New Coach Effects: Carolina Panthers

Photo: Jeremy Brevard, USA Today Sports

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The Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule during the 2022 season and hired Frank Reich as their new head coach. Here are some of the changes you can expect in 2023.

2022 Season Review

The Carolina offense was a difficult place for fantasy production in 2022. They ran 976 plays, the fewest in the league, 90.8 below the league average in offensive plays. Overall, the average was 63 per game, and Carolina averaged 57.4 per game.

Overall, the team produced 5.3 yards per play, just below the league average of 5.4 yards per play.

The overall number hides some critical efficiencies. The team ranked above average in yards per attempt (7.1) and yards per carry (4.6), a rare Simpson’s paradox because of the team’s run-heavy offense. The team ranked 29th in passing attempts (26.8) ahead of only Tennessee, Atlanta, and Chicago, and the team ranked 30th in designed passing rate (54.1%).

Overall, the team was extremely run-heavy. On early downs in neutral game scripts, Carolina threw on 51.5% of plays, which ranked 20th.

When adjusted for the game situation, Carolina’s play-calling decisions stick out. Overall, the team was 8% under passing rate expectations and only threw more after they rushed for a first down.

The team saw major changes during the season that changed the team’s decision-making. Head coach Matt Rhule was fired after Week 5, and McCaffrey was traded after Week 6.

In weeks 1 through 6, the team was game script neutral, throwing the percentage of the time the team was expected based on the game situation.

However, after Week 6, under interim head coach Steve Wilks, the offense was significantly more rush-centric. From Week 7 through Week 18, the team ran 12% more than expected based on the game script and did so in every possible game situation.