Thursday Showdown Week 16

Photo: Bob Self, USA Today Sports

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NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Jacksonville Jaguars are heading to New York to take on the Jets as a pick 'em. The game total is set at a lowly 38. Early reports indicate that Zach Wilson will be receiving the starting nod once again with Mike White sidelined due to multiple rib injuries. Since we’ve got an even spread, this is a great week to take a firm stance on a team. With Wilson drawing the start for the Jets, I’ll be heavily stacking the Jaguars. Their premier positions are more expensive, which will lead optimizers to take the value New York provides. We get an offense that has put up 27 or more points in 4 of their last six games at a discounted roster percentage.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Mike White – Ribs – Out
• Denzel Mims – Head – Did Not Participate
• Jeff Smith – Knee – Did Not Participate
• Corey Davis – Head – Full Participant

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Travis Etienne
2. Trevor Lawrence
3. Zay Jones
4. Christian Kirk
5. Garrett Wilson

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Trevor Lawrence $11,400 – Captain or Flex

Lawrence is questionable with a toe injury. But he’s been documented as a full practice participant, and there have been no indications that he may miss this game. He’s hit the 300-yard-bonus in three of his last four games. He threw at least three touchdown passes in each week that he hit the bonus. We’re not expecting a ceiling performance from Lawrence this week, but if he remains efficient, he’s got a great chance at finishing as the optimal Captain.