Draft Strategy: Love, Hate, and Risk-Reward at the Middle Spots

Love, Hate, and Risk-Reward from the Middle

Last week, I shared several drafts from the early turn in 12-team PPR formats. The first set of drafts was one where I adhered closely to consensus views, and it led to results I loved. 

The second set of drafts was where I adhered closely to consensus, and it led to results I hated. In the third set of drafts, I strategically veered away from consensus at various points, and it led to results I liked, if not loved. 

I'll be doing this analysis over the next two weeks with drafts from the middle and the late turn. This week, it's the middle spots. 

Strategic Thoughts About Drafting

Here's a basic overview of how I approach drafts. 

• I don't enter drafts with a pre-set position-by-round strategy.
• I'm using my rankings, Average Draft Position (ADP) values, and a historical understanding of positional value to guide my decision-making.
• The range of variation with ADP widens as the draft unfolds; my late-round picks will often veer significantly from consensus, regardless of whether I'm sticking close to it in the early and middle rounds.
• I believe in prioritizing upside in the late rounds.
• I have a clearer vision of what I want to do from Rounds 13-20 -- my endgame -- than in the early rounds, and I use that clarity to guide my early and middle games. 

You'll see as this unfolds.

Love: Drafting from the Middle and Adhering Close to Consensus

Here's Draft No.1. All drafts listed are for 20-player rosters with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2-3 RBs, 3-4 WRs, 1-2 TEs, 1 DEF, and 1 K with PPR scoring.

Love Draft No. 1: Opening Rounds (1-6)

Most of the time, I'm seeking safe picks who are at or below consensus value. There will be occasional outliers who I have valued so far above the consensus that my projections still consider them values at the spots where I "reached" within 20-25 picks to take them. 

• Christian McCaffrey: It's debatable McCaffrey is safe at his age, but I called it right last year that he'd be fantasy RB1 coming off his Achilles injury, and I'm hoping McCaffrey has some immunity from the electrical substation at the 49ers' practice facility. If he does, McCaffrey's production as a runner, receiver, and touchdown scorer will be top-five in each category because of his skills, the offensive scheme, and the offensive line. 
• A.J. Brown: Remember the Saquon Barkley Revenge Tour Bob Harris and I were forecasting 12-14 months before Barkley joined the Eagles? I don't know if Brown really needs one, but you know these receivers invent slights better than sports talkshow hosts invent silly narratives. Expect a rebound bordering on a career-year. 
• Zay Flowers: Last year was a career year for Flowers. Lamar Jackson and his offensive line were struggling with injuries and poor play, and it didn't stop Flowers. I have a good feeling about the new coaching staff, and I have yet to write off Lamar Jackson about anything related to his football career. Flowers is just getting started. It might not be a career year, but I'm optimistic that Flowers earns no worse than fantasy WR2 value in a better offense and a healthy MVP quarterback. 
• David Montgomery: A frequent pick with my early-turn team, I'm sold on the former Lion delivering fantasy RB1 production behind this revamped Texans offensive line. If things are yellow roses in Texas when the season unfolds, I'm still expecting no worse than an RB2 floor from Montgomery. 
• Jameson Williams / DJ Moore: Both receivers offer big-play value after the catch and vertical speed. Both are in good offenses. Moore has the best quarterback on- and off-script. Williams has the best route skills. As my WR3, I'm good with either one, even if I slightly favor Williams. 
• Parker Washington: It's unlikely I've picked four fantasy WR1s to open my draft, but I believe it's likely I picked four top-24 pass-catchers, and I can start all of them. Washington is a little bit of every receiver I selected before him and has great rapport with Trevor Lawrence. He also won over Liam Coen. 

What I Love: Two red-zone beasts at RB and four receivers with strong volume and vertical ability in good offenses with no less than emerging talents at QB. What's not to love? 

What Concerns Me: That my leaguemates will still be delusional enough to believe they won the opening phase of our drafts? Trash-talk aside, Christian McCaffrey's age and David Montgomery's offensive line are potential issues.

While the part of me that's an eternal Nick Chubb will privately rejoice if Montgomery struggles while Chubb fills in for an injured starter and looks like he didn't get hurt, it's likely a perverted football daydream. My fantasy teams hope so.

Love Draft No. 1: Middle Rounds (7-12)

The opening game is usually where I take RBs and WRs because the separation in value among QB1s after the top 2-3 his historically small. I'll take at least one QB in this range unless there are 2-3 tremendous value propositions available in the late rounds. 

