Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to identify the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to equip you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations to help you identify the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much the team is favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
The Bengals–Bills matchup carries the highest total on the slate. Any time two of the league's top quarterbacks face off, you have real shootout potential. The wrinkle this week is that both defenses are more vulnerable on the ground, which raises the chance that the game plays out slower than expected. Both offenses have leaned on their running games lately and could try to control the ball to keep the opposing quarterback on the sideline.
This is also a slate loaded with strong offenses in favorable spots. Six teams have totals above 25 points: Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Seattle, Buffalo, and the LA Rams.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is to compare each team's implied total from oddsmakers with its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 14 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Cleveland
We don't want to touch the Browns' passing game, but Quinshon Judkins becomes interesting whenever Cleveland is in a favorable spot. The last time the Browns were solid favorites came in Week 7 against Miami, when Judkins had his best game of the season with 25 carries for 84 yards and three touchdowns.
Minnesota
A 15% weekly boost and plus positional matchups across the board against Washington make this an intriguing situation. The Vikings were bad chalk in a similar Week 11 setup as home favorites against Chicago. It's tough to trust any piece of this offense, but the data points to this being a spot worth including in tournament builds.
Green Bay
The Packers just lit up a strong Detroit defense and now draw another favorable matchup across the board. Their 25.5 team total against Chicago keeps all of the main pieces in play.
Buffalo
Cincinnati has struggled mightily against opposing running backs, and the Bills are coming off a season-high 249 rushing yards against Pittsburgh. James Cook should be one of the more popular plays on the slate.
LA Rams
The Rams have the second-highest team total on the slate at 28 points. Davante Adams has 11 touchdowns in his last six games and remains the focal point of the offense.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 14 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Seattle
The –12% Week 14 boost is a concern for the Seahawks. Even so, this is a plus matchup for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is looking to bounce back after his first game of the season with fewer than 79 receiving yards.
NY Jets
The Jets carry a –7% Week 14 scoring boost, but Tyrod Taylor draws another favorable matchup. Miami is giving up 2.3 PPG above expectation to opposing quarterbacks, which keeps Taylor in play.
FanDuel
Let's take a look at the top options on FanDuel according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett
It feels like Brissett has shown up in this spot every week for the past month, but he keeps producing and remains well under $8,000 at just $7,200. He topped 300 passing yards for the third straight week in the 20–17 loss to Tampa Bay and is averaging 312.6 passing yards per game in his seven starts. That works out to a 17-game pace of 5,314 yards.
Jordan Love
Love is tough to trust in cash games since he has thrown zero touchdowns in three of his last five outings. He profiles as a strong tournament play in a good matchup against Chicago after throwing four touchdowns on Thanksgiving.