Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Buffalo vs Cincinnati
James Cook is the backbone of the Bills' offense this season. It’s a two-man race for the league’s leading rusher, and Cook is just 54 yards behind Jonathan Taylor. Averaging 5.3 yards per carry, this has become a run-first offense behind Cook, and the volume that historically has been a concern no longer exists. He’s averaging 19.3 carries per game, which is second in the NFL, just behind Christian McCaffrey. To average 5.3 yards per carry on that volume is remarkable, and would normally put him as a favorite for Offensive Player of the Year if Taylor were not having the season that he was having. The big question mark for Buffalo this week is the health of both tackles, as Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown missed last week and were limited participants at Wednesday’s practice, which is a good sign they should be close to returning this week.
Cincinnati has shown some improvement in recent weeks, holding Derrick Henry to just 60 yards on Thanksgiving. However, that was a game in which Cincinnati was able to use its offense to game plan Baltimore out of running the ball, as Henry had just 10 carries to get those 60 yards. This is still very much a flawed defense, as since Week 2, every running back has run for 60 yards or more against the Bengals. The good news is that with Joe Burrow back, the Bengals can put pressure on opponents to the point where they aren’t trailing for a majority of the game, leading to even more run volume. It’s looking likely that the Bengals will be without Trey Hendrickson once again, as the All-Pro defensive end did not practice on Wednesday. If he’s unable to go, this will continue to put pressure on Cincinnati, as they’ve yet to find success with former first-round pick Myles Murphy unable to step in. The struggles for Cincinnati are not due to a lack of effort. This is a team that has invested heavily through the draft over the last two years; it’s just that they have not been able to find regular starters. At linebacker, they’re starting two rookies in fourth-round Barrett Carter and second-round Demetrius Knight Jr. Both players have been among the worst run-stopping linebackers in the NFL, and until they’re able to solve that problem, expect the Bengals to continue to be a defense you want to target players against.
Cincinnati at Buffalo
Chase Brown continues to be a different player as of late. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry compared to his first nine games, in which he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Volume has also seen a significant increase as he’s averaging 17.3 carries per game over the last three weeks. What’s most impressive is that he is the only running back to top 100 yards against the vaunted New England defense. Some of the reasons for the improvement have been along the offensive line. This was one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL to start the season, but they have shown continuous improvement each week. Rookie left guard Dylan Fairchild has started to show that he’s capable of starting in the NFL. There’s still a long way to go to say that this offensive line is completely fixed, but even right tackle Amarius Mims has started to show improvement in his second season.
Buffalo’s Achilles Heel this season has been their run defense. We did see some marginal improvement last week against Pittsburgh, as Buffalo held Jaylen Warren to just 35 rushing yards on 10 carries, although Warren did score a touchdown. This year, Buffalo is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Allowing 5.0 yards per carry and a league-worst 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game. The other teams in the top 5 of touchdowns allowed are the Titans, the Las Vegas Raiders, the New York Jets, and the Arizona Cardinals. Long story short, if not for Josh Allen and this offense, this run defense has stats that would indicate they should be a three-win team. Injuries have been a major issue for Buffalo, and this week is no different. Both Joey Bosa and Terel Bernard did not practice on Wednesday and seem unlikely to play this week. This is a defense that is already without their top safeties, their top defensive tackle in Ed Oliver, and they’ve been dealing with linebacker issues most of the year. Linebacker Matt Milano continues to be a liability, which is a problem given the issue at defensive tackle, as Larry Ogunjobi has not been the run-stopper that he has been throughout his career.
Minnesota vs Washington