Underdog Pick Em Week 1

Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is here, and Underdog Fantasy is offering some incredible promos to kick off the action.

One of the standout offers this week is a Free Pick for Travis Kelce in the season opener on Thursday night. Whether you’re new to Underdog or a seasoned player, this is a great opportunity to take advantage of the bonus and add it to your Week 1 plays. While I will not include Kelce in my official picks, make sure you add him to the Chiefs-Ravens Pick'em featured below:

For those unfamiliar, Underdog Pick'em is an exciting daily fantasy game where players can make predictions on player performance across various stats. The concept is simple: choose whether a player will go higher or lower on their projected stats, and if all your selections are correct, you can win big.

How It Works
To get started, you need to pick at least two props from two different teams. These can range from a player’s touchdowns, passing yards, or even fantasy points. You’ll select whether each prop will go higher or lower than the projected stat.

Payouts
The payout structure is designed to reward you based on the number of selections in your ticket. The more props you add, the higher the potential payout. Typically, Underdog Fantasy's pick'em contests follow these payout multiples:

• Two picks: 3x
• Three picks: 6x
• Four picks: 10x
• Five picks: 20x

I’ll note if any of the picks given in this article have a different payout structure for you to keep in mind. So, whether you're placing a simple two-pick ticket or shooting for the stars with five, there's plenty of options.

Opening Night Overs

Patrick Mahomes II – Higher than 293.5 Pass + Rush Yards

• Ravens LB Roquan Smith mentioned that Baltimore's defensive game plan is to take away the run and force Mahomes to beat them through the air, a strategy that’s been easier said than done.
• In his career against the Ravens, Mahomes holds a 4-1 record, has thrown for 13 TDs with only 2 INTs, and averages 344 passing yards per game.
• With key weapons like Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and speedster Xavier Worthy on hand, Mahomes is well-positioned to hit big passing plays and surpass 293.5 total yards.

Xavier Worthy – Higher than 44.5 Receiving Yards

• Worthy, who set a combine record with a 4.21-second 40-yard dash, brings back the deep ball threat the Chiefs once had with Tyreek Hill. His speed alone is likely to lead to multiple deep shots from Mahomes.
• In limited preseason action, Worthy already connected with Mahomes for a 39-yard reception, showcasing his ability to make explosive plays.
• Worthy's speed also creates opportunities for others, as seen when three defenders were drawn to him on a deep route, opening up the middle for a 20-yard completion to Justin Watson. Expect similar impact plays in the season opener.

"You just know what Andy Reid wants against the Ravens

they are looking for one highlight. Xavier Worthy catching a deep pass. That is the message."

- @ByNateTaylor via Scoop City pic.twitter.com/kZ3ljCInc1

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 3, 2024

Zay Flowers – Higher than 52.5 Receiving Yards

• Flowers has been Lamar Jackson’s go-to target in training camp and joint practices, especially with Mark Andrews missing time. In the Ravens' last meeting with the Chiefs, Flowers put up an impressive 5-115-1 stat line.
• Camp reports suggest that Flowers has climbed to the top of the pecking order, giving him a strong chance to lead the team in targets, especially if Andrews is eased back after missing time due to a car accident.
• In a high-scoring game, expect Jackson to look Flowers' way frequently, increasing his chances to exceed 52.5 yards.

Isaiah Likely – Higher than 15.5 Receiving Yards

• With Andrews potentially being limited in his return, Likely should continue his strong rapport with Lamar Jackson, as seen throughout training camp and joint practices.
• Likely has filled in admirably as Jackson’s safety valve, and with only 16 yards needed to cash this pick, he could easily surpass that on just one or two receptions.
• In a game that could feature plenty of passing, especially if the Ravens are playing catch-up, Likely’s role as a secondary target makes this a smart bet.

Ravens GM Eric DeCosta thinks they have the best tight end duo in the league. I agree—and got into one reason why Baltimore is so hard to stop when they have two tight ends on the field. pic.twitter.com/DfJ7fuHFfb

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) August 30, 2024

Bookkeeping Note: This Pick 4 pays out 8.3X instead of 10X due to the correlations.

Picking Winners and Losers in Cardinals-Bills

In a game with one of the highest Week 1 totals at 48.5 points, we know there will be plenty of passing yards to go around. We will try to hit a 10x payout by picking the pass catchers most likely to hit their overs and identifying where there may be value in unders.

