These days, it's easy to get into playing daily fantasy sports (DFS). All you need is a credit card and a connection to the internet. But if you're new to the space, the DFS world can be overwhelming and an easy place to make errors.
RELATED: An Early Look at DFS Strategy in Week 1 here >>>
Let's keep those errors from happening.
Here are the most common mistakes new players make in DFS.
1. DFS Bankroll Mismanagement
Bankroll management is one of the keys to success within DFS. Far too often, we’ve seen very experienced and profitable DFS players suddenly disappear, only to realize they had three or four bad weeks in a row. This is my 14th year playing NFL DFS, beginning in 2011, and I’ve had my share of bankroll management ups and downs, as you learn throughout your time playing the hobby.
There are two different methodologies that you could use, which are outlined below. However, the biggest thing you should never do is significantly deviate from these strategies based on a big week. Success in one week does not predict future success. To truly realize if you’re a profitable NFL player, it takes years to have a sample size large enough to factor out some of the fluctuations of winning or losing streaks.
DFS Methodology #1- The % Methodology
This one does not work for everyone as it requires more discipline, so if you’re struggling with following it, move on to methodology number two. With this methodology, you will need to allocate an annual budget and then a percentage of the budget you want to play each week. If you want to be extremely conservative, 10% of your weekly budget is on the low end, while 15-20% is more common. Then, based on your success or failure each week, you continue to play that same % of your bankroll with the amount in play, adjusting up or down accordingly.
For example, in week one, if your annual budget is $100 and you’re playing 20%, you’d play $20 in that given week. Then if you lost $10 that week, your new balance would be $90, and you’d stick to that 20% and play $18 that week, adjusting throughout the year based on wins or losses.
DFS Methodology #2- Play a pre-determined consistent dollar amount each week throughout the season
This is a method I learned from a friend who goes to Vegas and puts his daily budget in socks prior to going on the trip. He then uses only that amount of money as his budget, and win or lose, he goes to the next sock, putting back the money that he won into that day's sock at the end of the day. It’s a little extreme to use socks instead of envelopes, but it works for him.
In this method, it’s pretty simple. Each week, deposit the amount that you’re comfortable playing with. Win or lose, withdraw everything at the end of that given week. Not having money sitting in your DFS account can reduce the urge to enter college football, basketball, hockey, or any other sport you’re not as strong in.
Summary
Risk management is completely up to you. Whether you want to play 20% of your bankroll each week or 40%, at least you have a plan that demonstrates your understanding of the risks at the start of the season.
2. DFS Recency Bias
The biggest trend that we see within our DFS questions is recency bias. We hear all the time something like, “Team X gave up 200 rushing yards to this mediocre rushing attack, and now they’re facing an elite running back”. While this can work, the reality is that far more often, if you’re thinking it, so is the rest of the crowd. Even more importantly, so is the team that just gave up all those yards. NFL teams are on an evolving journey throughout the season. The season is almost double the length of the training camp in preseason, so the team that you end up with, even on a week-to-week basis, is not going to be the same. They will have different schemes, rotate players, create cohesion amongst each other, and improve throughout the year.
Another example of recency bias is that Player X has three consecutive 100-yard performances. While it’s an important fact to know, the odds again are that the site has factored this into his pricing. The opposing coaches know that Player X has seen heavy involvement, and the other receivers on that team are going to want more involvement after a breakout performance from their receivers over the last several games.
So, what does all of this mean for DFS? The short answer is that recency bias is one of the easiest ways to build a lineup, but again, if you’re doing it, so is everyone else. Instead, there is random variance within this sport, but even more so when you factor in touchdowns.
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