Tyler Shough: Legitimate Fantasy QB3 or Paper Champion?
The Tyler Shough experiment in New Orleans is entering its 15th game. We often need 18-30 games to see if an NFL quarterback is a legitimate starter who can be the foundation for an offense.
The early returns are promising, statistically:
- 14 games
- 459 attempts
- 68.2 percent completion rate
- 3,301 yards
- 7.19 yards per attempt
- 18 touchdowns
- 9 interceptions
- 59 rushing attempts
- 253 yards
- 4 rushing TDs
Draftniks often state concern that a 26-year-old rookie quarterback doesn't have enough growth potential to develop into a quality NFL starter. Considering that the NFL doesn't have a proven process for evaluating and/or developing quarterback talent, I didn't get hung up on Tyler Shough being a 26-year-old rookie.
There are bigger variables to figure out. The biggest one: Does Shough process the game well? Let's look at some clues that will help us answer the question: Legit or another paper champion "franchise passer" who might get his flowers too early?
Tyler Shough's 2026 Touchdowns Weeks 1-3
Here are all eight of Shough's touchdowns. There are worthwhile patterns we should note. See if you can spot them if you have the time. If not, I'm listing them after the video.
Tyler Shough's 2026 TDs, Weeks 1-3 #Saints pic.twitter.com/rebPeja4QJ
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2026
Here's what I gleaned from the tape.
- Six of Shough's eight touchdowns were thrown to his tight ends and two to wide receivers.
- Five of his eight touchdowns were thrown against man coverage -- Cover 1 and Cover 0.
- Seven of Shough's eight touchdowns came in the red zone -- inside the 20
- 4 inside the 5 (Green Zone)
- 6 inside the 10
- 7 inside the 20
- 1 at the 21
- Pre-snap, there was late motion by a receiver or tight end on all eight passing scores.
- One of the two wide receiver TDs had the pass-catcher on the play motioned just before the snap.
- 3 of the 6 tight end TDs had a pass-catcher on the play motioned just before the snap.
- Over half of Shough's touchdowns were targeting the late-motion receiver.
- Three of the eight TDs were thrown against zone and five against man-to-man.
- Here's what Shough's passing attack was doing with the late motion.
- Two motions were used to get a TE on an LB as the primary defender in zone or a pure 1-on-1.
- Two motions were used to get a WR with a leverage advantage against a zone CB.
- One motion was used to get a WR 1-on-1 with the entire side cleared out for a corner fade.
- Three motions were used to get a TE on a S
Kellen Moore's system is succeeding in the red zone with late motion, and it's almost a 50/50 split between that late motion creating an opportunity for that moving receiver or creating a coverage mismatch for a teammate. That split is the result of good play design and Shough's good reads of the coverage.
The red zone efficiency is impressive overall, and Shough is making efficient work of defenses. What we'll want to see as the season unfolds is whether defenses that play any zone coverage, or if they blitz Shough in the redzone. If his efficiency dips dramatically as a result, that could be a long-term issue.
We'll also want to see if opposing defenses figure out how to counter the way the Saints gain these matchups with Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant. If they do, can Shough make the second read or find a solution with his legs to prevent opponents from foiling successful execution in this area?