DraftKings Sunday Showdown: Week 9

Game Theory and Roster Construction

Vegas likes Chicago by roughly six, with a total hovering around 47 points. That implies a relatively comfortable Bears win, which most of us probably expect: something like 27-21, with most of the fantasy production coming from Caleb Williams and his cast. And it's a reasonable projection. The Bears have won three straight, after all, while Tampa Bay has semi-surged but still sits at 3-5.

But the obvious script isn't always our friend in Showdown. Most will build Bears-heavy rosters around Chicago control, which could certainly produce points. I'm more interested, though, in what happens if these defenses actually succeed against the run. Both ground games look unstoppable, but both quarterbacks could be forced into considerably more passing than they planned. And neither secondary is particularly intimidating.

I'll favor builds that capture an unexpected passing touchdown or two, from one side or the other. And I'm not opposed to a 4-2 or 5-1 Tampa Bay construction. There's little reason to expect the Buccaneers to dominate, but again: we're not looking for the most likely outcome here. In Showdown, we're looking for the wonkiest we can actually semi-predict.

Injury Roundup

The biggest question is Tampa Bay's Emeka Egbuka, who's questionable with a foot injury. He's missed two straight games but practiced fully on Thursday and Friday, so there's reason for optimism. His presence would significantly alter the Tampa Bay offense.

Chicago's Kyle Monangai is also questionable after missing four games with toe and thumb injuries. His return could cut into Swift's massive workload (see below).

Captain Consideration

1. Caleb Williams
2. Bucky Irving
3. Luther Burden III
4. D'Andre Swift
5. Colston Loveland
6. Emeka Egbuka
7. Rome Odunze

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (FLEX)

What on earth are we supposed to make of Mayfield and his volume? Tampa Bay has completely abandoned the pass game over the last two weeks, with Mayfield attempting just 14 throws. Last week's weather-soaked victory over Atlanta was particularly bizarre: Mayfield went 0-for-3, while the Buccaneers rushed for 324 yards. That's… certainly one way to win an NFL game.

Of course, we know the Buccaneers value Mayfield, and that typical game flow will provide much more opportunity. Still, it's fair to wonder where his hand health is after a dislocated thumb cost him three starts. Even before last week's monsoon, the passing attack hadn't been close to explosive. The Buccaneers are dead last in passing yardage, and none of their receivers has reached 250 yards.

I would typically love to chase the underdog passer in a game like this, but not this one, and not right now. Even if Mayfield throws with volume, I don't see a path to dynamism. His supporting cast lacks matchup-winners, even if Emeka Egbuka suits up, which means a safe, dependent "attack." Read: low-impact, low-upside. Any Buccaneer-heavy builds of mine will likely focus on some level of exposure to the running backs. Speaking of which…

Running Back