Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 9

If there is a silver lining to having six teams on bye, it's that there seemed to be fewer injuries than usual in week eight. There were a few, but opportunities to add significant defensive contributors via waivers are rather slim as we start down the back stretch of the fantasy season.  We are now into the micro-management and matchup portion of the program, with possibly a splash of trade negotiations.

One point I like to stress around this time of year is the importance of league integrity.  It's easy to keep battling if you are .500 or better, but it's important not to quit if you are 3-5 or worse. In most formats, a team with seven or fewer losses is not eliminated. A couple of years back, I scraped into the playoffs in the Huddle Experts league on tiebreakers, with a 6-7 record, and went on to lose the championship game by a narrow margin. Just last year, I turned a 3-5 start into a 7-6 record and a championship in a different league.

It's not over until it's over, but even if you are eliminated, it is important to the integrity of the league that you continue to enter your best lineup each week. The game may not matter to you, but most of the time, it matters to someone else. It is unfair for a manager to get an easy win because an owner stops trying when another owner needs the non-contender to win. Commissioners, this can ruin your league. Don't let it happen. At the very least, make sure everyone enters a viable lineup each week.

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

This would be a good week to keep all of your Cardinal defenders on the bench. The Cowboys are a great matchup for corners. Unfortunately, Arizona has no corners with fantasy value to take advantage. Dallas is a horrible matchup for linemen, and especially pass rushers. Tackle totals have been mediocre, but they have allowed five sacks over the last five games, and only three to the edge position. No linebacker has recorded more than three solo stops against them since week five, and the position has one takeaway with no sacks against them in the last five games.

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

I have not yet had a chance to scout the Falcons' week eight loss fully. In the series or two that I have seen, Kaden Ellis was not working outside as an extra pass rusher as he had been doing often in previous games. With the loss of Divine Deablo, he was lining up as more of a traditional middle backer. As a result, Ellis posted his best tackle production of the season at 7-5, adding a pass breakup. I didn't catch it in week seven, but his numbers (4-5 with an interception) suggest that Ellis's role changed in that game. The bottom line here is that his two most productive games of the season were in weeks seven and eight, and he has an excellent matchup with the Patriots on tap for week nine.

JD Bertrand has filled in nicely since replacing Deablo. He put up 10 combined stops on an 87% playshare in week seven, followed by 9 and a pass breakup on 99% of the action last week. The Patriots have allowed the fifth most points to linebackers, so there should be plenty of opportunity to support both players this week.

Another sign that the Falcons have tweaked their approach without Deablo is that their only sack in week eight came from corner Dee Alford.

Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills

Ed Oliver was playing well before the biceps injury. Buffalo is holding out hope that he will get back on the field before their season is over, but there is almost no chance he will return in time to help us.

Buffalo's defensive line was credited with all seven of the team's sacks against the Panthers, with seven players getting in on the action. Don't expect much of an encore this week versus the Chiefs, who have surrendered two or fewer in six of eight games.

One interesting note from week nine is that Michael Hoecht led Buffalo's edge position in snaps at 66%. This is something to monitor going forward.

Matt Milano was out again, and apparently, so was Terrell Bernard, though he did not show up on the team's inactive list. Bernard continues to nurse a sore ankle, so Dorian Williams and Shaq Thompson could be the team's linebackers again this week. Hopefully, the injury reports will be more accurate this week.

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

In week eight, Christian Rozeboom saw more than 82% of the action for the first time since week four. His 95% share led to seven solos, five assists, and his highest point total of the season. Unfortunately, it was not by design, but rather because Trevin Wallace left the game with a stinger. The injury is not believed to be serious, but it could linger with the potential to cause missed time for Wallace. Claudin Cherelus finished the game and would be the starter if Wallace is not ready, but it is Rozeboom who stands to gain the most statistically.  

Think twice about starting Derrick Brown or A'Shawn Robinson this week. The Packers have allowed 4 sacks in their last 5 games. None to interior linemen.

Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears

Throughout his career, Montez Sweat has been a streaky player. Right now, he is on a heater. He is coming off a 4-3-1 against the Ravens. Over his last five games, Sweat is 14-5-3 with 2 forced fumbles and a batted pass. Next on the menu is a Bengals squad that has protected Joe Flacco well, allowing five sacks over the last three games. However, Cincinnati could be back to Browning this week, as Flacco is dealing with a sore shoulder. That big sucking sound you might have heard on Sunday was the air going out of the Bengals after giving up a two-score lead to the then-winless Jets in the fourth quarter. Call it a gut feeling, but I like Sweat's chances to keep the streak alive in this one.

