Reading the New Defense returns for its third season at Footballguys.com. The column examines how new defensive coordinators affect the fantasy prospects of individual defensive players for the upcoming season.
Eleven NFL defenses have new coordinators in 2024. While three of them offer general scheme consistency year over year, eight more promise significant changes to their new environs in 2025. Just two of these coordinators' track records suggest they will change between even- and odd-front nomenclature.
Previous installments: Falcons | Saints | Bears | Cowboys | Jaguars | Colts | Jets
The Patriot Way 2.0
By some accounts, the Patriots are changing defensive schemes for the first time in a quarter century. Bill Belichick assumed head coaching duties in New England in 2000. Belichick's former inside linebacker, Jerod Mayo, succeeded him in 2024 but lasted just one year. Mayo maintained the status quo, a defensive approach that frustrated fantasy analysts and gamers alike.
New head coach Mike Vrabel and his defensive coordinator, Terrell Williams, are installing a scheme that more closely aligns with the rest of the league. Vrabel led the Titans from 2018 to 2023 and oversaw the defense while delegating playcalling duties. For several years, Vrabel collaborated with veteran coordinator Dean Pees, but after Pees retired, the scheme largely became Vrabel's. Shane Bowen, a position coach under Pees, called plays for Vrabel in 2022 and 2023. Bowen now runs his own scheme as the Giants' defensive coordinator.
Like Mayo, Vrabel also played many years for Belichick. Ideas from his playing time influence his coaching. Most notably, Vrabel will use hybrid fronts. Now that most defensive coordinators employ multiple fronts, hybrid fronts no longer stand out as they once did. The difference is that teams with multiple fronts can switch from an even front to an odd front, often by substituting personnel. A hybrid front is odd on one side of the defense and even on the other. Ideally, the front could mirror without substituting to confuse opposing protections.
It was often said that Belichick "liked" to rotate his running backs. In a 2018 interview, he explained why he did not. Situational substitution enabled opposing units to key on a limited player. Belichick preferred multifaceted players with positional flexibility like Mike Vrabel, who played inside and outside linebacker. In another interview, Belichick explained that his hybrid front was born of necessity. He explained that a 330-pound nose tackle who could rush that passer was vanishingly rare. Furthermore, NFL teams struggle to find two 280-pound defensive ends with three-down ability for a 4-3 front.
Fantasy analysts struggled to designate positions for New England defenders throughout the Belichick era. Keion White, for instance, was tagged a defensive tackle in 2024 on multiple fantasy football platforms. Most wanted to box the unit into either 4-3 or 3-4 personnel for the sake of ease up and down the depth chart. The overlapping nature of roles and capabilities between starters and reserves decreased certainty in position designations.
Scheme Differences That Matter
Almost all NFL defenses utilize a 4-2-5 nickel subpackage for the majority of their defensive reps. Unlike Tom Landry's 4-3 Flex defense, the defensive ends of the current-day 4-2-5 line up wide of the offensive tackles. Twenty-first-century NFL defenses differ from one another in three primary ways that impact IDP statistical output.
Rush Strategy
Some teams ask their pass rushers to mush rush or two-gap, while select linemen on other teams have the green light to get upfield with reckless abandon. The former duties are integral to run defense, wherein the defender must account for more than one running lane. Green-lit defensive tackles, meanwhile, can shoot one gap and have higher sack upside.
Bill Belichick served under Bill Parcells as defensive coordinator in the 20th century when the Giants were winning Super Bowls. The duo elevated the 3-4 to new heights. In his heart, Belichick was first an odd-front practitioner. He sought to build a wall at the line of scrimmage to stymie opposing run games. His approach is well illustrated by one of his last playoff games. Derrick Henry and the Titans famously eviscerated Belichick's defense just a year after it foiled the Rams' high-octane offense in the Super Bowl.
Zone Vs. Man Coverage
Zone coverage by a defense significantly improves the inside linebackers' rate of tackling per snap. A coach's historical tendencies and the personnel available to him for the upcoming season empower us to make educated guesses as to how often a defense will use zone coverage and, to an extent, how efficiently the inside linebackers will make tackles.
#FFIDP - Most efficient coverage schemes for LB tackling in 2024:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 9, 2025
Cover-2: 15.8%
Cover-6: 15.7%
Cover-4: 14.9%
Cover-3: 14.5%
AVERAGE LB TKL EFFICIENCY: 13.1%
Cover-1: 10.4%
Cover-0: 7.9%
2-MAN: 7.5%
Reminder: Zone-heavy defenses are a cheat code for IDP while man-heavy ones… https://t.co/FXZdUm3Jdd
Belichick long preferred man coverage. Vrabel and Pees also leaned on Cover-1, but after Pees retired, Vrabel's coverages aligned more closely with league averages. The Titans differed from the Patriots in that Vrabel used his safeties more interchangeably as his defense evolved. The Titans' left and right safeties reflected league-wide trends while Belichick continued to prefer safety/linebacker hybrids to accompany a free safety in the back end.
One High Vs. Two High Safeties
Two-high coverages have received disproportionate attention from mainstream media in this decade. Only the Vikings showed them more than half the time in 2024. Two-high coverages have, however, grown in use over the past ten years and made volume tacklers at the safety position harder to spot. Reduced competition from safeties in the middle of the field marginally improves inside linebackers' tackling prospects.
A team that plays predominantly one-high coverages can infuse one of its two safeties with a statistical uptick if it deploys one, typically the strong safety, close to the line of scrimmage more frequently than the other. For reference, Pro Football Focus collects tackle efficiencies for safeties by alignment in the defense.
#FFIDP - For safety rankings/projections, knowing how unstable that fantasy production can be, rankings start with playing time and potential deployment because...
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 16, 2025
Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment in 2024:
BOX: 11.3% 🔥
SLOT: 10.4% 👍
-- Average: 9.6% --
DEEP:…
2024 proved lucrative for fantasy gamers chasing strong safeties in one-high defenses. The in-season version of this column closed by debriefing this phenomenon.
Patriots Defensive Tackles
The Patriots' defense will be built on 3-4 structure, according to Mike Vrabel. Khyiris Tonga, a 338-pound nose tackle, joins the team to play 0-technique in the middle of odd fronts.
Vrabel further explains that most NFL defenses are in base personnel 20 percent of the time. The Patriots will play two-thirds or more of their snaps in even fronts. They recouped a seventh-round pick from the Saints to move on from two-gapping run defender Davon Godchaux. Godchaux played the second-most snaps among Patriots defensive linemen in 2024 and is due $4 million this season.
Unrestricted free agent Milton Williams signed a $104 million contract to take Godchaux's place in the rotation. The reallocation of resources away from Godchaux to Tonga and Williams indicates more frequent one-gapping along the Patriots' front line in 2025.
Incumbent starter Christian Barmore will join Tonga and Williams as starters. Blood clots limited Barmore to four games last year. His pass rush was sorely missed. He broke out in 2023 with 8.5 sacks and 64 combined tackles, including 13 for loss, in a deep rotation.
Both Barmore and Williams have shown proficiency in diverse roles for New England and Philadelphia, respectively. They have the highest upside of almost any interior duo in the league.
What a #Patriots DL led by Christian Barmore, Milton Williams, and Keon White is capable of pic.twitter.com/ZYUjb4wrhR
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) May 15, 2025
Patriots Edge Defenders
Keion White might be the 280-pound defensive end with pass-rush juice that Bill Belichick prized. He opened 2024, his second NFL season, with 4.0 sacks in two games but faded down the stretch.
Anfrenee Jennings bookended the defense opposite White as the outside linebacker in the hybrid front. Jennings made 30 starts in 31 appearances over the past two seasons and made 144 combined tackles. No NFL edge defender playing 1,500 snaps has collected fewer quarterback sacks (4.0) than Jennings since 2023.
Jennings will compete for a reserve role with former first-round pick K'Lavon Chaisson. The Jaguars' bust revived his career with 5.0 sacks in a reserve role with the Raiders in 2024.
Harold Landry III was an early second-round pick in Vrabel's first Tennessee draft class and joins Vrabel in New England this season. The former Titan became a starter late in his rookie season of 2018 and missed 2022 with an injury. In his other five campaigns, Landry averaged 70.6 combined tackles and 9.2 sacks in a role similar to Jennings's.
Patriots Linebackers
Bill Belichick employed 250-pound off-ball linebackers throughout his tenure in New England, long after most of the rest of the league evolved to develop college moneybackers and safeties like Fred Warner, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Divine Deablo, and Jamien Sherwood into NFL linebackers.
Jahlani Tavai is the only remaining Belichick prototype in the 2025 linebacker room. He has competition for a spot on the 53. The Patriots brought in two of Vrabel's depth pieces, Jack Gibbens and Monty Rice, to compete for reserve roles. Linebacker/safety hybrid Marte Mapu is also competing at linebacker after playing safety last year.
The holdover more likely to start at linebacker is Christian Elliss, whom New England picked up in the middle of last season to compensate for injuries. Elliss surprised with 80 combined tackles. The 230-pounder received an offer sheet as a restricted free agent from the Raiders, and the Patriots matched it.
Elliss would pair with former Las Vegas LB1 Robert Spillane. The unrestricted free agent signed a 3-year $33 million deal to don the green dot for Mike Vrabel and Terrell Williams this year.
Christian Elliss is a very solid pickup for the #Raiders.. The guy played a ton for the first time in his career at 25 years old, and he had a really productive year. Low risk, high upside! pic.twitter.com/53uz6Tz1O6
— Sanjit T. (@Sanjit__T) March 19, 2025
Patriots Coverages
The 2023 Titans deployed dime personnel at the third-highest rate in the league (23.2%). The Patriots ranked first that year. New England added more depth to its safety room this offseason. Christian Elliss, with just six career starts under his belt, might play two-thirds of his unit's snaps in 2024, provided he and Spillane stay healthy.
The Patriots played man coverage 40.5 percent of the time in 2024, a rate nearly identical to that of Detroit, where Terrell Williams coached last season. The former defensive line coach brought cornerback Carlton Davis III with him from Detroit. Davis will pair with Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots' 2023 first-round pick and one of the league's most promising young cover corners.
Whether or not the 2025 Patriots continue their man coverage rate apace will depend as much on their safeties as on Davis. Starters Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers both missed time in 2024. Dugger underwent tightrope surgery for a high-ankle sprain that nagged him all last year. Peppers was acquitted of criminal proceedings in January.
With Peppers away from the team, Dugger played through pain and struggled. Peppers is best known as one of many busts that Cleveland drafted in the first round; however, he has developed into an adequate NFL starter capable of playing deep, overhang, and in the box. Dugger, meanwhile, is a Pro Bowler at the second level but inconsistent deep.
Both starting safeties are 29, and the Patriots have hedged their bets for 2025 with small investments. Marcus Epps, a former starter in Philadelphia and Las Vegas, signed for $2.025 million. The team used a fourth-round pick on free safety Craig Woodson. Holdover Jaylinn Hawkins also remains in the mix for $2.5 million.
Marcus Jones returns at nickel. He's not the liability in run defense that his size suggests (5'8, 188 pounds). The Patriots used two-high-safety structures 34.1 percent of the time in 2024, close to the league average (37.1%). Mike Vrabel and Terrell Williams could choose to maintain or slightly increase this rate of MOFO use in part to manage exposure of their safeties in centerfield. This would increase Jones's exposure to run fits.
I'm working to identify the most underrated player on every NFL team for a tiktok series:
— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) May 2, 2025
for the Patriots, it's Marcus Jones pic.twitter.com/lJBrAJZQ8w
2025 Patriots Defense Outlook
Safe projections of New England personnel and coverage usage rates fall between the league average and the Patriots' recent utilization rates. Their rate of dime personnel – behind both odd and even fronts – could reach 20 percent. Their use of man coverage should range between 33 and 40 percent.
The roster is lighter and faster in 2025. The team's offseason roster moves prioritize pass defense over run defense. The development of White and Barmore, together with newcomers Landry and Milton Williams, could ensure that Terrell Williams need not blitz to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. That luxury could allow him to fall back into two-high shells more often than the 2024 Patriots.
