Underdog Pick Em: Week 10

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. 

How It Works

To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points, and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

This article highlights a few of my favorite player props for Week 10, including different payout options. Whether you're aiming for a simple two-pick win or stacking five props, I've got you covered.

Rookie Special (3X)

In a matchup between two teams just playing out the string on disappointing seasons, the focus is on finding reasons for future hope. What better way to do that than by giving a pair of exciting rookies opportunties? We are taking advantage of some small positive correlation here, also.

Tyrone Tracy Jr.. Higher than 11.5 Receiving Yards

• Since becoming the starting back for the Giants, Tracy has topped 10 receiving yards only once in five games, but he seems due for a mini-breakout as a pass catcher.
• Tracy, a former wide receiver, played five seasons at that position in college before switching to running back in 2023, showcasing solid pass-catching skills that the Giants could better utilize to unlock their offense's potential.
• Interestingly, Tracy was more productive as a receiver before taking over the lead role, with back-to-back games of at least 17 receiving yards before his breakout in Week 5; last week, Panthers running backs totaled seven catches for 85 yards against the Saints.

Xavier Legette Higher than 31.5 Receiving Yards

• In seven career games in which he has played at least half the snaps, Legette has topped 32 receiving yards five times (71.4%).
• In the last two games with Bryce Young back at the helm, Legette has seen at least six targets and topped 33 receiving yards in both games.
• The Giants have given up 32+ receiving yards to 11 different receivers over the past five weeks

Superstar RBs (3X)

The Falcons are 3.5-point road favorites and this prop is premised on the idea that Atlanta jumps out to an early lead. The Saints are in a tailspin and the Falcons should look to establish dominance by pounding New Orleans on the ground with Bijan Robinson. The Saints offense is beat up and Alvin Kamara is the only top target for Derek Carr still healthy. He should see a massive target share in what could be a pass-heavy game script should Atlanta have early offensive success.

Bijan Robinson Higher than 77.5 Rushing Yards

• Bijan Robinson has averaged 86.8 rushing yards on 17.0 carries per game over his last four games, topping 86 rushing yards in three of those contests.

Bijan Robinson had his fourth straight game with 100+ total yards.

“I'm just going out there and having fun, knowing God has me, and just being a dynamic force for this offense.” https://t.co/oEF824BYLU

— Gabe Burns (@GabeBurnsAJC) November 4, 2024

• In the previous matchup against the Saints, Robinson was banged up, leading to Tyler Allgeier taking on a larger role with 60 yards on eight carries.
• The Saints' defense has struggled recently, suffering a seven-game losing streak during which they have allowed at least 26 points in five of six games (the only exception being 23 points to the Panthers last week).
• During this streak, the Saints have been particularly vulnerable to the run, surrendering:
  • 147 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Saquon Barkley,
  • 192 total yards and two touchdowns to Sean Tucker (plus 105 yards and a touchdown to Bucky Irving in the same game),
  • 111 yards and two touchdowns to Javonte Williams,
  • 102 rushing yards and a touchdown to Kareem Hunt.

Alvin Kamara Higher than 37.5 Receiving Yards

• Alvin Kamara has averaged 6.0 catches for 39.2 yards on 8.7 targets per game over his last six games, and with the Saints' wide receiver group severely depleted, his target share is set to rise.
• Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave, and rookie Bub Means are all out, leaving veteran Cedrick Wilson Jr. (questionable with a shoulder injury) and undrafted rookie Mason Tipton as the top remaining wide receivers.

• The Falcons defense has been solid against the run but has been hurt by running backs in the receiving game. Last week, Rico Dowdle had five catches for 32 yards and a touchdown. The week before, Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined for 12 catches, 78 receiving yards and a touchdown. 

  https://t.co/RX36C1WOrd
  This #Saints season may have devolved into disaster, but you wouldn't know it from the performance of Alvin Kamara

  — Bob Rose (@bobbyr2613) November 7, 2024

• The last time these teams met, Kamara caught seven passes for 42 yards.

Kelce Stays Hot (3X)

We have another positively correlated play here. The bet here is that the Chiefs pass offense finds success against a tough Broncos defense, which forces the Broncos to go with a more aggressive, QB-centric offensive approach.

Travis Kelce Higher than 57.5 Receiving Yards

• Since Rashee Rice's injury, Kelce has posted impressive receiving numbers, with at least 70 receiving yards in four of his last five games.
• Over this stretch, he has averaged 8.8 receptions for 73.2 yards on 10.4 targets per game.
• Kelce has commanded a massive 32% target share since Rice's injury.
• Against the Broncos last season, Kelce averaged 91.0 receiving yards per game and has a career average of 77.5 yards per game against Denver.
• Last week, he tied his career high with 14 catches. The recent usage has been well above his career norms.

Bo Nix higher than 24.5 Rushing Yards

• Nix has been especially impactful as a runner when the Broncos have trailed, rushing for at least 25 yards in each of the Broncos' four losses.
• Over his last four games, he has averaged 44 rushing yards on 6.8 carries per game, reaching at least 35 rushing yards in all but a blowout win over Carolina.
• The Chiefs have struggled to contain athletic quarterbacks —Lamar Jackson ran for a season-high 122 yards against Kansas City, and Brock Purdy rushed 8 times for 27 yards and two touchdowns a few weeks ago.

Spags on Bo Nix:

I went back and watched the first game he played in and was – I thought Sean had him doing things that sometimes you say, ‘Do you have a rookie do it in the first game that he plays?' But yet, there he is doing it. I just think he's gotten better every week. He…

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) November 7, 2024