High-Leverage Opportunities: Running Backs, Week 13

Photo: Noah K. Murray, USA Today Sports

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Targets and goal line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries is nice, but not near the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and high-volume back generally points to receiving more targets and goal-line chances for high fantasy-scoring plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.

• Current RK: Team Ranking in Expected High-Leverage Opportunity PPR Points
• HLO: High-Leverage Opportunity Score Average Per Week
• GL: Rank in Goal-Line Carries (Inside the Five-Yard-Line)
• TGT: Rank in Team Running Back Targets

THE GOOD

Cardinals

Arizona had one of the biggest outlier weeks of the entire NFL season in their blowout loss to the Rams. They more than doubled their weekly average in Week 12 and had the fifth-best HLO score of the week. Their previous high was 17th and they have the most dead-last weekly finishes in the NFL. Michael Carter is the sneaky player to monitor here down the stretch for a team struggling and likely negative game scripts where Carter saw 40% of team routes, and if James Conner misses time, Carter is the best option compared to the non-descript others.

Commanders

Washington is one of the notable teams that has been far better in the most recent month compared to the first two months of the season. In the first month, they were 26th, and in the second month, they logged a 22nd overall finish. They have been 16th or better in each of the past four games. The most notable aspect is Brian Robinson's rise in routes and passing game involvement in games Antonio Gibson misses versus games Gibson plays. Robinson has an elite upside in non-Gibson games but typically sees 20-30% of routes in Gibson's active games.

Broncos

Denver continued their strong HLO season-long trend in Week 12 with the No.6 finish, and they logged a third straight month as a top 10 HLO backfield. The other key takeaway is Samaje Perine's rise to the clarified RB2 role after previously being in a murky committee with Jaleel McLaughlin. Perine has strong upside down the stretch if Javonte Williams misses time and McLaughlin is a potential cut player in shallow formats.

Jets

The Jets are an impressive No.7 in overall HLO despite being dead last in goal-line carries for running backs. Dalvin Cook is the de facto RB2, but keep Israel Abanikanda on a darkhorse radar down the stretch. The Jets are going nowhere, and Abanikanda is the type of young athletic player who can get a start or two if Breece Hall is out late in the season for a non-playoff team.