A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. Value is available throughout a draft; grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found later in a fantasy draft). To point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets in the second half of your draft.
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Here are the players who received the most votes:
- Tyler Conklin, NY Jets
- Luke Musgrave, Green Bay
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Sleepers Receiving 3 Votes
Tyler Conklin, NY Jets
Bob Harris: Conklin's 621 yards in 2023 ranked second on the team, and his 61 receptions ranked third while catching passes from four quarterbacks last season. According to Pro Football Focus, Conklin ranked No. 2 in the NFL with a 66.7 percent contested catch rate among TEs who took at least 400 passing snaps. His 12 contested catches also ranked second. More importantly, Conklin had the second-most targets on the team last year. If he maintains a similar role with Aaron Rodgers as his QB all season, you could wind up with a reaonably-priced TE2 delivering low-end TE1 totals.
Julia Papworth: Find yourself someone who looks at you like Aaron Rodgers looks at his tight ends. Rodgers has a history of peppering his tight ends in Green Bay, even when his other receiving options were deep. During his tenure in Green Bay, there were five tight end seasons where the player caught five touchdowns. Overall, in their careers, Jermichael Finley caught 19 from Rodgers, Robert Tonyan Jr 17, Richard Rodgers 13, and Donald Lee 11. Now Rodgers has Tyler Conklin in New York. Last year, Conklin averaged five targets a game and has had almost 90 targets in each of the previous three years. He is going undrafted in some leagues and could be a tremendous late-round steal, tied to a quarterback who loves to throw touchdowns when healthy - just cross your fingers that he stays that way.
Corey Spala: Conklin has 174 targets over the last two seasons since joining the New York Jets. It appears there is a key role for his services. The downside affecting his season-end finish is the lack of touchdowns, totaling three over the last two seasons. I am intrigued for Conklin to be my TE2, where there is an existing floor averaging 87 targets over the last two seasons. Conklin ranked 17th in yards-after-catch and was noted as an emphasis to improve this offseason. This selection is hoping for positive touchdown regression.
Luke Musgrave, Green Bay
Phil Alexander: Few tight ends are available in the later rounds with realistic breakout potential this year, which makes Musgrave stand out like a disco ball at a funeral. It's true Tucker Kraft also looks like an NFL starter, but it's obvious which rookie tight end the Packers preferred in 2023. While Musgrave was healthy in Weeks 1-11, he averaged a 70.3% snap share compared to 31.2% for Kraft. Dontayvion Wicks is making a lot of sleeper lists around the industry as the least expensive piece of the Packers' passing game, but Musgrave gets drafted almost two rounds later. He possesses the athleticism, pedigree, and route-running chops to emerge as a top-10 tight end. And there is still upside for more if Green Bay's passing game continues to click the way it did in the second half last season.
Gary Davenport: Musgrave didn't have a gonzo first season in the NFL—just 34 catches on 46 targets for 352 yards and a touchdown. The Green Bay pass-catchers are also a relatively deep group—including another young tight end with more than a little potential in Tyler Kraft. But Musgrave's numbers were hurt by four missed games due to a lacerated kidney, and Musgrave showed flashes at the end of last season—including averaging over 17 yards a catch with a touchdown in the Packers' Wild Card Round upset of the Dallas Cowboys.
Andy Hicks: A case for both 2023 tight-end rookies in Green Bay can be made. Between them, they recorded over 60 catches for more than 700 yards. Both looked impressive when given opportunities, but Musgrave was preferred when both were available. Training camp should tell us if one will be used over the other. Or both may be depth options only. The winner is the guy that cost the higher draft pick, Musgrave.
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