The Top 10 from Week 11

Matt Waldman's The Top 10 from Week 11 Matt Waldman Published 11/20/2023

MISSION

You know the mission. If you don't, read it here (and thanks for checking this out for the first time)

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 11'S CLIFF'S NOTES

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list. After your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents with the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

Let's roll...


1. Wishful Thinking: Is Odell Beckham Jr Back?

The safe bet is that Beckham's three-game streak of worthwhile fantasy production is a nice run for an aging wide receiver who was once an elite NFL player. The 31-year-old Beckham had injury-riddled seasons in 2017, 2018, 2020, and at the end of 2021, which cost him the entire 2022 campaign.

There was talk that Beckham's surgically repaired knee was too delicate to hold up to football again. There were also workout videos that suggested otherwise.

One thing I've learned from podcasting with my co-host Brandon Angelo — a sports and human performance specialist who works with top athletes — that isn't as obvious as it should be until you hear it is that a player "healthy" enough to return from injury is often a far lower bar than we imagine.

A good example right now is Tony Pollard, who had surgeries on a broken leg and his ankle. His ability to move and withstand punishment is good enough to return to the field. His explosion and top-end agility are not what they were prior to his injuries.

The return to previous athletic form can take much longer than the NFL's timeline. The reason coaches often want their starters back as soon as possible — even with the downside of that player not performing to his peak athletic ability — is the player's knowledge of the scheme and execution of the complete game plan.

The optics of Pollard screwing up a pass protection plan that costs the offense Dak Prescott are more favorable for the coaches than Rico Dowdle making the same error with a "healthy enough to play" version of Pollard on the bench.

Finishing up with Pollard, we can only hope that Pollard doesn't aggravate his rehabbed injuries this year to the point that it robs him of his explosion long-term. This often happens with NFL players, especially at running back.

This is probably the root issue behind Sean Payton initially having a conflict with Michael Thomas when the Saints' receiver was beginning his rehab for a troublesome foot injury. Thomas has always been known as a detail-oriented perfectionist. This behavior pleased Thomas's coaches when he applied it to learning an offense and being on the same page with his quarterbacks.

Based on what we know publicly about the situation, I'm betting Thomas didn't want to return to the field when he was the "NFL's version of healthy," and this irked Payton. I'm also betting this is why Beckham took as much time away from the game as he did, and this generated rumors that his knee is held together with tattered duct tape that needs a good press to what it's covering before you use it.

Based on what I've seen over the past three weeks, Beckham's acceleration, stop-start quickness, long speed, and mobility are all looking good. He's one of the two best big-play weapons for the Ravens right now.

The $64 question is whether Beckham's knee can hold up enough for fantasy GMs to rely on him down the stretch. As is the case with all players returning from major surgeries, the incidence of recurrence is higher, and age can be a factor.

However, we've learned that the increased rate of recurrence isn't prohibitive enough to avoid the player. The fact that Beckham took the extra time to rehab his knee and multiple teams were interested in his services is a good indication that Beckham's time away was to make sure he'd be much closer to his pre-injury self than healthy enough to run around but looking like a[n injury-] hungover Tony Pollard.

With Mark Andrews out for the year, expect Todd Monken to put more of the offense on his trio of receivers, including Beckham, because the loss of Andrews isn't as impactful on the ground game as it is on the passing game. More on this later, but expect Beckham — who has been fantasy WR11 since Week 9 — to continue delivering top-24 production at his position.

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2. Emerging: Khalil Shakir Made Good on His Start

Yes, the Bills listed Shakir as a starter before today's game. That's a telling indication that new offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the Bills' staff have seen enough progress from Shakir this season to make him a significant part of a game plan.

Shakir often made impactful plays as a contributor during his past year and a half in the NFL. This catch was one of my favorites last year. His drops in training camp and practice kept the Bills from giving him a bigger share of snaps.

As you can see with the favorite play from last year, Shakir is a big-play option as a ball-winner on trust throws, which you don't get from Deonte Harty or Trent Sherfield. He's also a better route runner against man-to-man coverage, which makes him a player Josh Allen can trust with match-ups and not just target on plays schemed specifically for him. This is the downside of Gabriel Davis's game.

Like Harty, Shakir can give you production after the catch. In addition to the linked play I just shared, here's the best example from the week.

