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DJ Moore Is Worth Much More
Currently sitting at a head-scratching ADP of WR26, the market is pricing Moore as a fringe WR2 or WR3 based entirely on rear-view mirror bias from last year's downshifted production in Chicago. It's a massive miscalculation that completely ignores his new reality. Moore is now the locked-in, undisputed WR1 for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
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Even a conservative baseline projection puts his current ADP to shame, but it's the elite upside case that could easily see him pushing for top-12 honors that makes him a legitimate league-winner. Our projections have him locked in at WR17, establishing Moore as an absolute steal and one of the premier values at any position on the board.
A Top 25 Fixture
Fantasy managers are a confusing lot. For some players, we're quick to overlook a disappointing season and assume it's an outlier. Lamar Jackson is a perfect example. The mercurial quarterback has been elite at times, but he's actually finished QB15 or worse in three of the last five seasons, is coming off a QB20 finish, yet is being drafted as the No. 2 quarterback behind Josh Allen. I could cite quite a few similar cases. Yet, for other players, we tend to look at a disappointing season as a new lower baseline, and a player's perceived value plummets.
Moore appears to be squarely in that camp following an unquestionably disappointing season in Chicago.
- Starts: 17
- Targets: 85
- Target Share: 14.8%
- Receptions: 50
- Receiving Yards: 682
- Yards per Reception: 13.6
- Receiving Touchdowns: 6
- Overall Finish: WR32
His disappointing WR32 finish was driven by a confluence of factors. One, new head coach Ben Johnson implemented a new system. Two, the team is rebuilding around a trio of younger talents in Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland. Three, Moore appeared frustrated by the de-emphasis of his role, and that likely caused further tension and incentivized even less playing time. But looking under the covers, there was no indication Moore endured any kind of age- or injury-related decline. His 13.6 yards per reception average is right in line with his career mark, while his touchdown rate was actually higher than his career average. His catch rate (59%) was slightly lower than his career mark, but Caleb Williams had one of the lowest completion rates in the NFL last year.
And even the "he wasn't as good as the young players" argument falls short when you consider what Moore did in the Bears' two playoff games: