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The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through IDP ADP from TheIDPShow.com https://www.theidpshow.com/ and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Here are the defensive linemen who received multiple overvalued votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans
Tripp Brebner: Despite joining one of the league's weakest defenses, the third pick of the 2023 NFL draft is coming off the board in ahead of veterans who finished 2022 as DL1s. Anderson's average draft position as the 17th defensive lineman off the board stands in stark contrast to Tyree Wilson's ADP. The seventh overall pick by the Raiders is going 53rd among linemen, 36 slots behind Anderson.
Matt Montgomery: We all love when a big-name guy gets taken high in the NFL Draft, but having him ranked over the likes of Chase Young, Josh Allen, and Jeffery Simmons just makes me feel dirty all over. Let’s wait a little bit before we crown him the next big thing and try to appreciate the great defensive linemen currently in the league by drafting or acquiring them ahead of him.
Kyle Bellefeuil: Will Anderson is an exciting IDP dynasty asset and projects as a future cornerstone of the Houston defense. However, with an ADP of DL17, the expectations might be a little too high for Anderson right away in his first NFL season. While Anderson should see plenty of opportunity as a rookie, it can take a little time for edge rushers to hit their stride in the big show fully. Anderson is full of potential, but drafting him ahead of productive, proven veterans as your weekly DL2 in redraft is a little risky.
Gary Davenport: To be clear, Anderson is an immensely talented young edge-rusher with a bright future. But drafting a rookie EDGE in the top 20 in redraft formats is just about always a bad idea. The fact is that even superstar edge-rushers like Myles Garrett of the Browns and Nick Bosa of the 49ers experienced an adjustment period and had relatively modest first seasons. Aidan Hutchinson’s DL21 finish last year was more an exception than a rule, and even if Anderson matches that, it still means he’s being drafted at his ceiling.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Chase Young, Washington Commanders
Joseph Haggan: This is a sad one to say, but Young at DL20 is overvalued. He had 7.5 sacks in 15 games as a rookie, though, since he has dealt with a lingering ACL injury and inefficiency. In his 12 games since his rookie season, he has a total of just one and a half sacks and just 31 tackles. Across 591 snaps between 2021 and 2022, Young had just 31 total pressures, according to PFF. He seems a shell of himself, whether it be a lack of confidence in himself or in his body... He just doesn't look right. The Commanders are open to moving him, and maybe a change of scenery would benefit him. I'm firmly staying away from Young.
Kyle Bellefeuil: Expectations were high for Chase Young after his strong rookie campaign in 2020. However, with only one and a half sacks over his last 12 games, Young has struggled to get back to form after his unfortunate ACL injury in his second season. All of us IDP gamers are hoping Young gets healthy and back on track in this upcoming pivotal year. However, expecting Young to return on his current DL20 price tag might be a little ambitious.
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