James Conner – Higher than 10.5 Receiving Yards

• While the Cardinals are a run-first team under offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, Conner’s versatility out of the backfield also makes him a key component in the passing game.
• Conner hit his first 1,000-yard rushing season in 2023, but he has shown the ability to contribute in the receiving game when needed. He has averaged 20.5 receiving yards per game in three season with the Cardinals.
• Petzing has called Conner the "bell cow" of this offense, and with the expectation of quick dump-offs and check-downs, Conner should top 10.5 receiving yards against the Bills.

Greg Dortch – Higher than 26.5 Receiving Yards

• Slotted as the Cardinals' primary slot receiver, Dortch has become a reliable target, especially in finding soft spots in coverage. His shifty route running gives him an edge in this offense.
• In limited action last year, Dortch became one of Arizona’s most consistent pass catchers. While he only recorded 280 yards, he maximized production with the opportunities given.
• With a likely increase in targets this year, Dortch should have a great shot to top 26.5 receiving yards.

Khalil Shakir – Higher than 43.5 Receiving Yards

• According to Footballguys’ Bills expert Jeff Bell, the Bills' passing attack will primarily flow through Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir this season. Shakir is the only receiver on the roster who has previously caught a pass from Josh Allen.
• Hundreds of targets are available with vacated opportunities in this offense after the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and Shakir is well-positioned to absorb a large share due to his established trust with Allen.
• Shakir’s production under OC Joe Brady speaks for itself: 438 yards and 3 TDs over the last nine games. With Curtis Samuel dealing with turf toe and rookie Keon Coleman in his first game, Shakir is primed for a strong start against a vulnerable Cardinals defense.

Let’s give this guy 140 targets and see what happens. pic.twitter.com/9mJO88pRz8

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) August 30, 2024

Keon Coleman – Lower than 33.5 Receiving Yards

• Coleman, while talented, is playing in his first NFL game, which often means limited snaps or targets, especially in an offense that may focus more on established players like Shakir and Kincaid.
• In a game with so many established targets, it’s likely that Coleman sees limited action, making the under on 33.5 yards a strong bet. We are getting a sneaky correlation play here by taking Shakir's over and Coleman's under. We are picking the winners and losers in the wide-open competition for targets in Buffalo.

Grab Bag of Favorite Overs

These are some of my favorite fantasy point overs from different games in Week 1. They feature players who are primed to exceed expectations based on matchups and usage.

Tee Higgins – Higher than 10.25 Fantasy Points

• Higgins should be the Bengals' go-to option in Week 1, thanks to the substantial time he spent practicing with Joe Burrow while Ja'Marr Chase held out during training camp.
• Though Chase will be back, he is likely to face a tough matchup against Patriots' top corner Christian Gonzalez, leaving Higgins in a more favorable spot to rack up points.
• With Burrow valuing practice chemistry, Higgins is in a great position to hit his fantasy points over.

Malik Nabers – Higher than 10.85 Fantasy Points

• Nabers is entering a fantastic matchup against Vikings cornerback Byron Murphy II, who was targeted on 21% of coverage snaps last season and allowed 0.47 fantasy points per snap.
• In his rookie debut, Nabers has the potential to set the tone early, with the Vikings’ defense still allowing plenty of fantasy production to opposing wide receivers.
• Nabers has shown flashes of brilliance in training camp and preseason, and he could steal the show with a strong performance against Murphy in Week 1.

Malik Nabers rookie year expectations:

Offensive Rookie Of The Year
1500+ yards
12+ TDs

I can see all 3 happening ? pic.twitter.com/IMDPRTNS7J

— evin (@KayvonOjulari) September 4, 2024

Rome Odunze – Higher than 7.85 Fantasy Points

• After a stellar All-American season at Washington, Odunze was the Bears' No. 9 pick in the 2024 draft and is expected to be a top target for rookie QB Caleb Williams.
• Odunze led the FBS in receiving yards and excelled in contested catches and deep balls, making him a big-play threat in his NFL debut against the Titans.
• His connection with Williams was evident in the preseason, and they are poised to deliver big plays together in Week 1.

Taysom Hill – Higher than 6.65 Fantasy Points

• Hill, newly voted as a team captain, is set to be a major contributor in the Saints’ offense, filling roles as a pass-catcher, runner, and even lead-blocker.
• Hill’s versatility will shine in Klint Kubiak’s offense, as he takes snaps at fullback, tight end, and out of the backfield.
• His ability to make plays across the board, including QB power runs and short-yardage conversions, makes this a very achievable fantasy points over.