Jonathan Taylor Is Who You Need in the 1st Round

Photo: Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports

This season, Jonathan Taylor is being drafted at his floor. His ceiling is the top non-quarterback in fantasy football.

Our consensus rankings have Taylor ranked as the 9th overall player in PPR formats. If he can regain his 2021 form, then the only thing standing in his way would be another receiver breaking multiple records, a la Cooper Kupp. I know, if ifs and buts were catches and rushes, we'd all be champions, but in this case, it's not so far-fetched.

The Jonathan Taylor puzzle requires understanding three pieces. First is just how impressive his 2021 season was, then why things didn't work out in 2022, and lastly, how his sophomore success could be replicated in 2023.

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Our consensus preseason projections currently have Taylor virtually tied for the third running back spot while falling nearly 60 points short of Austin Ekeler. For reference, in 2021, Taylor scored 373.1 PPR points.

Jonathan Taylor 2021

In Taylor's second season, he was unanimously selected first-team All-Pro. He finished 22nd all-time in rushing yards while not even sniffing the Top 50 in attempts. He rushed for 1811 yards on just 332 attempts and scored 18 touchdowns. He added 40 receptions for 360 yards and two touchdowns to bring his scrimmage total over the ever-elusive 2,000 yards.

He managed 941 yards after contact and finished third in broken tackles per PFR.

No matter how talented a running back is, they are not turning in a historic season without above-average line play.

Colts Offensive Line 2021

In 2021 the Colts featured the 10th highest-paid offensive lineman in left tackle Braden Smith. They had a generational guard on a rookie contract in Quenton Nelson. Eric Fisher was coming off his first Pro Bowl after an excellent final season in Kansas City. Their line was anchored by one of the league's best centers in Ryan Kelly, who was selected to his third consecutive Pro Bowl.

They started the year as PFF's No. 2 ranked offensive line. They battled injuries and underperformed in pass protection but still finished the season well above league average in run blocking. Taylor ranked first in yards before contact, and the Colts finished second in yards per carry.

They may not have been as well rounded as expectations dictated, but they put together a strong performance to help Taylor towards an all-time season.

Colts Total Offense 2021

Indianapolis finished 13th in total Offensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Their passing DVOA was ranked 20th, while their rushing DVOA ranked second.

It's been well established that the Colts offensive line excelled in run blocking, but their passing offense was at least a factor. Even with the oft-struggling Carson Wentz under center, they finished 16th in passing attempts and 10th in passing touchdowns.

With an outstanding offensive line, slightly below-average quarterback play, and a respectable output in the passing game, Taylor was able to excel in 2021, so what happened in 2022?