NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
Vegas seems to be in on the idea of the Giants, competitive in their last four games and winners of two, being a “tough cover.” That's especially true against the flailing Bengals, whose pitiful defense has been unable to stop anyone here in 2024. Since the opener, they've allowed 26, 38, 24, and 41 points, and sportsbooks have responded with a high 47 total. Given the leaky Bengals defense, and the Giants' tendency to never stop fighting, it's fair to project something of a shootout tonight. That tends to favor the pass game over the run, so tonight's QBs and their weapons should lead the way. will have to involve
Injury Report
Cincinnati comes in at near-optimal health on offense; questionable RB Chase Brown (quad) looks good to go. Conversely, the Giants are missing their two best playmakers, rookie WR Malik Nabers (concussion) and RB Devin Singletary (groin). Like last week, Nabers' mammoth 38% target share will be spread around a small, tight rotation. Singletary will again be replaced by the duo of rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. and, to a lesser extent, Eric Gray.
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