The team has numerous new pieces, including a rookie defensive play-caller in Williams. Half of the defense's 12 starters (including nickel and nose tackle) differ from the 2024 opener. The unit took a step backward under first-time head coach Jerod Mayo but is poised to bounce back in 2025. It has adequate-to-good veterans at linebacker and safety to support several young players at cornerback and defensive line who could be rising stars.
A more aggressive approach combined with talent should support a significant increase in big plays throughout the unit. The 2024 Patriots finished last in quarterback sacks (28) and tied for 31st in turnovers (12).
2025 Patriots IDP Outlook
Last year's lack of big plays, coupled with perennial underperformance by tacklers, has fantasy gamers avoiding the Patriots like redcoats fleeing the Siege of Boston. In FastDraft Fantasy's D-Up tournament, a shallow IDP best-ball format, only Robert Spillane is regularly drafted.
Ironically, Spillane is overvalued. He's the 11th linebacker and 26th overall player off the board following consecutive LB1 seasons in Las Vegas. In a New England defense playing significantly more man coverage, Spillane is best targeted as an LB2. Only once did a linebacker make more than 113 tackles combined in Mike Vrabel's six seasons in Tennessee.
Harold Landry III is a perennial top-20 fantasy edge defender, and he's going behind cornerbacks by average draft position. Even a cautious approach to his change of scenery and possible loss of volume makes him worth a pick as the 31st edge defender selected in FastDraft.
Denico Autry was the defensive end in Tennessee's hybrid front from 2021 to 2023. He averaged 36 combined tackles, 18 tackles for loss, and 9.5 quarterback sacks in those seasons. Keion White has similar upside in this role for the 2025 Patriots, which would make him a solid DE3 for fantasy gamers. On platforms where he's eligible as a defensive tackle, White is a DT1 candidate despite the prospect of an incremental decline in playing time from his 829 snaps in 2024.
Christian Barmore has a DT1 season under his belt. He finished 6th on the Footballguys leaderboard for the position with solid tackle and sack totals in relatively modest playing time of 66 percent of snaps. With a clean bill of health, he's a candidate to repeat the feat.
Milton Williams has never played half his team's snaps, but the biggest prize among free-agent defensive tackles will surely see more work in 2025. The former third-round pick showed great promise as the Eagles' defense gelled in the playoffs. The idea of three DT1s on the same team might seem highly improbable; however, Keion White has the inside track to a role as a 7- and 9-technique in subpackages. White, Barmore, Williams, and Landry should be the most frequent line-up in even fronts, pending health. Chaisson could replace White in obvious passing situations.
Fantasy gamers hungered for Kyle Dugger to play full-time for years. It finally happened in 2023. Dugger cleared 100 tackles for the first time and finished 13th among fantasy safeties. FastDraft Fantasy gamers are ignoring Dugger after a rough 2024 campaign, but he has the upside to reprise his role as a fantasy SAF2. The likelihood of continued use of two-high shells and the possibility of interchangeability with Peppers should dissuade gamers from making him their first safety. He might revert to a part-time role under the new regime, in which case, gamers can pivot to an early-season waiver claim.
Jabrill Peppers made 40 tackles combined in just six games last year, a pace that would easily clear 100 for a season. He is worth a roster spot in deep leagues. He and Dugger might frustrate gamers in roles that make it impossible to project the more prolific compiler from week to week.
In 2019, Logan Ryan became the first-ever nickelback to outpace all safeties in fantasy points. He played for Mike Vrabel's Tennessee Titans. Vrabel's nickelback this year, Marcus Jones, made 58 tackles in just 586 snaps last year. If Jones's role on defense grows, he could sneak into fantasy relevance. Gamers who benefit from return yardage should target Jones in cornerback-required leagues.
Autumn Plans
Reading the New Defense ran on Thursdays throughout June and July. The in-season complement, Reading the Defense, will drop each Friday morning. The column will cover the sustainability of player breakouts, schematic trends, and evolving personnel deployment. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the knowledge and confidence to draft players for their rosters for deployment on Sundays this coming fall. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer, @DynastyTripp, on the app formerly known as Twitter.
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