Now that all 32 NFL teams have hit the field for training camp, we'll soon have new developments to assess and add to our current intel on the players we're targeting. But, as those who have been following along all offseason know, we've spent the three months since April's NFL Draft sorting through all the intel we've received.
And we've drawn some conclusions.
We know the biggest draft advantages come from identifying players whose role or general circumstances have already improved but whose Average Draft Position (ADP) still reflects last year's perception rather than this year's reality.
We're Making Lists
That's why many of us go into drafts with players we consider "our guys," those with appealing blends of talent, opportunity, upside, and price.
This week, we're looking at "my guys."
"My guys" won't necessarily be "your guys."
Yes, there will be developments in August that could change our points of view. But I'm confident enough in my list to throw them out there -- along with the information, circumstances, and history that caught my attention.
I encourage you to use the same processes I do to create your own list of "my guys."
You'll find it's a worthwhile endeavor. Having a list of players you know appeal to you can create breathing room in tough drafts.
We got the ball rolling Monday with Running Backs Who Have My Attention. Today, we turn to wide receivers.
Career Year Incoming?
A.J. Brown didn't join the Patriots until June, but he made an immediate impression on Drake Maye: "A.J.'s been awesome . . . You just gotta throw it near him, and he'll make a play."
No doubt.
Brown finished as a top-20 receiver all four seasons in Philadelphia, with top-5 PPR finishes in 2022 and 2023, and posted 78 catches, 1,003 yards, and seven touchdowns last year in just 15 games.
He should easily lead New England in targets on a team coming off a 14-3 season and a Super Bowl trip.
Maye already trusting Brown is the best part of this.
Brown combines big-time speed, size, and strength with contested-catch ability. He's also been among the NFL's premier deep threats over the past four years. According to CBSSports.com's Zachary Pereles, Brown's 33 receptions on throws 25-plus yards downfield are tied with George Pickens for the most in the NFL over that span.
Maye had the NFL's fifth-highest deep-throw rate and the league's second-highest explosive-play rate and air-yards-per-attempt rate last year. His massive leap as a downfield passer fueled his overall improvement.
Better still, when Maye trusts his receivers, he's more than willing to throw into high-leverage areas, which aligns with Brown's elite strength and ability to win contested balls.
As Pereles summed up, "It's not hard to envision Maye-to-Brown being one of the top big-play-producing combinations in the NFL if things go to plan."
Are we getting a great deal on Brown, who is being drafted as WR8 with the 20th pick overall?
Nope.
But the combination of skill sets, scheme, the Patriots' determination to land Brown, and the wideout's connection to head coach Mike Vrabel has me as excited as Maye.
I haven't gone so far as to draft Brown in the first round, but he's irresistible to me in Round 2 -- and as early as the 2.01.
Building on a Breakout
In New Orleans, Chris Olave broke out as WR6 last season. He finished the year even stronger, delivering three straight 20-plus-point games in Weeks 15, 16, and 17.
He was WR2 over that span -- when it mattered most for fantasy investors.
Along the way, he set career highs across the board: 156 targets, 100 catches, 1,163 yards, and nine touchdowns. He ranked no lower than seventh at the position in nearly every counting stat, including end-zone targets and air yards.
The Saints were impressed. The two sides agreed to terms on a four-year contract extension Thursday worth as much as $132 million.
So why is Olave still being drafted at the back of the WR1 tier with a Round 3 price?
New Orleans added Travis Etienne Jr. and first-round pick Jordyn Tyson this offseason, but Tyson is more likely to open up the offense for Olave than steal his targets. Footballguys Jason Wood agrees; Olave is a legit top-12 receiver at a fair price.
At his current ADP, landing Olave as your second receiver could be a league-winning move.
Unquestioned Role with Legitimate Concerns
Mike Evans missed nine games last year and saw his streak of 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons end. But the skill didn't go anywhere: 108 career touchdowns (10th all-time), most receiving yards of any active player with one team, and 2.3 yards per route run over the past two seasons, 14th among all wideouts.
San Francisco needs him more than ever.
Brandon Aiyuk is gone, and so are Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, and Skyy Moore.
Making matters worse, Ricky Pearsall is set to have season-ending knee surgery, and the receiving room is otherwise green.
Offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak already called Evans a Hall of Fame talent and the matchup they want to feed in single coverage -- that's WR1 language.
The scheme fit isn't perfect; Kyle Shanahan leans on yards after catch, and Evans logged just 46 last year in eight games. But Brock Purdy thrives throwing to big bodies over the middle, and that should bridge the gap.
On Monday night, I spoke with Vic Tafur, who covers the Niners for The Athletic. Tafur told me there's no doubt the team expects Evans to handle a true alpha role.
What about his age and recent injury history?
For me, Evans' WR27 ADP and fifth-round price are worth the gamble.
If Evans is on the field all 17 games, we're paying for the floor and totally ignoring the historically high ceiling.
