A player’s fantasy football production can differ significantly from year to year based on a variety of factors. One of the key places to understand is when their production will be influenced by highly variable and uncorrelated stats. In many cases, players may perform better on the field but have worse fantasy production because they regress in these high-variance areas. Likewise, players may perform worse in the following season but have better fantasy production because they progressed in a positive direction in these high-variance stats. Understanding these forces will identify undervalued and overvalued players.
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When setting expectations, consider the following four tight end candidates due for regression in 2023.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Fully 13.8% of George Kittle’s targets came in the end zone, which was by far the most of any tight end in the league in 2022, ahead of Juwan Johnson (9.8%). As a result, Kittle scored a league-leading 6 touchdowns on end zone targets. Kittle also ranked third in the league in the percentage of his targets in the red zone (28.7%), behind only Cade Otton (31.7%) and David Njoku (29.1), just ahead of Travis Kelce (28%). Kittle ranked second in yards per target (9.6), so the production was there, but his touchdown expectation should be lower in 2023 than in 2022. Kittle averaged a touchdown per game in games that Brock Purdy started, despite his targets and receptions remaining consistent.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
Juwan Johnson had 42 receptions, 508 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns in his 2022 breakout performance. Johnson led the team in red zone targets (15) and finished with the team lead in six touchdowns on red zone targets. The team added Derek Carr at quarterback, a clear upgrade over Andy Dalton, but signed Foster Moreau, who could compete for snap shares. Michael Thomas is expected to return from injury, and the team signed Jamaal Williams. Overall, the added competition for Johnson will make it difficult to maintain his TE15 status, particularly if his production was based heavily on his touchdown production.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Dalton Schultz had 57 receptions, 577 receiving yards, and five touchdowns in 2022 and finds a new home in Houston on a one-year deal. Schultz had the sixth most targets in the red zone and did so in an offense that ran the sixth most plays in the league per game (64.5) in 2022. The move from Dallas to Houston should be a downgrade in quarterback and play volume, but the Houston receiving core is substantially worse than the one Schultz competed for targets within Dallas’s offense. Schultz could be a candidate to lead the team in passing receptions in 2022, which may be necessary to match his 2022 production.
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