Buyer Beware: 6 IDP Stars Set to Backslide in 2026

It happens to the best of us—each and every year.

For whatever reason, every year IDP managers fail to see the proverbial writing on the wall where some defensive players are concerned. Sometimes, it's a matter of "chasing ghosts" and prioritizing past production over present potential and situation. Sometimes, we just refuse to admit that aging players have hit the point of no return. Sometimes, it's a matter of failing to recognize that an outlier season is just that—an outlier.

At day's end, the reason doesn't matter. All that does is that we fail to see the signs. Fail to recognize the sigils. And then by Halloween we hate ourselves for loving a guy on draft day.

If you don't like Joan Jett, we can't be friends. Sorry.

Regression is a big part of IDP—albeit a depressing one. Every season there are players who can't repeat the previous year's success. Guys who come up short—both of what was and what is expected. It can be that much more pronounced at positions like the defensive line and defensive back—spots that are more reliant on big plays for fantasy production.

You can't always see it coming—not even if you have my combination of immense knowledge, psychic foresight, and rugged good looks.

But sometimes, that writing is in eight-foot neon letters.

Even I have a hard time missing those.

2026 IDP Regression Candidates

EDGE Brian Burns, NY Giants

"Spider-Man" had himself a Brand New Day (Look Ma! I'm topical!) last year—in his second season with the G-Men, the 28-year-old set a career-high in total tackles (67) and had more sacks than any player in the NFL not named Myles Garrett on the way to finishing with more fantasy points than any edge-rusher in the NFC in The Godfather's Default IDP Scoring. While addressing the media, Burns said he's excited to see what the Giants defense can do under new coordinator Dennard Wilson.

"Everybody is 0-0," he said. "They're seeing the pieces they have. But I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel this is a little different. I was a little excited, and I expect highly of this team. I'd be lying if I didn't say that. But at the end of the day, like I say, you've gotta prove it. It's (not) just about being happy and optimistic. You've gotta get on the field, and you've got to prove it against another team and impose your will on them."

Burns was admittedly fantastic last year. But in seven professional seasons, Burns has posted double-digit sacks just twice. He's also being tasked with a different role in 2026—training camp reports indicate Abdul Carter is lining up over the left tackle, while Burns is drawing the strong side.

Carter has a real chance to out-point Burns in IDP leagues this year.

EDGE Josh Sweat, Arizona

In terms of sacks, Sweat's first year in the desert was the best of his eight-year career—he logged a dozen sacks and hit double digits in the category for the first time since he had 11 with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022. A sore knee landed the 29-year-old on the PUP list to open camp, but new head coach Mike LaFleur told reporters that Sweat's Week 1 status isn't in jeopardy.

The cool part about Josh is everyone's been on the same page the entire time," LaFleur said. "You guys can believe me or not, I'm not worried about Josh Sweat at all in terms of his health and all that. [He needs] a little bit more time, he's logged a lot of miles in this league as well. I think not only for Josh to peak on September 13, but Josh to also get through that the rigors of a 17-game season the way that he plays and the motor that he plays with, I think this is best for him and the Cardinals."

Sweat's ouchie knee isn't the issue for fantasy managers. Neither is a new staff in Arizona. The bigger issue is Sweat's terrible tackle numbers in 2025. Sweat may have set a career-high in sacks, but his 30 total tackles were a career-low as a full-time starter. Any time a player is this dependent on big plays, the odds of regression skyrocket.

LB Devin Bush, Chicago