This is also the range where I'm targeting starters with higher ceilings than consensus believes, or options with floors and starter ceilings. Often, the positions I select complement my early-game picks.  

Also, an undervalued TE with top-five upside, given his skills and surrounding talent, finds his way into the mix.

• Caleb Williams: Ben Johnson has the most detailed offense in the league. Johnson slowly incorporated three rookie skill talents into the offense as 2025 progressed. Johnson focused on getting Williams to develop his drop-back game and get acclimated to an offense that Rome Odunze said would take everyone two years to learn. Johnson also rebuilt an offensive line. All that, a winning record, a slew of fourth-quarter comebacks, and Williams displaying the wisdom to throw the ball away at a high rate, and the media is obsessed with his completion percentage? Williams is a value here, and this is the earliest I take a QB these days. 
• Jonathon Brooks: I trust the Rookie Scouting Portfolio's analysis of Brooks as one of the best talents at the RB position of the past five years. I'm more concerned about the Panthers' offensive line than Brooks' abilities, but after what Rico Dowdle did, should I? Not enough to avoid him in the eighth round. 
• Rachaad White and/or Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Similar to last week, White's a stable for my teams at this point in drafts. If it's clear Croskey-Merritt will be the top starter by the time I draft, he'll be in this spot. Considering I'm taking them back-to-back with this draft, I'll flip-flop them if the plan is a committee. If it's not the plan, I'll take the top guy and consider a tight end like George Kittle, Travis Kelce, or Dalton Kincaid. More likely, I'll take Wan'Dale Robinson or Jordan Mason. 
• Khalil Shakir: In the mode of cheesy cheerleader poetry: I like starters, yes I do. I like starters, how 'bout you? On a good offense with a top quarterback? A likely team WR2 and fantasy WR3 in the 11th round? Let's roll. 
• Juwan Johnson: I don't love waiting this long for a tight end, but Johnson is undervalued for a player coming off a career year with a young quarterback and a rookie wide receiver teammate with an injury track record that reads like a triage report after a battle.  

What I Love: I'm likely getting at least one fantasy RB2 from this phase of the draft, an emerging fantasy star at QB, and no worse than a fantasy WR4 as my team's WR5.  

What Concerns Me: I could be drafting three RBs to get one starting-caliber option, and two of them might wind up in an unpredictable committee if I take them with consecutive picks like this before there's clarity about Washington's backfield. 

Love Draft No. 1: Late Rounds (13-20)

At this stage, I'm fine with taking players I value far more than consensus. With this team, I only had one, and that was with the last pick in the draft. It means I could look into a top defense and kicker and have the flexibility to take them earlier than the final three rounds. 

• C.J. Stroud: If you read this column last week -- and last month -- it's clear I'm betting on the offensive line in Houston helping C.J. Stroud elevate this game. We saw it with Caleb Williams and Jared Goff. Also, it's not a huge bet as my QB2 in a traditional starting lineup. 
• Brian Robinson Jr: I like having reserve backs with starter experience, size to carry the load, and they're on a team with a strong offensive line and a desire to run it. 
• Greg Dulcich: Terrance Ferguson -- who you'll see later -- might have a higher ceiling if he's the true TE1 in L.A., but the safer bet is Dulcich because he's the clear-cut TE1 in Miami and on an offense that will use the play-action game and moving pockets to create significant opportunities for him. He could wind up the top option for what might be a lackluster offense. 
• Rams Defense: The Texans are the top defense on most boards, but that's before we get the official news Aaron Donald is coming out of retirement to play next to Myles Garrett. Matthew Stafford probably gets anxious (PTSD) and euphoric (realizing he's not facing them ever again) at the same time when seeing them together. 
• Demond Claiborne: You know I like him. If you don't, read this. At this point of a draft, we're rolling with high -ceiling talents and that's Claiborne. 
• Jordan James: The favorite for the RB2 role in San Francisco. I might also consider Jaylin Noel here if the RB2 competition is too close to call. 
• Rashod Bateman: I'm not giving up on a talented wide receiver with the likely WR2 role who is paired with a healthy MVP QB on a team that isn't giving up on him, and he's available in the 19th round. Seriously, if someone jokes with you about taking Bateman here, they're probably that terminally single person who is making fun of other people's relationships. 
• Cameron Dicker: Listen, we know kicker runs start earlier in a lot of leagues, and you will likely end up with a kicker who isn't the fantasy PK2. You're streaming kickers until you find a decent one. 

What I Love: The Rams defensive line, a potential 1,200-yard rusher in the 13th round if Bijan Robinson gets hurt early, an NFL starting WR in the 19th round, and a big-play TE with a starting role available in the 14th round.

What Concerns Me: I may like my chances, but C.J. Stroud is a gamble to back up Caleb Williams. My tight ends are weak on paper. Waiting until the final round for a kicker means I'm likely streaming, and it could impact close contests for me until I land one.

Draft No. 2 I Love

Love Draft No. 2: Opening Rounds (1-6)

Since the spot I'm drafting is the same, I'll only note the differences from previous teams. 

• Amon-Ra St. Brown: I love McCaffrey's game, but if we're seeking a top producer at the height of his career, St. Brown gets the nod. He's safe because of his skills, his QB, a compelling WR and TE complementing him, and his role as a high-volume option. 
• Derrick Henry: Father Time is coming for him at some point, but he's gonna have to tackle or run down Henry just like everyone else. Until then, I'm betting on Henry. Paired with Montgomery? My inner child, raised on Kevin Mack and Earnest Byner, is ready to drop the pads in an Oklahoma Drill, as I did with my childhood pal, Tres, in the basement hallway of my childhood apartment building.   
• Colston Loveland: I hate the idea of taking most tight ends this early, but if I'm going to take a shot at an early-round option, Loveland has the best shot to deliver top-15 fantasy WR value this year in an offense that will run a lot of 12- and 13-personnel sets and motions Loveland from these looks to create mismatches. 

What I Love: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Parker Washington will give me strong target volume. Derrick Henry and David Montgomery will give me strong rushing volume and low red-zone touches. Colston Loveland could be worth a strong fantasy WR2. 

What Concerns Me: Grabbing the Lions' WR1 and WR2 this early will backfire with an injury to Jared Goff. If Loveland doesn't deliver top-three fantasy production that's commensurate with a top-24 fantasy WR, I overpaid. It means I'm dangerously close to taking Loveland at his highest price. 

Father Time might finally take down Derrick...Nah, I think I just heard Pops take a Henry stiff arm.

Love Draft No. 2: Middle Rounds (7-12)

• Chris Godwin Jr.: I'm a longtime fan of his game and believe he can still deliver at the highest level from the slot. With Mike Evans out of the picture and Emeka Egbuka still learning, Godwin could have a 1-B role to Egbuka's 1-A that narrows the margin between them as producers. I expect Baker Mayfield to rebound, and that bodes well for Godwin as a fantasy starter. 
• Stefon Diggs: I made this bet before the Commanders signed Diggs to a contract.  Whether it's the slot or as a flanker, look for Diggs to deliver at least a baseline level of fantasy contributor value to a lineup. 
• Tyler Allgeier: If he starts in Arizona, he'll be part of a committee that limits his ceiling and has a good chance of Jeremiyah Love overtaking him in this role by midseason. Still, it's nice to have a part-time starter capable of strong volume as your team's RB5. 

What I Love: Between Godwin and Diggs, I'm confident I will have a strong WR4 in my lineup. I'm likely locking up a Washington backfield with promise due to the scheme change on the offensive line.

What Concerns Me: Godwin and Diggs are older, and I might catch them a year too late, making me a three-receiver team counting on that third running back -- and my "third RB" could be an unpredictable Commanders' tandem. 

Love Draft No. 2: Late Rounds (13-20)

• Terrance Ferguson: I wasn't a big fan of this clap-attacking, linear athlete the Rams took last year. That said, if he cuts down on the drops and earns a lead role, he has straight-line speed and the maneuverability to adjust to targets. With Colston Loveland as my TE1, I'll take the shot on Ferguson's ceiling. 
• Texans Defense: Regarded as the top unit before we consider Aaron Donald's return. Even with Donald, the Texans have an easier division to face, on paper. 

What I Love: I picked backup RBs with either the potential to deliver strong volume and/or they are working with good offensive lines. None of my receivers have backup roles for their teams.

What Concerns Me: Age. Derrick Henry's, Chris Godwin Jr.'s, and Stefon Diggs'. 

Draft No. 3 I Love

Love Draft No. 3: Opening Rounds (1-6)

• Jonathan Taylor: I'll likely take Christian McCaffrey ahead of Taylor 6-7 times out of 10, but Taylor is in his prime, has a good offensive line, and the Colts need to run the ball. Pairing either back with Derrick Henry is fun. 
• Emeka Egbuka: Baker Mayfield will rebound, and Egbuka should deliver no worse than top-20 value at his position. Considering the other receivers in my room, I'm sure I'll have multiple options with top 15-24 value at the position. 

