As fantasy football connoisseurs we like to believe we're rational and logical. We analytically evaluate past results and confidently march through the offseason, scouring for new data, fine-tuning strategies, and clearing shelf space for next season's incoming championship hardware. The truth is that we are continually under the influence of cognitive biases while we prepare, evaluate, and parse information. These biases can distort thinking, influence beliefs, sway decisions, and cloud judgments. They can skew the inputs and garble the outputs.
Sometimes, cognitive biases are pretty conspicuous. You might easily identify these tendencies in yourself or discern them in others without much effort at all. In other cases, these biases piggyback on our processes like goosebumps on a cold day.
The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines the word "Bias" as:
an inclination of temperament or outlook.
deviation of the expected value of a statistical estimate from the quantity it estimates.
systematic error introduced into sampling or testing by selecting or encouraging one outcome or answer over others.
Now that we've laid the groundwork, let's take a look a closer look at some cognitive biases that can impact your preparation for the upcoming fantasy football season:
1. Anchoring Bias
Being over-reliant on the first piece of information or data that's digested on a certain player or range of outcomes and/or productivity. It happens every time you depend heavily on that initial data when making a choice or forming an opinion, even if it's not the most relevant.
2. Clustering Illusion
The tendency to search for patterns in statistics, data sets, or information. Sometimes, the data is exactly that: "random."
3. Ostrich Effect
The decision to ignore dangerous or negative information. Example: dismissing a player's injury history or a significant coaching change as a non-issue.
4. Outcome Bias
Judging a decision based on the outcome, not reviewing the validity of the factors that led you to that decision at the moment. It's important to know if the process was flawed and luck was a major factor along the way or if maybe the strategy was solid, but the interruption or application was incorrect.
5. Overconfidence
Some of us are just too confident in our abilities to evaluate, draft, set lineups, trade…or all of the above.
6. Recency Bias
Weighing the latest information more heavily than older data that has a larger sample size and/or more validated results. It's easy to overvalue recent news, events, and performances.
7. Confirmation Bias
Selectively looking for, listening to, and absorbing information that confirms and supports our preconceptions and the outcomes we desire.
8. Conservatism Bias
When folks find comfort in prior evidence over any new and emerging data. It's characterized by inaction in the face of new evidence. Basically, it's the opposite of recency bias.
9. Information Bias
The tendency to seek additional information – never satisfied with the actionable information already in hand.
10. Bandwagon Effect
The probability of adopting a belief is based solely on the number of people already holding that belief. If everyone thinks this player is a buy (or sell), then I need to adjust my opinion accordingly.
11. Blind Spot Bias
Failing to recognize your own cognitive biases. Example: someone who is resistant to new data after planting a flag (conservatism bias in action), but yet he or she is completely UNAWARE they're susceptible to it on a consistent basis.
12. Choice-Supportive Bias
When you choose something you tend to feel positive about, neglecting to properly weigh the flaws of that choice. For me, it's drafting a QB in the 1st round whenever I swim in Superflex draft waters because I simply feel more secure in my roster build exiting the first round with a quarterback.
13. Salience
Our tendency to focus on the most easily recognizable features of a player, value, or strategy. Sometimes, the truth is lying a layer or two beneath the surface.
14. Selective Perception
Allowing our expectations (over data) to influence how we perceive a player, a position, a league scoring system, or a player's market value.
15. Zero Risk Bias
We all love certainty - even if it can be counterproductive. It's the tendency to eliminate all options with risk even when some risk-laden alternatives may produce better results. Example: Shying away from all trades where you're not the immediate winner by a landslide.
16. Stereotyping
Expecting a person or group to have certain qualities without having player-specific data to support this assumption. An example would be Player A has a slight build; therefore, he'll be injury-prone throughout his career.
17. Working Backward Bias
Okay, this one is mine and is a first cousin of confirmation bias. This is the tendency to "deconstruct" or work our way from the finish line back to the starting point using whatever process or tools work along the way. Too often, the outputs are studied, looking to uncover elements, ingredients, strands, and facets that lead back to what we already BELIEVE are the right answers.
Being aware of the biases that can impact and hinder our approach to this hobby is a crucial element to establishing long-term, consistent success. We handicap ourselves when we limit options or information and when we fail to identify the constraints we subconsciously apply to our daily routines. Hopefully, this closer look at some of the psychological biases associated with fantasy football decisions can help as you execute your strategies going forward.
Thanks for reading! If you want to learn more about Dynasty Fantasy Football and the strategic nuances associated with fantasy football in general, follow me on X (Twitter) @Ciga_FF. Let me know your questions and how I can help.
