6 High-Efficiency WRs: Does It Signal Regression?

Go here to see 2021's low-efficiency wide receivers who could positively progress this season.

Wide receiver points per target is a highly volatile stat from year to year. For example, a strong performance in one year does not predict a strong performance in the next season. Likewise, poor performance in one year does not predict poor performance in the next season. In 2020, wide receivers with 50 or more targets averaged 1.87 PPR points per target. In 2021, wide receivers with 50 or more targeted averaged 1.85 PPR points per target.

Players who significantly overperformed this number are candidates for regression the following year, largely because of touchdown rate. Below is a group of six wide receivers who significantly overperformed the average points per target in 2021 and whether they are regression candidates in 2022.

Deebo Samuel (2.96 points per target)

Deebo Samuel is an easy qualifier for this list. Yet, that does not mean he is a regression candidate. Samuel finished as WR3 in points per game on only 114 targets in 2021. Of course, Samuel’s production on the ground was enormous, including eight touchdowns, on 59 rushing attempts. Samuel had 2.22 points per target on a receiving-only basis, still above the league average but more reflective of his receiving production.

Much of Samuel’s 2021 production is misunderstood because of how his season ended. Samuel led the league in yards per reception in 2021 (18.2). Samuel was WR2 in points per game in his first 8 weeks of the season, when he only had 6 carries (22.6 points per game).

Samuel’s scoring actually WENT DOWN when he was used as a rusher. In the final nine weeks of the season, Samuel had 53 carries and finished as WR4 in points per game (20.6 points per game). While many think Samuel’s production was based on rushing attempts, his production was better in the first half of the season before he took on a rushing role.

If Samuel transitions back to his full-time receiving role, he is a candidate for an elite finish at the wide receiver position.

DeAndre Hopkins (2.49 points per target)

DeAndre Hopkins saw a drop in perception after his 2021 season, but that was not really the result of a drop in efficiency. Hopkins produced 2.49 points per target in 2021, the result of scoring eight touchdowns on only 42 receptions. His efficiency was largely based on his red zone usage, with 33.9% of his targets in the red zone, the third highest percentage of any wide receiver with 50 targets in 2021. Hopkins is suspended for 6 games to start the season and saw his value plummet as a result.

While his efficiency was good on a per-target basis, Hopkins’s efficiency was based on where he was used, which shows a level of comfort with Kyler Murray in the red zone. Hopkins should regress some in 2022, but assuming he returns from suspension in the same role, he can be a difference-making player for playoff teams.

JaMarr Chase (2.40 points per target)

JaMarr Chase’s inclusion on the list is markedly different than the others. Chase had 2.40 points per target and finished as WR5 in point per game, on only 128 targets. Chase’s production was the type of high-variance production that tends to regress to its mean. Chase led the league in receiving touchdowns of more than 40 yards, with six. Chase is a top-two cost in dynasty and top-five in redraft. Chase will need to take a big step forward in volume to fight off the touchdown regression.