My colleague Josh Fahlsing and I gaze into our crystal footballs each week to find players who may become popular waiver targets in the future so that you can pick them up now for next to nothing.

Over 10 weeks, the roster share of a third of the players we've highlighted has risen by at least 20 percentage points, with roughly one out of six rising by more than 40 percentage points. We've whiffed on quite a few fliers, but we've also presaged the future in ways that paid off for managers who claimed some of these guys off waivers before they hit.
As always, we'll start with our priorities, then gaze deeper for lightly rostered gems who have been largely ignored by dynasty managers so far.

Josh: I can't really say any of my choices this week have been ignored by dynasty managers. I mean, I know I have personally tried my best to ignore all of them, but, man, I end up with one of these guys on a roster every year around this time. This week, I thought I'd take a look at a few advanced metrics to see if there was anyone out there who was giving off indications he could help a contender down the stretch if given opportunities for touches. They had to be rostered in fewer than 50 percent of Sleeper dynasty leagues, and I required at least double-digit carries or routes run.

The universe heard my plea and boomeranged the same three guys back to me again for another year. None of the players I chose this week are going to help anyone every week unless there is an injury in front of them. Each one could have a week where they pop, though, so contenders could do worse for emergency stashes. 

Dynasty Waiver Priority Pickups

RB Ty Johnson, Buffalo (47% Rostered)

I'll make Johnson my dynasty waiver priority pickup because (1) he is the most rostered of my three players this week and (2) he plays running back. It would take an injury to James Cook for Johnson to have a chance to pay off every week, but we've seen this coaching staff use him before, particularly as the weather gets harsher late in the season, and we've seen him pay off their trust.

The reason he caught my eye this week was that, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, he ranks 9th among running backs with at least 10 carries with a 50 percent rush success rate. This stat measures the percentage of the player's carries that resulted in positive expected points added. For context, the average success percentage on a designed rush for a running back is 38 percent. Now, before we get too excited, we should remember that Johnson has just 18 carries on the season. This owes, at least in part, to the fact that James Cook has carried the ball 166 times with a hefty 49.4 percent success rate.

I like Johnson as a stash for contenders, though, for a few reasons. First, as mentioned above, the coaching staff has demonstrated trust in him before. If the worst happens and Cook is injured, Johnson will almost certainly be a part of what the Bills patch together to replace him. Second, Johnson has been a successful rusher in limited opportunities throughout his career, and his rush success rate this year suggests he could continue to be one if he were called upon to play a bigger role. Finally, Johnson already has a consistent role in the passing game, so he has a floor that you can feel decent about. Despite Cook's dominance in the Buffalo backfield, Johnson is not far behind him in routes run (125-108), targets (20-11), and receptions (18-6). 

The right backup running back can carry your contending dynasty roster through the late-season doldrums and into the playoffs. Johnson is as good a bet as any to be able to contribute at some point down the stretch. Jeff, who's your dynasty waiver priority, and what cool Next Gen stat backs it up?

Jeff: I'm afraid my stat is neither cool nor Next Gen, but it is alarming.

QB Trey Lance, Los Angeles Chargers (19% Rostered)

Justin Herbert leads the league in dropbacks (417) and pass attempts (358). He's been blitzed (104) and pressured (109) more than anyone else, and he's been sacked the third-most times (33). He leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (324) and is fifth in scrambles (26). He's also missing both of his starting offensive tackles and both of his top two running backs entering the season. Collectively, these factors demonstrate how often Herbert's body could take a hit.

Here's that alarming stat I promised: he's been sacked or knocked to the ground a league-leading 85 times while attempting to pass, 21 more times than anyone else. That doesn't include the number of times he has been hit or tackled while carrying the ball. There's no questioning Herbert's toughness, and I'm not saying he's about to get knocked out of a game (or games), but he's taken more punishment than any other quarterback this year.

Lance is available in more than 80 percent of Sleeper dynasty leagues. He's my dynasty waiver priority not only because he backs up the quarterback of the pass-happiest team in the league, but also because he's just 25 years old, much younger than the typical journeyman backup, and he's younger than rookie starter Tyler Shough. Much like the universe boomeranging the same guys to Josh every season, Lance has probably been added and dropped in your dynasty leagues more times than he has thrown touchdown passes (5). If he's available and you have a bench spot, Lance is the kind of player who can save your Superflex spot from going to your fifth wide receiver, potentially for years to come.

Josh, take us into deep-dart territory.

Dynasty Waiver Deep Darts