NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
This game screams “defensive slugfest,” and Vegas’ numbers reflect that. The 38.5 scoring total is the second-lowest of the slate – only the Bo Nix-Spencer Rattler battle from Thursday was projected lower (37). These defenses are tenacious and hard-hitting, and neither offense has scored consistently here in 2024.
That said, this is also a matchup that features relatively few playmakers. Both offenses tend to revolve around only 1-3 weapons, so it’s not quite as crucial we nail down multi-touchdown scorers tonight. Odds are, there won’t be any. In a matchup like this, Showdowns can be won by a bell cow back who sees 20 touches, or an alpha receiver catching 8-10 balls.
Injury Report
Both teams are relatively healthy at the skill spots. The Steelers will lack RB/KR Cordarrelle Patterson, but he’s much more a chess piece than anything; his volune shouldn’t affect much.
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