Shakir is WR27 in PPR leagues since Week 7, outperforming Chris Godwin, Jakobi Meyers, and George Pickens (who all have the same number of starts) during that stretch. Since Week 9, Shakir is WR24 and just 0.1 points behind teammate Stefon Diggs and ahead of Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jordan Addison.

Don't count on Shakir remaining ahead of most of these names, but he has earned a spot in many starting lineups that allot for 3-4 receivers. The Bills have come around on Shakir, so should you. With the Eagles (1), Chiefs (24), Cowboys (30), Chargers (2), and Patriots (11) as the remaining teams on his fantasy schedule, Shakir faces 3 of the 11 most generous teams for fantasy production at his position.

Considering that the Jets (32) are the stingiest pass defense in the league to receivers, the tough matchups against the Chiefs and Cowboys might be where he shines brightest due to the caliber of coverage that Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid may earn.

If you're seeking a candidate for a big stretch run, Shakir belongs on your shortlist.

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3. Finally: I'm Coming Around on Jaylen Warren

Yeah, I'm late on this one for two reasons:

    1. Najee Harris is still a good running back: Fantasy GMs and analysts go off the rails with backfield committees and wind up scapegoating one of the committee options. As we've established a long time ago, yards per carry is a trash stat that's largely dependent on offensive line performance. Harris is a skilled runner and receiver with the quickness, power, and movement skills to deliver strong production in a system that figures out how to use him optimally. How to use Harris optimally shouldn't be brain surgery, but it is clear the Steelers' offense is elementary in the worst sense of the word.
    2. Warren earned opportunities where most backs would thrive: Because Warren was the second back in the two-committee split but Harris was the proven runner, Warren earned touches that exploited the defense's assumption that Pittsburgh was throwing the ball or throwing the ball to someone other than Warren. At least this has been the case with a lot of his touches over the past two seasons. This is a common situation that gets the Yards-Per-Carry-Crowd up in arms about using the change-of-pace runner more than the primary guy.

When I first studied Warren at Oklahoma State, I saw a back whose absolute ceiling of aspiration was Maurice Jones-Drew, a special runner with excellent strength, quickness, agility, and versatility for an offense. Jones-Drew would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer if his career took place in today's NFL.

Warren's immediate aspirational player was DAndre Swift — a player who can catch and operate well in open space but needed more development with his decision-making to become a strong starter in the league as the primary back.

Warren lacked the decision-making, stop-start acceleration, and burst that made Jones-Drew great. He also needed to develop a more conceptual understanding of how to run the ball. He didn't see the field well pre-snap, which prevented him from making adjustments that led to easy solutions for NFL starters.

Warren also had some work to do with his change of direction as a runner. He often failed to cut from a balanced position, which impeded his ability to work through contact or make effective changes of direction between the tackles.

I thought a spread scheme would be the best starting point for Warren because he could produce in scenarios where there were fewer bodies in the box for him to navigate. I saw him as an aspiring committee back.

I still think he does his best work in a spread scheme, but he has improved his diagnostic skills as a decision-maker. He's also integrating a lot of his skills into his game in ways that lead to consistent production.

The Steelers need a new offensive coordinator. Both Warren and Harris have contracts that expire at the end of next year. If they get a new coordinator, Warren and Harris could be competing for a shot to re-sign with the team in 2025.

I wouldn't presume Warren is the better player. However, I'm at the point with Warren's game that I wouldn't presume the Steelers will get a new coordinator whose system will favor Harris's playing style.

If both backs remain healthy for the next year and a half, one of them will be a sought-after free agent. Until then, Warren is the better fantasy player because of how he's performing, how he's used, and the game scripts that the Steelers' lack of offense creates.

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4. Mourning: The Bengals Offense without Joe Burrow

A good rule of thumb when good starting quarterbacks are out for an extended time, and the backup doesn't bring a stint as a proven starter on his resume: Drop every fantasy-worthy player at least one tier from his current value. I'm referring to players with starter value in leagues with lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, and 1 TE.

For Jake Browning, I'd drop it 1.5 tiers, and you'll see why in a moment.

It means Ja'Marr Chase is a low-end WR2 just at the bottom of the top 24 at his position. As for players who are outside that value, they may gain enough volume to earn a slight bump and can raise selected options half a tier.

