Thursday Showdown Week 10

Photo: Eric Canha, USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Atlanta Falcons are heading to Carolina to take on the Panthers as 3-point favorites. The game total is set at 44. The Falcons enter this divisional matchup shockingly tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Perhaps equally as shocking is the fact that the Carolina Panthers blew out the Buccaneers in P.J. Walker’s first start. While this game may have the look of yet another prime-time snoozer, we have the making for a competitive shootout. Both teams are in the bottom half in pass rate, with the Falcons coming in at 29^th. We have multiple viable backs in each backfield that we will need to sort through. With the Falcons coming in as three-point favorites on the road, I will be leaning into Atlanta-heavy builds, while being slightly more willing to run 3-3 lineups this week. We will need to find ways to get exposure to each run game, while still managing to incorporate some unexpected passing success.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Chuba Hubbard – Ankle – Full Participant
• Laviska Shenault – Illness – Full Participant
• Rashard Higgins – Illness – Did Not Participate

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Cordarrelle Patterson
2. Marcus Mariota
3. D.J. Moore
4. Drake London
5. Kyle Pitts
6. P.J. Walker

ATLANTA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Marcus Mariota $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Marcus Mariota has completed less than 15 passes in six of nine games thus far. He’s not had a single game over 20 completions. While the passing volume is concerning, we’ve got two factors to set our minds at ease. First, the Falcon's target tree is condensed, so we have a good idea of where the volume is going. Secondly, Mariota has a fantastic rushing floor that should add anywhere from three to six points to his fantasy output. Ultimately, we’re going to have to treat Falcons double-stacks as a same-game touchdown parlay. In Atlanta builds we’ll plan on Mariota throwing multiple touchdowns on low volume and trying to get his receivers right.