Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for. All else being equal, I'll try to focus on prime-time games and the most entertaining spots on the schedule. However, I won't force plays just to have action on every night game.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Payouts
Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:
- Two picks: 3x your entry
- Three picks: 6x your entry
- Four picks: 10x your entry
- Five picks: 20x your entry
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week: (2-3), -$54
- Season: (7-8), -$148
We came close to a big hit on anytime touchdowns for Travis Etienne Jr. (who scored) and Chase Brown. Brown was tackled inches shy of the end zone, and the QB sneaked it in on the next play. We'd be close to even on the season if Brown fell a few inches further, but the NFL is a game of inches.
Week 3 Pick Em Selections
Pick 1
-
Jefferson has topped 79 receiving yards in 51 of his last 77 games (66.2%). This week he faces a Bengals secondary that could be shorthanded with two of its top three cornerbacks limited in practice due to hamstring injuries. Cincinnati has already allowed 280.5 passing yards per game, the fifth-most in the NFL.
-
If you are into narratives, this matchup also sets up a head-to-head duel between Jefferson and former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase, widely regarded as the two best wide receivers in the league.
Reporter: "Are you allowed to Griddy in Minnesota in Justin Jefferson's house?"
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) September 19, 2025
Ja'Marr Chase: "If he doesn't want me to, I'm going to do it purposefully ... I want to piss him off." 😂
Bengals vs Vikings on Sunday 🍿🍿
pic.twitter.com/NIlcSAyRrt https://t.co/2kbYLjVda5
-
Brown has had at least 16 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 games and has seen three or more targets in 11 straight contests.
-
With Jake Browning under center, the Bengals offense is emphasizing quick passes. Browning averaged a league-low time to throw of 2.34 seconds in Week 2, which should keep Brown involved as a frequent outlet option.
Joe Mixon in 2023
— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) September 15, 2025
18.1 PPG in Jake Browning's 7 starts
14.0 PPG in Joe Burrow's 10 games
Chase Brown might be fine?