Tyler Boyd is now a low-end WR3. Tanner Hudson has been TE14 for the past few weeks due to Tee Higgins' injury. Now, he's a low-end TE1. Trenton Irwin? A low-end WR4.

A lot of this has to do with Browning's game. He lacks a strong enough arm to deliver reliably as a deep-ball thrower. He might have more success if the Bengals cut the route lengths in their deep game to 30-35 yards, but this means shorter drops and quick and confident delivery decisions from Browning, and I'm not expecting this change to happen.

Browning is at his best when he can pick apart a defense. He moves well enough to his left or right that we should see more play-action throwback plays schemed into the offense with the hope of stretching the field without forcing Browning to place the ball on time against tight coverage in one-on-one scenarios where velocity will be a factor.

Instead, expect Browning to target slower receivers making double moves against shallow zone defenders. This out-and-up to Tanner Hudson happened with Burrow, but it fits what Browning can do and how Hudson has helped the Bengals in recent weeks as fantasy TE14 since Week 9.

Browning can make plays against tight windows where the leverage is ideal for the receiver. This throw to Hudson is a good example.

While Tee Higgins is out, expect Trenton Irwin to perform within the realm of fantasy value. They'll scheme misdirection or long-developing plays for him that leverage the attention opponents will pay to Chase, Boyd, and/or Mixon.

Browning also has a lot of practice reps with Irwin as fellow second-teamers. Expect trust-throws that target Irwin.

If you're desperate for a WR4, Irwin is a consideration. Boyd is a desperation WR3. Chase is a desperation WR2. Hudson is a desperation-TE1. Browning isn't worth starting, for now.

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5. Coping: The Ravens' Offense without Mark Andrews

As we've established, Beckham has legitimate starter value right now, and he has a WR1 ceiling as the WR11 for the past three weeks. Zay Flowers' value remains stable. He'll probably earn 1-2 more routes in the middle of the field where he can work free in a slow-developing manner.

The obvious thought is an increase in Isiah Likely's workload. Count on it happening, but not enough of a bump to make him worthwhile for fantasy purposes. Andrews' blocking was not an irreplaceable asset in this offense. Patrick Ricard and Charlie Kolar can pick up the slack if there's any slack at all.

Likely is mostly a receiver. Last year, there was a need for his receiving skills. This year, Beckham, Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, and even Devin Duvernay are more appealing options for this offense.

If Likely earns a small bump, it will be on schemed plays like this hot route underneath the shallow zone of defenders for minimal yardage.

If there's a player I'd expect to earn a larger bump than what we've currently seen, it's Bateman, with whom Lamar Jackson nearly connected for a big play. Bateman has been WR59 during the past three weeks. Flowers is WR48. Beckham is WR11 and Andrews is TE12, which is the equivalent of WR38 during this span.

If Flowers, Bateman, and Beckham earn a three-way split of Andrew's volume and maintain their current three-game production moving forward, Flowers becomes a mid-range WR3 in 12-team formats, Bateman a borderline WR3, and Beckham a top-five producer at the position.

More likely, we'll see a bigger split between Flowers and Bateman, a smaller share to Likely, while Beckham's volume doesn't change significantly. In this case, Bateman becomes a mid-range WR3, Flowers a low-end WR2, and Likely, a low-end TE2.

This isn't factoring in a Lamar Jackson decrease in performance, which is probably unrealistic. You don't describe your work rapport as "peanut butter and jelly" if it isn't a strong connection different from what's achievable with others.

It's probably best to consider Flowers a mid-range WR3, Bateman a borderline WR3, Beckham a top-24 option with WR1 upside for a lineup, and Jackson either making up the difference with his legs or barely hanging inside the top-12 at his position for the rest of the year.

One exceptional possibility could occur with Kolar, whose aspirational comparison, pre-draft, in the 2022 Rookie Scouting Portfolio was Andrews. Kolar is a skilled tight-window pass catcher with a knack for finding open zones and working well with a quarterback the way Jackson did with Andrews. Kolar had this success as Brock Purdy's security blanket at Iowa State.

The Ravens drafted Kolar ahead of Likely but an injury to Kolar allowed Likely's athletic ability to earn the spotlight. This summer, Kolar performed well and took some of that juice away from Likely's stock. If Kolar can perform near his aspirational comparison, he could become a bye-week value and not see much of a decline from Jackson's numbers.

