The 2024 NFL free-agent class is loaded with big names at the skill positions. Here is a look at the wide receivers potentially on the move and the dynasty impact of their free-agent status.
Last year, and in general with the biggest names in free agency, most returned to their incumbent team. The tenent applies to Tier 1 wide receivers. Few Tier 1 and many times Tier 2 receivers hit true free agency. With team changes of high-level players, expect more tag-and-trade outcomes for a new locale.
TIER 1
All four receivers offer WR1 upside to funnel a passing game through them. Higgins is easily the youngest and most likely to break the bank with a significant longer-term contract. The annual reminder is that few big-name free agents actually hit true free agency with the weaponized franchise tag available for teams with tag and trade possibilities at a minimum, even if the end result is a team change. With Higgins' dynasty value and upside, the contrast between being the WR2 on a strong passing game (Cincinnati) versus the WR1 with a lesser quarterback is one to know the historical probabilities and averages. The average WR2 for a Tier 1 (top eight) quarterback pairing is WR35. The average WR1 for a Tier 4 (bottom eight) quarterback is WR34. The top-24 finish probabilities for the same two situations are 38% and 29%, respectively. The top-12 finish probabilities are 15% and 9%. In short, Higgins would be better off fantasy-wise staying in Cincinnati and locked in behind JaMarr Chase than with a weak quarterback and the WR1 elsewhere.
TIER 2
Odell Beckham is quietly having a decent season with 1.92 yards per route run and 21% targets per route run. Also, Beckham is one of the few receivers active in the NFL with more than a few seasons under his belt and sporting >2.00 career yards per route run, an elite figure. Beckham can still help an NFL passing game in 2024. Bourne and Brown are solid options but more WR2 types than being hopeful for WR1 results for an NFL passing game. Gabriel Davis has lagged from his promising 2021 season the past two years despite massive route figures and being paired with Josh Allen. With a high-end outcome of a big contract as a possibility back then, Davis is likely looking at a speculation deal with his 1.27 career yards per route run. Rashid Shaheed is the biggest wildcard on the list with his 2.04 career yards per route run and electric speed. Shaheed has averaged 17.4 and 16.9 yards per catch over two seasons and offers preeminent deep-threat ability.
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