to excellent without a good QB. This year, he has the OL and a competent QB. Based on his contract extension, Hall should earn RB1-caliber touches even if there are three RBs contributing. Hall's versatility and big-play ability give him a high ceiling. 
• David Montgomery: The Texans have a better OL and a strong defense; Montgomery should earn RB1 volume. 
• Mike Evans: His age and recent injury history are risky, but his new scheme and caliber of surrounding talent are strong enough to take a chance on a late-career renaissance. 
• Chris Godwin Jr.: Fully healthy and no worse than the 1-B as the slot receiver, expect Godwin to deliver no worse than fantasy WR2 value in PPR formats. 

What I Love: In terms of skills, all six options have no worse than a fantasy RB2/WR2 floor and top-five RB1/WR1 ceilings. You want high-floor/high-ceiling picks in this range. 

What Concerns Me: Evans and Godwin have recent track records with ailments that could make them riskier than up-and-comers Jameson Williams and Michael Wilson, who I selected in this range in other drafts. 

Love Draft No. 1: Middle Rounds (7-12)

The opening game is usually where I take RBs and WRs because the separation in value among QB1s after the top 2-3 his historically small. I'll take at least one QB in this range unless there are 2-3 tremendous value propositions available in the late rounds. 

This is also the range where I'm targeting starters with higher ceilings than consensus believes, or options with floors and starter ceilings. Often, the positions I select complement my early-game picks.  

Also, an undervalued TE with top-five upside, given his skills and surrounding talent, finds his way into the mix.

• Parker Washington/Courtland Sutton: I'm all-in on Washington, and he's value just a pick above my draft spot, so it's possible he'll be gone. Washington has a WR2 floor and a WR1 ceiling in the Jaguars offense, which should translate to a fantasy top-30 WR floor and a fantasy top-15 WR ceiling if the Jaguars spread the wealth successfully. Washington is gone; Sutton should at least deliver a top-30 floor and a top-12 ceiling with Jaylen Waddle widening zones with his speed. 
• Rachaad White/Jacory Croskey-Merritt: As I wrote about here, the selection depends on who is favored to become the lead back. Still, White should be a bargain regardless because his the favorite to earn the lead role as a receiver from the backfield. 
• Brock Purdy: An excellent anticipator with terrific touch when layering the football, Purdy's field-reading skills and maneuverability in the pocket make him a dangerous operator of one of the league's best offenses. He has a top-five fantasy ceiling. 
• Baker Mayfield: Not healthy last year, it showed on tape, but fantasy GMs are devaluing Mayfield as if injury wasn't a legitimate excuse. It was, and a healthy Godwin is enough to offset Mike Evans -- just in a different way of earning the production. 
• Mark Andrews: Isaiah Likely is no longer a thorn in the side of Andrews' fantasy potential. Baltimore did little to upgrade the receiving corps right away, and we should see Andrews benefit from play-action passes. He has a fantasy TE1 floor with a top-five ceiling if the new offense clicks immediately. 
• Keaton Mitchell: A boom-bust RB4 on my depth chart, Mitchell is the back I drafted thus far who lacks a legitimate bell-cow ceiling if thrust into a lead role. Still, the big-play ability makes up for it, and if there's a coach who could make me wrong about the undersized speedster as a clear-cut RB1, it's Mike McDaniel. 

What I Love: My quarterbacks. Both have top-five ceilings and good surrounding talent. They are players at the sweet spot of skills and value.

What Concerns Me: Picking the wrong back in Washington and forsaking a startable WR with a higher floor than Keaton Mitchell.

Love Draft No. 1: Late Rounds (13-20)

At this stage, I'm fine with taking players I value far more than consensus. With this team, I only had one, and that was with the last pick in the draft. It means I could look into a top defense and kicker and have the flexibility to take them earlier than the final three rounds. 

