Reading the Defense: Week 1

Deployment Matters

Thanks in advance for reading this first edition of “Reading the Defense,” version 2.4. This writer is in his fourth season of writing a column that considers how schematic tendencies and personnel deployment impact fantasy football.

Long-time Footballguy Jene Bramel wrote “Reading the Defense” both in the offseason, in columns like this one that considered changes in coaching, and during the season. “Reading the New Defense” projects how a new coordinator will deploy personnel and implement coverages, the most important differentiators in defenders’ statistical output, in 2025. (The eighth and final installment of 2025 includes links to the previous seven.)

One theme of Bramel’s coverage was decreasing reliance on base personnel, whether 4-3 or 3-4, and the emergence of nickel personnel. Five defensive backs were on the field for the majority of NFL snaps in 2015. Dime personnel – the deployment of six defensive backs – was also increasing. Bramel worried that linebacker was becoming a position of scarcity in fantasy football.

The use of six defensive backs peaked in 2019 and fell back 50 percent by 2024 to just under 1 in 10 defensive snaps. Nickel personnel, meanwhile, continued to increase in frequency, peaking above two-thirds of snaps in 2023.

This writer covered the widespread adoption of nickel personnel in Weeks 10 and 12 of 2022 as dime usage subsided. The lesson then, as now, is that fantasy gamers have abundant options at the linebacker position.

Advantages of Anticipating Coaching Decisions

Three years on, the fantasy universe has become complacent in expectations that every team will field two “three-down” linebackers. The quest to identify not just one but two linebackers on each team involves sifting through late-round picks, undrafted free agents, and veterans on near-minimum contracts. The error is to promote these finds as priorities ahead of staid players.

It’s often said that the NFL is a copycat league. The Vikings were among 2024’s biggest surprises, including a defense that ranked third in efficiency and tied for first in turnovers forced. They also led the league in middle-of-the-field open coverages and dime personnel.

Deployment of nickel personnel ticked downward in 2024 for the first time since 2019. This might be a blip, but offseason investment in players suggests otherwise. This March, four off-ball linebackers signed unrestricted free-agent contracts with average annual values greater than $5 million. Eight safeties and fifteen cornerbacks cleared the threshold of $5 million AAV in free agency.

In April, 13 cornerbacks were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Seven safeties and four linebackers were similarly honored. All four teams that drafted these linebackers anticipated openings in the middle of their defenses due to injury (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Nakobe Dean), free agency (Dre Greenlaw), or a ballooning contract (Germaine Pratt). While cornerback is a higher-priority position, which explains the larger numbers, recent salary investment trends indicate that the linebacker and safety positions are similar. Safeties have recently trailed linebackers in draft capital.

Indianapolis Colts