Week 3 First Look

Photo: Noah K. Murray, USA Today Sports

In our Wednesday morning first look at the Week 3 Main Slate, we want to take a big-picture view as a first step in our preparation process. The goal here is to give you some information-packed visualizations to quickly set the table for the much more in-depth breakdowns and player recommendations that will come later in the week. In addition, we want to start to identify the players who are most likely to be popular so we can narrow our focus and start digging deeper into some of the players who stand out as potential top options.

Our Week 3 First Look will start out with a look at what the lines and totals tell us about teams to target. We are also going to identify the players that are popping out as top values in early-week projections and make note of the news items we will be tracking throughout the week that will have the biggest impact on the slate. Lastly, we will dig into some Week 2 usage stats.

Implied Team Totals and Spreads

The above visualization shows each team’s implied team total and how much they are favored by (negative numbers for underdogs).

• The upper right-hand quadrant shows teams that are favorites and expected to score an above-average amount of points. Players from these teams are prime targets for our DFS lineups this week. It looks like a great spot for Tony Pollard and Travis Etienne.
• The bottom right-hand quadrant contains teams that are favored but in what are expected to be low-scoring games. At first glance, it looks like a good spot for Jerome Ford and Rhamondre Stevenson.
• The upper left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs but still expected to score an above-average number of points in games with shootout potential. The game script should set up well for the passing games of these offenses. Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams are in a great spot again after strong Week 2 performances.
• The bottom left-hand quadrant is teams that are underdogs and not expected to score much. We want to approach rostering players from these teams with caution. If the Texans keep finding themselves deep in the bottom left quadrant, it is going to be hard to get excited about Dameon Pierce this season.