Nahshon Wright had a strong statistical performance, going 6-3 versus the Ravens, who are normally a weak matchup for corners. With Tyrique Stevenson likely on the shelf with a sore shoulder, Wright becomes the Bears' number one corner, which likely means he will see a lot of Ja'Marr Chase, who sees a ton of targets. It's a formula for a big game by Wright.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

Trey Hendrickson gave it a go last week but is far from 100% healthy with the hip injury. He made it through the first quarter before hobbling off, never to be seen again. There is no structural damage, but hip pointers are very painful and slow to heal. He may suit up again this week, but I would be very nervous about starting him.   

The trade deadline is fast approaching (next week). There are no trade rumors involving Logan Wilson, but there are contenders out there that could certainly use him. If you have held on this far, try to make it through one more game before cutting ties.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett was a game-winner and a shoo-in for defensive player of the week after piling up 6-0-5 with a forced fumble against New England. Unfortunately for the Browns, that's where the good news ends.

The bye week couldn't have come at a better time for the team. Tyson Campbell was knocked out of last week's contest with a concussion, and star rookie linebacker Carson Schwesinger suffered a high ankle sprain. The week off could keep Campbell from missing any game time, but high-ankle sprains often keep players out for a month or more. Mohamoud Diabate finished Sunday's game, going 5-0 with a forced fumble on 25 plays. If Schwesinger misses time, look for Devin Bush to take over the lead role with Diabate as the second starter.

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys

The Cardinals have given up 17 sacks over their last four games. The problem is, Dallas has no one that we can count on to take advantage of the opportunity. James Houston IV leads the team with 3.5 sacks, but he has played 137 snaps in eight games. Kenny Clark is second with 1.5.

Playing a Cowboys lineman is a crap shoot at best, but Shemar James has to be in our lineups, and Kenneth Murray Jr. is a strong option as well. Since week four, the linebacker position has averaged 19+ combined stops, a splash play, and a pass breakup against the Cardinals.  

With both starting safeties out, Dallas played Trikweze Bridges (4-0 int) and Alijah Clark (4-2) at safety last week.

Guru's IDP Notes: Denver Broncos

The Texans are another excellent matchup for linebackers. Not so much in the big play columns, but since week four, the position has averaged nearly 25 combined stops and a pass breakup against them. Alex Singleton is a must-start in this one, and Justin Strnad becomes a viable option in a pinch.

Patrick Surtain II Jr. left the week eight contest with a pectoral strain and did not return. He is out for week nine and could potentially miss several more. The biggest fantasy impact from this could be on the other side of the ball, where our Texans' receivers get a boost. Kris Abrams-Draine stepped in on Sunday and is expected to get the start. It is unclear if he will be considered the CB1 or if that role will fall to Riley Moss. Either way, Moss is a solid start in this one while Abrams-Draine, who turned his opportunity into a solid 5-4 last week, becomes a high upside sleeper.  

Texans are a tough matchup for pass rushers, allowing roughly six combined stops and one sack per game to the position since week four.

Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers

Edgerrin Cooper and Quay Walker have been solid for us, but Cooper in particular has fallen short of expectations. This is largely because the team has been so successful on both sides of the ball. The offense is winning time of possession on most weeks, and the defense gets off the field on third downs. The Panthers are a gambler's matchup. When the games stay close, they will ride the running game, and linebackers put up good numbers. When they fall behind, they struggle to keep the offense on the field.   

Regardless of game flow, linemen have been putting up good numbers against them. The edge position is averaging almost 8 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 1.2 turnovers since week four.

Guru's IDP Notes: Houston Texans

With seven tackles and an interception, Kamari Lassiter is coming off his most productive game of the season, but not his only productive one. He has quietly become one of the fantasy game's more dependable options at the position. Lassiter has at least five combined stops in six of seven games with double-digit points in four of them, including each of the last three. Denver does a good job of protecting the ball, so there may not be many splash play opportunities this week, but the corner position tends to make a lot of tackles with this matchup.

While they are a solid if unspectacular matchup for corners, Denver is an ugly matchup for linemen. Tackle totals are below average with the matchup, and the Broncos have given up five sacks since week three. If you have the option of sitting Liam Anderson or Danielle Hunter, consider it.

Guru's IDP Notes: Indianapolis Colts

Unless you had DeForest Buckners or maybe Kenny Moore II, the Colts killed us last week. Nick Cross finished 2-1, Zaire Franklin 0-2, etc. This game was so far out of hand so early that Indianapolis was pulling starters in the third quarter. The game should be much closer, but don't expect big numbers from any of your Colts' defenders again this week. The Steelers don't allow many sacks, Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw many interceptions, and no position consistently excels in the tackle department against them.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Las Vegas Raiders