The average career of an NFL Running Back is currently 2.57 years. That number is growing to be slightly longer due to workload management and the evolution of third-down pass-catching backs. But it is still by far the least durable position in the NFL. The main contributor to running back regression is their age. The production usually starts to trend down when we see players hit the age of 28. Sometimes workload and amount of carries can play a factor, but that number can be skewed by running backs who have missed a lot of time with injuries. Most players are coming into the league at 22, and unless it’s a rare case, they are usually not producing great seasons past the age of 28. There are rare occurrences over the years like Priest Holmes and Adrian Peterson, who have had top-five years despite being older. But for the most part, we are wanting to target those under the age of 28 if we are looking for a top-12 finish. I went to Pro Football Reference to compile some data to see what fantasy scoring has looked like for running backs based on their age over the last 22 years.
Running Back PPR Finishes from 2000-2021
| Age | Total RB 1st-12th Finish | % of RB 1st-12th Finishes | Total RB 13th-24th Finish | % of RB 13th-24th Finishes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 8 | 1.5% | 10 | 1.9% |
| 22 | 21 | 4% | 18 | 3.4% |
| 23 | 33 | 6.3% | 34 | 6.4% |
| 24 | 40 | 7.6% | 30 | 5.7% |
| 25 | 41 | 7.8% | 31 | 5.9% |
| 26 | 40 | 7.6% | 24 | 4.5% |
| 27 | 26 | 4.9% | 38 | 7.2% |
| 28 | 23 | 4.4% | 27 | 5.5% |
| 29 | 12 | 2.3% | 22 | 4.2% |
| 30 | 12 | 2.3% | 11 | 2.1% |
| 31 | 6 | 1.1% | 7 | 1.3% |
| 32 | 2 | 0.2% | 10 | 1.9% |
| 33 | 0 | 0% | 2 | 0.4% |
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