What I Love: Three high-volume RBs with green-zone touches and three high-volume WRs with big-play potential.

What Concerns Me: I fear the Colts' scheme is a bubble that opposing defenses will burst after seeing how the Steelers stifled them last year, and that Daniel Jones' Achilles could limit his velocity. 

Love Draft No. 3: Middle Rounds (7-12)

• Courtland Sutton: Likely a fantasy WR2 with Jaylen Waddle in the fold, but that's still good value for your team's WR4 spot. 
• Matthew Stafford: He got advice from Tom Brady when it came to training, and Stafford is four years younger than Aaron Rodgers. Brady retired at 46 and was never the athlete Stafford was, and never had Stafford's arm talent. Stafford has two of the best receivers in the league, a strong ground game, and a skilled offensive mind for a head coach. I'd take him where I took Caleb Williams in other drafts if I had to.
• Jake Ferguson:  The forgotten TE4 from last year, the most likely refrain about Ferguson is that he'll be a regression candidate because his eight touchdowns drove his 2025 production and TDs are a volatile stat. Perhaps, but I'm drafting Ferguson because he's a do-it-all option with a good quarterback targeting him, and he has been a starting fantasy TE for two of the past three years where he started every game. 
• Jayden Higgins: Long, tall, strong, quick, and fast enough to stretch the field, Higgins and Jaylin Noel are the future of the Texans' passing game, and Higgins is the more immediate option if Tank Dell defies the odds and/or Nico Collins has another season where he misses time.

What I Love: Four starters with strong ceilings in the middle rounds is a nice haul, and the only true backup is Tyler Allgeier, and even Allgeier might earn a committee role this year. 

Love Draft No. 3: Late Rounds (13-20)

• De'Zhaun Stribling: The injuries to the receiving corps don't change Stribling's value at this point. Demarcus Robinson would likely replace Mike Evans this year. Deebo Samuel Sr. is replacing Ricky Pearsall. Christian Kirk was already considered the underdog to Stribling in the battle for the WR3 role. George Kittle may be ready to begin the year, and Jake Tonges is an able replacement if not. We're looking at Stribling strictly in the Jauan Jennings role. That big-slot role could make Stribling an instant fantasy starter, but Jennings needed a few years to fully acclimate to the 49ers' offense, and I'm not expecting Stribling to buck the trend we saw with past early-round receivers in San Francisco who needed more than a year to thrive. 
• Ray Davis: One of the better backup runners in the league behind a good OL with a strong offensive scheme and surrounding skill talent. Brian Robinson Jr, Tank Bigsby, Ray Davis, and Isiah Pacheco are a proven shortlist. 
• Broncos Defense: A strong unit that proved its worth in a strong division last year.

What I Love: While I didn't get backup RBs working behind my starters, I got good runners with good offenses if they are forced into action. 

Hate: Early-Turn Drafts Adhering Close to Consensus

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A lot of the players I love, but their value or how the selections impact the overall build are factors I hate about these drafts. 

Hate Draft No. 1: Opening Rounds (1-6)

I would not make most of these picks, but it's a good example of what adhering to the consensus can do if you're not careful. 

• Brock Bowers: You can get Colston Loveland two rounds later, and in most PPR formats, Bowers isn't likely to deliver top-15 WR value, despite drafting him at his maximum possible value in the second round. 
• Malik Nabers: Stefon Diggs, Jordy Nelson, Keenan Allen, and Chris Godwin Jr. are the only four receivers I can think of in recent years who delivered 1,000 yards receiving within a year of tearing an ACL. Three of those four options did most of their work in the slot that year, and they had the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, and Josh McDaniels-boosted Drake Maye throwing them the ball. Jaxson Dart doesn't inspire me by comparison. The scheme is new, and I don't think Nabers is playing in the slot full-time. We want the magic for Nabers, but his value is likely delusional -- even if we're all rooting for Nabers. 
• Travis Etienne Jr.: It took years for Etienne to figure out how to be a strong decision-maker between the tackles in the NFL, and now he's moving to a new system, splitting time with Alvin Kamara, and working with an offensive line that needs improvement. There's also the matter of a second-year quarterback that opposing coordinators have been studying during the offseason. 
• Jaylen Warren: We have three RB picks in the first six rounds for this team, and only one is a full-time starter without a committee. If this team took David Montgomery, it would have been two. Warren is a nice player, but he's in an even timeshare with Rico Dowdle.

