DraftKings Sunday Showdown: Week 5

Game Theory and Roster Construction

If you ever wanted to know the Vegas swing when Baltimore sits Lamar Jackson for Tyler Huntley, we have our answer: about nine and a half points. Yes, Vegas has dragged Baltimore from a way-early (-6) to today’s (+3.5). Huntley is a capable backup, but this is obviously a lesser team without Jackson… right?

So, we know the general shape of this game for the Ravens: run the ball relentlessly, leaning on Derrick Henry, and pass only when forced to.

The Falcons, then, will do their best to force those issues. And recent history tells us they can: over two games with Michael Penix Jr., they’ve netted 918 yards of offense and scored 80 points. Penix hasn’t been asked to throw much, but he’s been deadly accurate when he has. If they force Huntley into some desperate shootout, they have to like their chances.

Such a clear game shape would give us fairly solid expectations for where the rostership will go. Expect lots of Henry, lots of Flowers, and lots of Bijan Robinson. Those three could wind up so highly-played they’d need a truly massive night to wind up helping anyone.

Injury Roundup

No Jackson is one thing. No Flowers, on his way to an All-Pro caliber season, would be salt in the wound. One could argue the Jackson-Flowers connection is the only reason this team is 3-1. Thankfully for Baltimore, Flowers looks ready to suit up tonight.

Captain Consideration

1. Bijan Robinson
2. Derrick Henry
3. Drake London
4. Zay Flowers
5. Michael Penix Jr.
6. Tyler Huntley
7. Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback

Tyler Huntley (CPT or FLEX)

We can’t tell much from Huntley’s brief Week 4 appearance. He and the offense played turtle-ball once Jackson went down, but Huntley showed well in two 2025 starts: 79% completions, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions.

Still, context is key! Huntley was asked to do almost nothing in those games, both easy wins. His 6.2 aDOT over those games tells us the team did not want him throwing high-leverage passes, and I doubt that’s changed. If Zay Flowers is truly limited tonight, they could shut down entirely.

Huntley eeks into Captain Consideration on the chance he adds 40-60 yards and a touchdown on the ground. But that’s not the kind of upside to get us excited – especially when we see what’s on the other side of the ball.

Running Back

Derrick Henry (CPT or FLEX)

Everyone and their grandmothers will play him tonight, and many will Captain him, visions of 35-carry and 3-touchdown lines dancing in their heads. Those are obviously real, plausible outcomes for the best pure runner of our era; he posted 38 DraftKings points in Week One, after all.

Since then, Henry has been fed robustly (24 touches a game) but hasn’t erupted (18, 22, and 16 points). Those are solid totals, sure, but they wouldn’t be helpful in a Showdown in which:

• He’s rostered by half (or more) or your field
• You Captained him, planting your flag on a Henry Game
• He tacks on his typical 2-5 receiving points and no more

I could certainly see Henry topping that 24-touch mark and bullying his way to something like 130 yards and multiple touchdowns. Even that, though, might not justify him in this situation.

Wide Receiver

Zay Flowers (CPT or FLEX)
Rashod Bateman (FLEX)
Chris Moore (FLEX)

What a start for Flowers: 18 catches, 352 yards, and 2 touchdowns through 3 weeks, on a studly 30% target share. He’s particularly intriguing this week, as his rostership is likely to dip majorly without Jackson. Many Showdown players will immediately downgrade him, discounting the fact that just one or two giant Flowers plays can tilt a tournament. It doesn’t help (or, if you’re chasing uniqueness, it does!) that Flowers failed to log a single practice this week with leg injuries. Your GPP-mates are well aware of that, and they’ll likely back off accordingly.

Does Flowers have his typical weekly floor this week? No. But his ceiling may not need Jackson to stay intact.

Neither Bateman nor Moore carry any real appeal if Flowers plays his full run. However, Bateman showed in Week Two (7 for 88 on 9 targets, with a touchdown) he’s a capable fill-in when Flowers sits.

Tight End

Mark Andrews (CPT or FLEX)

Much of your league will play Andrews, who comes relatively cheap for a near-guaranteed 6+ targets. But Captaining Andrews wouldn’t be for the faint of heart. Still, there’s real potential for him to find the end zone at least once tonight. Since the start of last year, he’s drawn 10 looks from inside the 10-yard line, more than Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, or Christian Watson. A backup quarterback could conceivably boost his volume, too, boring and low-impact as it’s been.

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback

Michael Penix Jr. (CPT or FLEX)

What a difference recovery makes. Finally in an offense suited to his strengths, Penix is flourishing, with 479 yards on 73% completions over 2 games back. No, he’s not being asked to win games on his own – Bijan Robinson and the ground game are the catalysts. But Penix is doing things the backups couldn’t: fooling defenses with play action, hitting the easy throws, and connecting on third downs to extend drives.

He’s still a weekly wild card, as none of us truly knows what to expect down the stretch. But in this matchup, with this supporting cast, he’s as dynamic a potential Captain as any quarterback.

Running Back

Bijan Robinson (CPT or FLEX)
Brian Robinson Jr Jr (FLEX)

See Henry above. Like Henry, Bijan will dominate the rosters in your league, and he’ll have to truly scorch the turf to pay off at those levels. Bijan, though, has the better chance of doing so. He catches the ball – not just with volume (16 routes a game), but with purpose (1.85 yards per route). And he’ll remain a huge touchdown threat until (if?) this Falcons offense is ever proven a fraud.

Brian looks copy-pasted from the Tyler Allgeier role of prior years. He’s a lock for 10+ touches, he’s efficient with them, and he’s found the end zone four times over the past two weeks. To me, though, those touchdowns serve as little more than noise – bait to attract budget-conscious Showdown players. He’ll be rostered way higher than his clear-backup projects to.

Wide Receiver

Drake London (CPT or FLEX)
Jahan Dotson (FLEX)
Olamide Zaccheaus (FLEX)
Zachariah Branch (FLEX)

Offenses aren’t supposed to erupt like this when Dotson is the No. 2 wideout, but here we are. London, of course, is the driving force and then some, and this resurgence is covered in his (huge) fingerprints. He’s drawn a whopping 46% of the wide receiver targets, and he’s produced 290 yards over the past 2 weeks. Touchdowns are almost surely coming: somehow, London has yet to draw a single red-zone target through four games. He averages over 20 per year, and he scores on roughly a third of them, historically speaking. When the Falcons have to score, he’ll likely be near the forefront of it.

Dotson caught a long touchdown last week, but don’t get twisted: he’s the No. 2 by default. He’s yet to draw more than 4 targets in a game, catching just 6 of 14 overall. Zaccheaus and Branch have combined for just 48 yards on the young season.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts Sr. (FLEX)

You want to roll the dice. I want to roll the dice. Let’s just… not. Pitts has yet to pop his head into this offense, with just a 9% target share thus far. And the Falcons are trying to throw less with Michael Penix Jr. under center, not more. Last week’s 3-47 may prove to be one of his season’s high-water marks. Stuff him into a Ravens-heavy lineup if you must.

Kickers and Defenses

I like the Atlanta defense as it faces a backup quarterback. And I like that it leads the league in QB knockdowns, too. Sadly, I think most of the Showdown world will know those things by lineup lock, and much of our edge will be gone.

There’s juice to be found in the kickers, though. Atlanta’s Nick Folk is historically accurate, but missed a pair of field goals on opening day. That should bump his exposure down below that of Baltimore’s Tyler Loop, who boasts a world-class leg. But both project similarly in a game where scoring is expected, but nobody fully trusts the quarterbacks.