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OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Buffalo Bills are heading to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals as 2.5-point underdogs with a 50.5-point total. Neither team owns the records we would expect at this point in the season, but they've both shown flashes of the teams they were expected to be. For the Bengals, they've improved as Joe Burrow has gotten further and further from his pre-season calf strain. Over the past three games, he is averaging nearly 40 attempts and has thrown at least two touchdowns. He's also been sacked nine times over that span and has thrown two interceptions. For Buffalo, they've been more of a mixed bag. As a passer, Allen has exactly two touchdowns and one interception in each of his last four games, though his yardage total is all over the map. The most important note is that he has rushed for a touchdown in all but three games on the year. Drafting a player who is a near-lock for three touchdowns is a no-brainer at any cost. The difficult question to answer is who to pair him with while still stacking the Bengals.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Joe Mixon - Ribs - Probable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Ja'Marr Chase
2. Joe Burrow
3. Josh Allen
4. Stefon Diggs

BILLS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen $11,400 - Captain or Flex

Allen is the most expensive player on the slate. His median projection is also a full three points better than the next-highest projection in Stefon Diggs. He and Diggs make up the highest projected pairing, but they're also significantly more expensive than Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. With so many viable options in the mid-price range, it will be more difficult than usual to heavily stack Allen. He better serves as a Flex option with one receiver while stacking the Bengals. He can also be played at Captain with just one pass catcher as he's likely to rush for at least one touchdown.