What I Love: I love the talent of most of these players. If they perform to their ability, this will likely be a good fantasy team.

What Concerns Me: McCaffrey is old, Bowers is overvalued here, Nabers may not return to form this year, Etienne had his conceptual struggles and is starting from scratch in New Orleans behind a bad OL,  DJ Moore has route adjustment lapses when his QB is off-script, and Jaylen Warren remains in a timeshare.

I want high-floor/high-ceiling players in the opening rounds, but I'm getting lower floors with each of these options than I'd like. Taking a chance on one player in the opening rounds with a low floor is acceptable to me, but filling your opening rounds with boom-bust values is a concern. 

Hate Draft No. 1: Middle Rounds (7-12)

• Makai Lemon: This team already took a big swing at a rehabbing Malik Nabers. Adding Courtland Sutton is a safe prospect, but could have doubled up with Chris Godwin Jr. I'm a Lemon fan long-term, but not for a team with this makeup. Lemon might be the WR2 in this Eagles' offense -- might -- and it's possible Philadelphia leans hard on Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, while the rest of the passing game is a committee. 
• Jordan Addison: I've been telling you for years that Kyler Murray hasn't supported more than one fantasy starter in the passing game but once in his career. Addison and T.J. Hockenson are likely fighting for crumbs behind Justin Jefferson. I like Addison's talent, but he's an NFL WR2 on an offense that will yield fantasy WR4 value, at best. 
• Jared Goff: I have no problem with Jared Goff as my QB1, but I could have had him as my QB2 if I had skipped Addison and taken Matthew Stafford as my QB1. I'd feel much more confident about my quarterbacks, and still gotten Khalil Shakir where I took my QB2.
• Tyler Shough: We saw Shough perform well as a rookie, but opposing defenses will be prepared, and the Saints' offensive line is a question mark. A Stafford-Goff-Shakir trio is better than an Addison-Goff-Shough combo. 
• Keaton Mitchell: This team has three other backs, and only one is a full-time starter. Even if you rolled with Goff and Shough, you could have swapped out Addison for one of the Washington Commanders RBs where the volume is likely better than what we may see with Mitchell. This is another boom-bust pick with high upside because Mitchell is a big-play speedster with receiving chops, but his role may remain small, and Mitchell has an injury history. 
• Kenyon Sadiq: The projection heading into this week is that Sadiq and Taylor are the co-starters, but Taylor is a notch or two better as a blocker and route runner vs zone. Ruckert is the best blocker overall. Will Sadiq be good enough to be a FT WR2/WR3 vs Cooper/Mitchell? Will he be good enough to overtake Taylor as part of a 2 TE set in the run game? Based on what I’ve seen, the answer is that he’ll be a heavily involved situational option as TE/WR hybrid. There will be big plays as the conceptual mismatch vs the right coverage. I’m skeptical of sustainability this year. There’s a risk he’s found out after 4-6 weeks like Gadsden last year. If he can’t really block and he has difficulty with advanced TE/WR route concept, there’s a risk it will make his usage too predictable. This is another boom-bust pick.

What I Love: The go-big-or-go-home attitude. Sadiq and Mitchell could be game changers. 

What Concerns Me: Too many boom-bust options or players who are the second option in game, but won't be with their fantasy games. 

Hate Draft No. 1: Late Rounds (13-20)

• Jauan Jennings: Nothing like doubling down on the Vikings' passing game that is likely rolling with Kyler Murray as the headliner, and Jennings is the third option, at best, for a QB who only sustains one fantasy receiver. This is another mistake of selecting talent without regard to fit.
• Adonai Mitchell: If Geno Smith plays as he did in Seattle, there's room for Mitchell to deliver a fantasy impact if he refines his hands. The early returns are promising in camp. The only gripe is that he's another boom-bust option who might only amount to WR3 value in the Jets' passing game and little fantasy value overall. If Omar Cooper Jr. becomes option No. 2 in the passing game, Mitchell and Sadiq are battling for the third and fourth roles, at best.
• Kaytron Allen: There are team RB2s available, and this team is selecting the hopeful RB3 on the squad. 
• Tank Dell: Yet another boom-bust pick. 

What I Love: None of these picks are reaches, and there's a lot of big-play firepower.

What Concerns Me: This is the perfect example that picking to ADP doesn't equate to playing it safe. Just about every pick has a legitimate risk relative to other players available at the same spot. This team lacks a lot of forethought. If enough players reach their ceilings, it could be a big-ceiling team that thrives. I'm not counting on it. 

Draft I Hate No. 2