IDP Rookie Roundtable: Defensive Backs

Photo: Andrew Dieb, USA Today Sports

The 2023 NFL Draft is still about a month away, but with this year’s NFL Scouting Combine and most of the individual Pro Days now in the rearview mirror, we have a pretty good idea how this year’s rookie class stacks up at each position.

There’s no question that landing spot matters greatly when determining the IDP value of rookie defenders—especially in the short term. But it’s time for dynasty managers to start assembling their cheatsheets for the rookie drafts that will be upon us soon enough. To identify values to target, busts to avoid, and sleepers who could blast past their draft slot.

The IDP staff here at Footballguys has been doing that over the past few weeks, with a series of three IDP Rookie Roundtables.

This edition closes out the series with a look at Brian Branch, Christian Gonzalez, and the defensive backs.

Much like their counterparts at linebacker, the 2023 class at safety isn’t especially top-heavy—Alabama’s Brian Branch is the only safety widely expected to be selected in Round 1. Branch is the consensus No. 1 safety this year, but outside him, who of this year’s high-end safety prospects stands out as someone who will go on to have IDP success?

Kyle Bellefeuil: Antonio Johnson out of Texas A&M is someone who I'm excited about and profiles well as a potential IDP contributor from this safety class. At 6-foot-2 and 198 pounds, Johnson is a bigger framed safety who plays with a physical edge as a run defender. Over his last two seasons, Johnson has played a whopping 82.6% of his defensive snaps up in the box and slot area for the Aggies, certainly ideal for IDP. With his pairing of size and speed (4.52-second 40), Johnson can also match up with opposing pass-catching tight ends if called upon. For IDP purposes, safeties that profile more as box defenders are what we look for, and Johnson fits that bill.

Tripp Brebner: Derwin James. Jeremy Chinn. Kyle Hamilton. Fantasy gamers drafting safeties should aim for a prototype with the upside that transcends the position. A plus athlete at 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds, J.L. Skinner can be more than a typical split safety. Brian Branch and Skinner might be the only safeties worth picking in fantasy drafts. Players like Antonio Johnson and Jordan Battle will be more dependent upon landing spot.

Gary Davenport: In this age of hybrid safeties who spend so much time in the slot, it has become more difficult sometimes to identify safeties with the coverage skills to stay on the field and the tackling chops to be IDP-relevant. But Jordan Battle of Alabama stands out as a player with the skills and attributes to make a dent for an NFL team and IDP managers. At 6-foot-1 and 209 pounds, Battle has ideal size for a 21st-century safety. He has the speed, agility, and instincts to be an asset in coverage. And Battle isn’t shy about getting his helmet dirty in run support. If he lands somewhere with a clear path to playing time, there’s a real chance that Battle could lead all rookie defensive backs in fantasy points.

Joseph Haggan: Sydney Brown from Illinois is a player I am increasingly fond of. He was part of a strong secondary at Illinois, a program that has recently pumped out solid NFL prospects. Brown possesses excellent ball skills and anticipation. During his senior season, Brown racked up six interceptions and has 10 for his career. Brown also is a strong tackler packing a nice pop when tackling through the catch point. He has some of the most violent hands of any safety in the draft. His press coverage routinely knocks receivers off their routes and kills the timing with their quarterback. Brown is a bit short, only checking in at 5-foot-10, though he packs 210 pounds into that frame, creating a Bob Sanders-like profile. Brown can cover anywhere from the slot to the box to Cover 2, as well as a single high safety providing scheme versatility. Because of this, he could land some decent draft capital.

Matt Montgomery: While evaluating unknowns, the easiest thing we can do is look at measurables. J.L. Skinner from Boise State has all the numbers you love to see. Standing at 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds, he’s a physical freak at the position, especially in an in-the-box role. Now, he did miss the Combine due to a pectoral tear while training, which almost assuredly will drop him in the draft, but that’s exactly why I think you’ll want him. He likely won’t be highly coveted, although he probably would have tested out in the top 3-5 safeties athletically. If given the right team, he could be an immediate contributor in IDP. Those in-the-box safeties are almost extra linebackers for your team, and we all know tackles=points. He’s worth your confidence.

Conversely, neither NFL teams nor IDP drafters want to select the next Johnathan Abram—an early-round safety who just doesn’t pan out in the NFL. Which youngster gives you the most pause of the safeties expected to be drafted over the first two days in 2023?

Bellefeuil: While I'm not sure he ends up going on Day 2 of the draft, Penn State's Ji'ayir Brown does give me some pause if he does. Statistically, Brown was a solid tackle producer in college and flashed some nice play-making ability with 10 interceptions over his past two seasons. However, Brown has been prone to miss tackles during his career, as seen by his 14.6% missed tackle rate, per PFF. Another concern is Brown's underwhelming 4.65-second 40 he registered at the Combine. Brown's instincts can be a bit hit-and-miss, and he might not have the speed to recover. Undoubtedly, Brown has been a playmaker during his college career, but there are some concerns with his game.

Brebner: NFL.com's Lance Zierlein comps Antonio Johnson to Kyle Dugger. Johnson did little at the NFL Scouting Combine to confirm the comparison. While premium athleticism isn't a prerequisite for NFL success at safety, Johnson fades into the pack for IDP fantasy football.

Davenport: Don’t get me wrong—there’s a reason why Brain Branch is the top-ranked safety in this class. His talent is undeniable, and comps to Minkah Fitzpatrick likely have many IDP managers salivating. Others still will see that he was the first safety drafted, assuming that makes him the top IDP prospect. But deep safeties who amass 100-plus tackles with regularity are much more exception than the rule. Branch may well wind up the most impactful safety in this class from an NFL perspective. But if he spends most of his pro snaps deep or in the slot, parlaying that role into IDP success could be easier said than done.

Haggan: Antonio Johnson from Texas A&M was, and is, a popular name of the safety group; this year. He has all the makings of a strong box safety, but that is a role he may be relegated to, possibly limiting his NFL outlook. He is at his best when filling running lanes and almost playing a linebacker role. Johnson plays out of control and off balance when in space, causing many missed tackles. He does a poor job wrapping up and will bounce off strong running backs. His man coverage is suspect as well. I would not want him covering slot receivers. His footwork at the line is inconsistent, and he is incredibly tight-hipped when flipping into chase. Johnson could be excellent if he lands on a team where they deploy him strictly in a box safety role. For other reasons, he may be miscast into a role he does not fit, or it may take time to see the field.

Montgomery: Georgia Safety Christopher Smith would be the guy I would avoid here. He is PFF’s eighth-rated prospect at the position, but the Georgia team name makes me nervous. Will he be overdrafted due to the name on his old jersey? He’s 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds and missed 14.9% of his career tackles. Imagine someone of his stature trying to outjump a deep ball for A.J. Brown or trying to tackle DK Metcalf. In space, I just don’t see this working out well from a production standpoint in IDP. Frankly, I feel he would be better suited for corner than safety. Don’t fall in love with the team he played for!