• Juwan Johnson: I like Oscar Delp's long-term prospects, but Johnson and Tyler Shough have chemistry, and the consensus is treating Johnson's career year as a fluke. I don't think New Orleans upgraded its skill talent enough to make Johnson expendable this year. 
• Denver Defense: A strong unit that performed well in a division that looked tough on paper last year. 
• Malik Washington: No one is recommending Miami receivers, but there's a niche still willing to take a chance on Malik Willis' legs. Washington has the best all-around game and should see fantasy-worthy PPR volume.
• Braelon Allen: Isaiah Davis could factor, but look for Allen to be the RB1 if Breece Hall gets hurt. 
• De'Zhaun Stribling: The player I mentioned this spring that I'd guess I'm most likely to be wrong about pre-draft, Stribling has earned the trust of Purdy as a route runner. I'm expecting that's for Stribling's projected role as a zone option replacing Jauan Jennings. If the corps stays healthy, Stribling might have fantasy WR3 upside. If not, Stribling's ceiling could be top 20. 
• Kayshon Boutte: I'll bet a 17th-round pick on the hope the Patriots wise up and keep Boutte as the big slot or rotate him with A.J. Brown inside and outside at flanker and slot. 
• Harrison Mevis: The Chargers' kicker should get a lot of opportunities. 
• Jaylin Noel: My offseason candidate to become the best value of the summer. 

What I Love: Johnson and Washington are starters. Boutte and Noel have starter skills. I got a redundancy option at RB for one of my starters. I had the freedom to move around at beat the runs at defense and kicker.

What Concerns Me: Allen could lose his role to Isiah Davis if his struggles early in relieve of Breece Hall. Boutte could be traded late in training camp and not know the offense well enough to play to his potential. Johnson loses his grip on the Saints' TE1 role or winds up in a meaningful committee split. 

Draft No. 2 I Love

Love Draft No. 2: Opening Rounds (1-6)

Since the spot I'm drafting is the same, I'll only note the differences from previous teams. 

• Bijan Robinson: The same reasons as taking Jahmyr Gibbs except less compelling QB play. 
• Emeka Egbuka: I'm not expecting a 2026 Jaxon Smith-Njigba campaign from Egbuka, who dropped his share of targets last year. While Baker Mayfield did him no favors and should rebound, I'm banking on Chris Godwin Jr. having a lot more left with his game than Cooper Kupp. Still, Egbuka as 1-A in this offense could lead to low-end fantasy WR1 value. 
• Jameson Williams: Amon-Ra St. Brown may be the clear-cut WR1, but Williams has become the clear-cut No.2 option in this passing game and the one with the best shot of delivering fantasy WR1 value on minimal targets. As my WR3? No doubt. 
• Michael Wilson: Now handling the clear-cut WR1 role in the Cardinals' offense -- the Puka Nacua role in LA's similar scheme -- Wilson's targets per game weren't too far off Nacua's to consider him a strong value. Even if Carson Beck takes over, Wilson will get the WR1 workload at a WR4 price for my team.

What I Love: High-floor/high-ceiling WRs with youth on their side. 

What Concerns Me: Nothing beyond injuries, and a slight dip in quality targets from Beck to Wilson.

Love Draft No. 2: Middle Rounds (7-12)

• Jonathon Brooks: Carolina still may be a year away from an emerging offense, but a healthy and acclimated Brooks is more talented than a fresh Rico Dowdle -- and you know I've been a Dowdle fan. Solid fantasy RB2 upside with no worse than a bye-week floor.
• Matthew Stafford: After last year, it's surprising Stafford is available this late. Age is a big factor, but Stafford has always been a hard worker in the gym, and he has consulted Tom Brady to generate a quality training regimen. The Rams are an elite offense that's balanced, on the cutting edge of testing defenses, and Stafford has lost little as a thrower, which means his arm is still better than most. 
• Khalil Shakir: No worse than the Bills WR3 and likely its WR2 with solid fantasy WR3 production. 

What I Love: Stafford and Mayfield this late? Few trap doors with their games this year.

Love Draft No. 2: Late Rounds (13-20)

• Brian Robinson Jr: Outfitted with a strong offensive line, Robinson as bell-cow upside value as Bijan Robinson's understudy and could offer by-week value.
• Ray Davis: Another good back with the skills to carry the ground game behind a good OL if his starter gets hurt.  

