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NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Buffalo Bills are heading to New England to take on the Patriots as 4-point favorites. The game total is set at 43.5. Josh Allen and the Bills enter this week passing at the league’s second-highest rate, just behind the Chiefs. Mac Jones and the Patriots are fresh off a nearly 400-yard passing performance. If trends continue, this game will soar past the over. Unfortunately, no one predicted that sort of performance from New England and no one is predicting it this week. Damien Harris is likely going to miss this game, but the Patriots are still going to rush at a rate just over the league average. Even though the salaries are much higher, we’ll be looking for unique ways to fit four Bills into our lineups.
INJURY ROUND-UP
- Damien Harris – Thigh – Did not participate
- Jakobi Meyers – Shoulder – Limited
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen $12,200 – Captain or Flex
Josh Allen has had a couple of down games in recent weeks that paired with his salary could affect this roster percentage. Last week he only completed 57% of his passes and he still managed 253 yards and two touchdowns. Even when it looked like he’d be having a floor game, he came in clutch with 78 yards rushing. Typically, we’re used to seeing him at a roster percentage close to 90%. I’m expecting this week to be slightly lower. Regardless of roster percentage, I’m going to be building most of my lineups around Allen, knowing much of the field will be gravitating toward Rhamondre Stevenson for much cheaper.
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