We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Miami Dolphins Coin-Toss Questions:
- What fantasy tier is Malik Willis?
- Will defenses keying on Achane hinder his fantasy value?
- Where do you rank Greg Dulcich?
- Will the WR1 and WR2 come from the draft?
- How do you rank the three veteran receivers if Miami tanks?
Q: Malik Willis signing in Miami was hardly a surprise, but he signed a team-friendly deal that doesn't commit the organization to him for long. What fantasy tier do you view Willis in this season?
Meng Song: I'd rank him as a high-floor fantasy QB2 due to his rushing ability. It could get ugly quickly, given the state of the Dolphins' offensive line and lack of receiving talent. Based on the moves the team has made this offseason, they seem to be embracing the tank, with Jeff Hafley and Malik Willis potentially only serving bridge roles. "Packers South" could be a very short-lived experiment depending on the Dolphins' draft position in 2027.
Maurile Tremblay: I'd place Malik Willis in a low-end QB2 or streaming-only tier for fantasy purposes in 2026 — somewhere around QB20-QB28. Willis is being handed the starting job outright, which gives him a full 17-game runway to produce. His biggest fantasy asset is his outstanding rushing upside, but offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and new quarterbacks coach Bush Hamdan will develop him as a passer as well. But there are plenty of reasons for pessimism. The Dolphins gutted their receiving corps. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both gone, and the wideout group is a significant area of weakness. The team is in rebuilding mode with less focus on winning now. The franchise absorbed a record $99.2 million dead cap hit from the Tua Tagovailoa release, so the surrounding roster is unlikely to be significantly upgraded before the start of the season. The 2026 season will be an evaluation window for Willis, not a year where he's expected to carry the offense. If he doesn't establish himself, the team will pivot to the 2027 draft class. The projected team-wide struggles will cap his fantasy ceiling despite his rushing upside.
Jeff Haseley: For me, Willis is a tier-4 fantasy quarterback who can be looked upon as a high-upside backup or a desperation QB2 in Superflex leagues, if you're daring. He has the rushing skills to be relevant if he starts, but his job security is thin. The battle during camp with Quinn Ewers should shed some more light on the situation.
VERDICT: We're all in agreement, Willis is a speculative Q2 on draft day.
As my co-workers have explained, this situation feels much more like a transitional reset than the start of something special. Things can always turn out better than expected, but given the cap purge, dead cap hits, and current roster talent, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where everything clicks for Willis in 2026. I would have been more open to this organizational rebuild if the team had made a real financial commitment to him; instead, this is a team-friendly deal that requires nothing more than letting him succeed or fail in 2026. I project Willis as QB21, and that’s giving him credit for being a better passer than we necessarily know him to be outside of LaFleur’s tailored system.
Q: De'Von Achane is the only playmaker left on the roster, do you believe that will hinder his fantasy value this year as defenses can, and will, key on him?
Meng Song: Absolutely. I'm quite a bit lower than ADP on Achane. Much of his ability to create yards-after-the-catch was due to Mike McDaniel's quick-passing scheme, along with Tyreek Hill keeping defenses honest. Without the threat of Hill (or Waddle), defenses probably won't be afraid of Malik Willis and company hurting them downfield. New offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik shouldn't shoulder all the blame for the Houston Texans' struggles, but he didn't instill much confidence as their play-caller, either. Much like the Texans, Miami's offensive line doesn't project as a strong suit. I think Achane is mispriced by an entire round with his current best ball ADP at the Round 1-2 turn. He belongs more so at the Round 2-3 turn.
Maurile Tremblay: I'd argue that concentrated defensive attention won't actually hurt Achane's fantasy value much. Part of what stands out about Achane's 2025 production was his receiving volume. Even if defenses load the box and scheme to take away the run, Achane's role as the primary pass-catching back gives him a built-in floor that stacked boxes can't eliminate. In fact, if defenses sell out to stop the run, that could create more checkdown and screen opportunities where Achane excels. Bobby Slowik's offense needs someone to move the chains, and after Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle's departures, Achane is far and away the most talented skill player on the roster. His workload will be voluminous. Frequent garbage time won't work against Achane's fantasy production either. His dual-threat ability means he'll stay on the field in all situations. He's not a plodder who gets pulled in the two-minute drill. I'd put Achane in the RB6 to RB10 range. Defenses will key on him, but they were already doing that last year, and he still led the league in yards per carry. If the Dolphins' offense as a whole remains dim in 2025, Achane will remain its bright spot.
Jeff Haseley: Yes, it's a concern. With the roster currently stripped of other major playmakers, defenses will absolutely focus on and bracket Achane. His efficiency might drop, but his volume should stay high, giving him fantasy appeal through sheer usage.
VERDICT: He remains a Top 10 option, with greater week-to-week volatility.
I genuinely see both sides of this debate; generally speaking, it's not a great idea to invest early draft capital in skill players on bad offenses. However, I lean more toward Maurile's position on this one for now. The rest of the roster is so barren of explosive playmakers that I expect Achane's role to expand. He’ll be the key piece of the game plan across all downs and distances. While projecting a material downshift in yards-per-rush is sensible, I also believe he’s going to see a larger share of the workload and should remain a high-volume receiving asset, especially considering those he’ll be competing with for targets.