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6. Wondering: The Browns' offense with Dorian Thompson-Robinson

Cleveland's brass believes that Thompson-Robinson is a developmental project that will bear fruit. It's the reason why they parted company with Josh Dobbs this preseason. They also explained to the media this week that Thompson-Robinson's awful debut against the Ravens early in the season was due to a surprise announcement to the rookie that he'd be starting ahead of P.J. Walker.

The team told the media heading into the Steelers' game that Thompson-Robinson would be more prepared. This week's contest would be a fairer assessment of his current value as a rookie quarterback with developmental potential.

Overall, I'd say Cleveland was correct. Thompson-Robinson made quick reads, often finding the second option efficiently. David Njoku was easily Thompson-Robinson's security blanket and if Njoku didn't drop multiple targets, we might have seen a more resounding victory.

That said, Thompson-Robinson performed well enough in the two-minute offense to drive the Browns down the field for the game-winning field goal.

None of this makes Thompson-Robinson a worthwhile fantasy option this year. It does give Njoku a fighting chance to retain some value as a low-end fantasy TE1, a drop from his mid-range TE1 value from recent weeks.

Thompson-Robinson will find Njoku underneath the shallow zones and let him earn yardage after the catch.

Thompson-Robinson found Amari Cooper on quick slants, but the intermediate perimeter game was non-existent for Cleveland this week. We'll see if the Browns expand its perimeter game as it expands the scope of Thompson-Robinson's game plan.

It's probably best to drop expectations of Cooper's fantasy value from a fantasy WR1 to a WR3 and be ready for that value to drop further if Robinson-Thompson doesn't see his target options expand as soon as next week.

Elijah Moore could be the modest winner in this offense as a check-down receiver with moderate volume who can deliver 40-60 yards on 4-6 catches. That alone may propel him to high-end WR3 value in PPR formats.

The ground game won't likely have as much juice without the respect opposing defenses will have for this passing game. However, the offensive line still blocks well enough to generate production. Instead of this meaning Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford will deliver fantasy production weekly, it will mean Kareem Ford or Jerome Ford will deliver weekly.

The Broncos, Rams, Jacksonville, and Chicago are a quartet of defenses where Thompson-Robinson could manage to deliver a speculative match-up play (Jacksonville and Chicago are the most likely) if he can earn 1-2 rushing touchdowns and expand his scope of possibilities as a downfield passer.

It took Josh Dobbs six years to emerge as a viable fantasy option. Don't expect Thompson-Robinson to do it in one year just because the Browns' brass preferred his ceiling relative to his cost when comparing it long-term to Dobbs.

If you were counting on Browns' offensive players for your fantasy team, find suitable alternatives as much as you can.

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7. Hopeful: Justin Fields' Return to Action

I hope Fields finds his way to Atlanta. I'm not a Falcons fan, but I think he could be the best version of the type of quarterback Arthur Smith has been working with during his NFL career. He'd be a strong fit in Atlanta and complement this run game fantastically.

He's also far more creative and productive off-structure than any of Smith's former starters.

Fields didn't lose the Bears' lead. He actually made the throw that should have salted away a victory, but rookie receiver Tyler Scott temporarily lost the ball and slowed his break on the vertical route that should have resulted in a scoring connection.

Fields looked good in and outside the pocket. He made good decisions under pressure. If the current executive leadership is running the Bears in a couple of months, they shouldn't let Fields go, but I hope they do. He needs a new start with a team that doesn't have a history of mishandling personnel.

From what I've seen this year, I'm hopeful about Fields' future, especially outside Chicago, sad to say. Expect low-end QB1 value for fantasy production for the rest of the year.

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8. Potential: The Packers' Passing Game

I'm concerned that Green Bay lacks even one veteran receiver with extensive starter experience on its depth chart. It's too talented of a room to lack this perspective, especially for an organization betting on this young passing game to develop together.

That said, I love its potential.

Although Christian Watson hasn't lived up to the second-half standards of his rookie year, he's had some close calls this year and still remains the option with the highest ceiling. I'm not amending my optimism due to this year.

Romeo Doubs has been improving his route running and positioning at the catch point. Jayden Reed has often been the most productive receiver this year. With his speed, quickness, and versatility, he may have the highest floor of the Packers' corps.

The most intriguing option could be Dontayvion Wicks, the UVA star with the physicality at and after the catch point.

