Fantasy football is a numbers game, but bias can cloud our judgment.
What if we scaled back and simply dug into the numbers? Would we come up with shifting rankings?
Let's look at blind resumes of running backs who share a common element.
| Player | Team PPG | Player Per-Game Averages | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushes | RuYards | Avg | RuTDs | Recs | ReYards | ReTDs | ||
| A | 29.9 | 12.9 | 58.0 | 4.50 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 32.4 | 0.1 |
| B | 19.7 | 16.1 | 64.8 | 4.02 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 18.4 | 0.2 |
| C | 24 | 18.8 | 87.5 | 4.65 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 12.5 | 0.1 |
| D | 29.8 | 11.1 | 51.2 | 4.61 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 13.4 | 0.1 |
Review the above data set and pick a champion. The choice may be evident in points per reception formats as Player A gives you passing game work. Perhaps the pure volume and production of Player D would push that direction. Sample sizes in football are always questionable, but what if someone told you Player C's team realized his efficiency and altered his usage over the back half of the season?
| Player | Team PPG | Player Per-Game Averages | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushes | RuYards | Avg | RuTDs | Recs | ReYards | ReTDs | ||
| A | 29.9 | 12.9 | 58.0 | 4.50 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 32.4 | 0.1 |
| B | 19.7 | 16.1 | 64.8 | 4.02 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 18.4 | 0.2 |
| C | 24.0 | 18.8 | 87.5 | 4.65 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 12.5 | 0.1 |
| D | 29.8 | 17.0 | 71.7 | 4.22 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 18.5 | 0.2 |
Did you change your answer? Know who we are talking about yet? A dramatic increase in attempts and an increase in touchdown production made Player C the RB3 on points per game basis through the fantasy playoffs. Perhaps more context clues.
All four running backs saw additions to their backfields on day two of the 2022 NFL draft. Now, the most important clue of all and the determining factor of fantasy value: ADP.
| Player | RB ADP | Overall ADP |
|---|---|---|
| A | RB10 | 19 |
| B | RB23 | 50 |
| C | RB24 | 55 |
| D | RB31 | 83 |
Who do you want to invest in at cost? Perhaps more importantly, who do you want to avoid?
The Reveal
Player A: Leonard Fournette
Fournette saw one of the best seasons of his career, his 4.5 yards per attempt were a career-high, and his eight rushing touchdowns and 69 receptions with 454 yards were all the second-best numbers of his career. There is reason to be excited about Fournette's 2022 outlook; the departure of Ronald Jones II potentially clears the backfield, but the addition of Rachaad White bears mention. White totaled 1,456 yards and 43 receptions, showing as a natural receiver.
In reality, Fournette represents an excellent value. He finished RB6 overall and RB4 on a per-game basis. Landing as a fringe RB1 in ADP gives every reason to target Fournette much higher than he has typically landed within drafts.
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