Draft No. 3 I Love

This is probably the riskiest team I love that I drafted by following a lot of consensus value.

Love Draft No. 3: Opening Rounds (1-6)

I'm most likely rolling with Gibbs or Robinson with the 1.01, but for the sake of starting with a WR -- or if you're going to consider some of these moves if you have the picks three or four -- Ja'Marr Chase is my top option. 

• Ja'Marr Chase: When Joe Burrow is healthy, Chase has the total package to deliver value as the No.1 overall fantasy option, not just the fantasy WR1. 
• George Pickens: Coming off a career year and with Pickens' maturity being a question mark, I would normally wait to see if he dropped below his consensus value because CeeDee Lamb is still likely the WR1 in Dallas when healthy. Still, Pickens has top-15 potential, so it's easier to consider with Chase as my first pick.
• Cam Skattebo: The Giants want to run and do it with heavy personnel. Skattebo is a plus-version of David Montgomery. The passing game with Jaxson Dart in a new system as a Year Two QB is boom-bust, but look for Skattebo to earn strong value with all-purpose production and red-zone touches. 

What I Love: Getting two backs with high-volume, fantasy RB1 production upside after taking Chase and Pickens and following up with two more receivers in Michael Wilson and Jameson Williams who could be as good at better than Pickens. As long as I can get one RB1 value from my ground game, I should contend with this receiving corps. 

What Concerns Me: I have talented backs, but only David Montgomery's volume is a lock. 

Love Draft No. 3: Middle Rounds (7-12)

• Patrick Mahomes II: I prefer Stafford in this spot, but if he's gone, I'll bank on Mahomes' ceiling. 
• Tyrone Tracy Jr.: Competent redundancy for Skattebo in what should be a run-heavy offense.
• Jayden Higgins/Stefon Diggs:  If Diggs doesn't sign as an instant starter, I'll take my chances with the emerging Higgins, because an improved offensive line should help C.J. Stroud rebound.

Love Draft No. 3: Late Rounds (13-20)

• C.J. Stroud: His pressure stats should improve with a better OL, and we should see greater efficiency and production with an emerging receiving corps.
• Seattle Defense: Strong production facing a strong division makes them a safe pick. 
• Demond Claiborne/James Conner: If Conner is in the mix for the starting role or a pure committee, or he's traded by mid-August, he'll have more immediate appeal. Claiborne is a long shot on talent and ceiling. 
• Keon Coleman: The team has said all the right things about standing by Coleman. If the Bills find the right role for Coleman, he could deliver weekly fantasy value as a WR2-WR3 and have a floor as a bye-week option.

What I Love: Most fantasy GMs miss that OL play is a huge indicator of QB value, so I love that I'm getting Stroud as a QB2. James Conner runs with a style that doesn't make high-end explosion a necessity. He could have nice value here. 

What Concerns Me: Nothing. These are all disposable picks. 

Draft No. 4 I Love

Love Draft No. 4: Opening Rounds (1-6)

• Chris Olave: Pickens has the safer QB, OL, and surrounding talent. Olave is the more versatile talent and feels safer, even if the numbers from 2025 say otherwise. A good consolation if Pickens isn't available as your WR2-WR3.
• D'Andre Swift: Swift had his best year on film and in the box score. The Bears will be one year better, and they already proved they could run the ball. Even if Kyle Monangai forces more of a committee, I'm happy with Swift as my RB2/RB3. 

What I Love: By the sixth round, I've locked up a starting lineup with positions that have the highest points upside and the positions needed are available in the middle rounds. 

Love Draft No. 4: Middle Rounds (7-12)

• Kyle Pitts Sr.: Coming off a career year with a new coach and a new contract, Pitts will remain a large part of the offense. He has a top-three ceiling, and if I'm going to take a chance on 

Love Draft No. 4: Late Rounds (13-20)

• Tre Tucker: Jalen Nailor is getting a lot of buzz around the water cooler, but Tucker is proven, good over the middle, and explosive in his own right.

Hate: Early-Turn Drafts Adhering Close to Consensus