Can Greg Dulcich Emerge as a Difference Maker?

Photo: Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports

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Jimmy Graham broke a lot in his career: ligaments, hands, fantasy leagues. There was the goalpost in Atlanta. That led to rules about dunking on goalposts as touchdown celebrations. Rules Graham broke.

Graham also exceeded expectations when playing with Russell Wilson and also for Sean Payton.

The fantasy football community has taken notice of this pattern. Greg Dulcich now finds himself at the intersection of these two NFL pillars, much like Graham before him. Dulcich has an average draft position of TE15 in Underdog fantasy leagues. The question is whether the environment in Denver is conducive to producing value at his relatively low-risk ranking of TE13.

Related: See the free Footballguys Spotlight for Kyle Pitts here >>

Assessing the Broncos' Personnel

The Broncos receiving room is crowded with intriguing talent. Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick, Marquez Callaway, and K.J. Hamler have all done enough in their respective careers to project as contributors if Sean Payton opts to give them starting roles.

However, there are some encouraging signs. Over Payton's last three seasons, his offenses targeted wide receivers on only 50% of pass attempts, a figure that would have ranked 30th in 2022. In Wilson's first season, he targeted wide receivers on 55% of pass attempts, which ranked 28th. It's worth noting that in 2021, Wilson's final season with Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, his rate was 65%, placing him fourth. Payton coached for much of his last two seasons without Michael Thomas available.

Despite the depth at wide receiver, running backs could be the key focus. Both Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine are adept receivers. Payton's offense targeted running backs 28% of the time, comfortably surpassing the league-leading Chargers' 26%. However, this figure comes with the caveat of having an exceptional talent like Alvin Kamara. Wilson targeted running backs on 23% of pass attempts, the fourth-highest rate.

This leaves the tight ends. Payton and Wilson both targeted tight ends at around the league average of 22%. The good news is that Dulcich's receiving abilities stand out on a depth chart that includes Adam Trautman and Chris Manhertz. The bad news is that Trautman and Manhertz are highly regarded as blockers, while Dulcich is considered the weakest blocker at the position.

Dulcich's playing time as a traditional tight end in a power-running, vertically attacking offense could be limited due to Trautman's blocking skills. His ability to deliver fantasy relevance will depend on his versatility.

Sean Payton’s Wild Card

Payton's history does not indicate strong biases toward any particular direction. He is known for his creativity, including inventing Taysom Hill's unique career and converting Marques Colston from a college tight end to a featured NFL wide receiver.

Payton has frequently employed situational football, utilizing fullbacks and running back tandems like Mark Ingram and Latavius Murray to complement Alvin Kamara and Reggie Bush. He has also utilized role-specific receivers like Ted Ginn Jr. or Tre'Quan Smith to stretch the field.

When examining the Broncos roster, Dulcich stands out as the only player with the athleticism and versatility to break free from traditional roster roles. He has seen a near-equal split of inline and slot snaps, lining up wide on occasion and even lining up in the backfield occasionally.

Dulcich must capitalize on his unique qualities to deliver value and achieve fantasy relevance. Otherwise, he risks becoming a situational player and a predictable target for opposing defenses. Marques Colston's background presents an intriguing path.

The two compare favorably, with Dulcich being slightly bigger and showcasing superior athletic testing. As offenses increasingly shift towards utilizing bigger sets and more two-tight-end formations, Dulcich has the potential for an interesting path. Colston, a converted tight end, entered the league during a time when more traditional tight ends and passing concepts prevailed. He carved out a role as a big slot receiver, using his size to exploit mismatches and becoming the Saints' all-time leading receiver in several significant categories.

This path represents Dulcich's best chance for success. If he can transition into a big slot role, similar to how the Bills hope to use Dalton Kincaid, he could become a fantasy cheat code. However, he must make this transition, as the alternative is worrisome.