The New Reality No.250: Projecting 2026 Breakout RBs

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football, including everything from team-building and player evaluations to NFL research and forecasting.

Chad Parsons's The New Reality No.250: Projecting 2026 Breakout RBs Chad Parsons Published 12/16/2025

Identifying bounce-back or breakout players for the following season is a long-standing strategy to maximize roster value in the offseason. Here are my favorite bets for an uptick in 2026:

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Running Backs

Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas

Why: Projecting an elite running back prospect, who was drafted at sixth overall, to turn a corner in Year 2 is a natural progression. Watching the Raiders this season (not recommended) quickly makes it clear how a poor offensive line and minimal presence at wide receiver, in combination, can render a running back irrelevant in the offense. Of 58 running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Ashton Jeanty is No.11 in forced missed tackle rate. However, Jeanty is No.51 in the rate of runs resulting in at least 15 yards and No.46 in the percentage of his total rushing yards resulting from those big runs. In short, Jeanty is breaking tackles, but there are so many defenders in his path that he can't create big plays, and it has derailed his entire production equation.

Historically, a Round 1-drafted running back who produced a top 12 finish in Year 2 averaged RB21 in Year 1. Those who finished outside of RB12 in Year 2? They averaged RB47 in Year 1. Despite all of the situational struggles this season, Jeanty sits in the RB20 range as a rookie, right in line with the average top 12 option in Year 2. One more historical data point for Jeanty: running backs drafted in the top 10 move up seven spots in positional rankings in Year 2.

Omarion Hampton, LA Chargers

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