The Packers coaching staff values his reliability as a route runner. Repeat RSP Cast guest, Drew Lieberman coaches Wicks in private practice and told me last year that Wicks was an underrated option who could develop into a starter. There are moments in a lot of games this year where you can see why Lieberman looks right.

Then there's Jordan Love. These two plays give you a solid illustration of his style of play and how a lack of balance in his game can lead to wild swings from best to worst moments.

I've vacillated this year on Love's long-term value. My pre-draft assessment indicated that Love needed years of work away from the field to be ready. I think we're seeing why that proved to be the case.

Yet, I think it's still hard to tell if he will be the long-term solution in Green Bay, even with time away from the game and intermittent playing time leading to his first season as a starter.

His current value as QB14 makes him a commodity where you may have to take more risk than you'd like to land him. Considering that he's thrown 16 touchdowns to 10 interceptions with a young crew of receivers, Aaron Jones has missed significant time, and the Packers defense isn't a strong unit, I'd tip the scales in Love's favor as a player worthy of investment.

He has been QB10 for the past four weeks. He was QB4 during the opening month of the year and QB27 during Weeks 5-8. I think he needs more experience against NFL man-to-man coverage, and the rematch with the Lions may give us another indicator of how he's progressing. Still, until the receivers gain another year of playing time, I don't think there's going to be any sign that leads to a definitive opinion on him.

As for this year, the Packers have a decent enough schedule to continue investing in Love as a low-end starter if you're strong elsewhere.

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9. Lesson: C.J. Stroud's Three-INT Outing

If a bad fantasy week for a quarterback is QB14 prior to Monday night's game, that's a pretty good fantasy quarterback. The bigger question for most in the media and fantasy has been whether Stroud is a legitimate MVP candidate.

After his three-interception outing against the Cardinals, I'm guessing there we'll see split opinions. One side will argue an MVP doesn't have this type of game, which is false. The other side will point to Houston finishing on the winning side of the scoreboard.

I don't care an iota about Stroud's MVP candidacy. I'm more concerned with his long-term development. A multiple-turnover outing can be a great opportunity to see how defenses are adjusting to Stroud.

If you filter out Stroud's second interception, a pass through the mitts of Robert Woods, and include a disguised drop into coverage from Kyzir White that was a step or two away from making a potential interception on a Stroud target, I'd argue you still had three interceptable passes from Stroud in this game.

The most common reason for potential mistakes from Stroud are disguised drops where the linebacker or safety baits Stroud into thinking the field will be open where it isn't.

Baiting the quarterback with a pre-snap picture that will change early post-snap is how opposing defenses can beat anticipatory throwers — at least until that quarterback improves his early post-snap processing of the field, which is probably the most difficult thing for a quarterback to do conceptually. Asking Stroud to be consistently good at this part of quarterbacking right now is unrealistic. He is more often than many rookies, but not enough to label him an elite quarterback, even if the end results look better than the process.

That said, Stroud is a quick processor at this stage of his development and that bodes well for the future. He's also mentally tough. After a well-disguised safety blitz that resulted in a sack, Stroud followed up with a 3rd and 17 conversion from the arms of a pass rusher.

Stroud is also making some good placement decisions in tight confines. There's also the deep shot to Tank Dell that everyone can find easily.

There were two takeaways I had from Stroud's turnover-filled outing. One, he has been among the best quarterbacks in the league against split-safety coverages, but against a team that runs this a lot and can manipulate the quarterback, there were mistakes. I anticipate we'll see more mistakes where opponents figure out how to bait him pre-snap.

Two, Stroud's game didn't go into a hole because of his mistakes. That's a great sign. That said, the Texans had a lead for much of this game so there will be bigger tests.

At this point, Stroud remains a great rookie story with the promise to develop his game into a true MVP candidate within the next year or two. I think valuing him as a top-five dynasty quarterback is overpaying, especially in a sport where few quarterbacks are consistently top-five producers in consecutive seasons. The difference between mid-range QB1s and high-end QB2s is rarely substantial.

Still, if valued as a low-end QB1 in a dynasty setting, he's worth building around.

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10. Fresh Fish

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Quentin Johnston

Johnston has multiple drops this week — again. This one was a potential game-changer.

I'll be profiling Johnston's game and long-term outlook in this week's Gut Check.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week, and may your bold calls come true.

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Photos provided by Imagn Images
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